MAX BET tonight is Drexel/Towson OVER 130.5

Here's the step by step process of how I come to that conclusion...

(2) First, how did Vegas come to that number? I'd say it's as simple as looking at scoring defense in conf. play: Drexel (65.7) and Towson (69.5). Just under 135 pts combined these two are giving up in  CAA play (4 games for Towson, 3 for Drexel).

(3) While I never leave out a team's overall resume, I focus on their last three games. I want to know what's going on now. Now, Towson is dead last in scoring (62 PPG)/FG% in conf play. But if you take away a humiliating 45 pts vs. N'Estrn, you've got 67, 69, 67 in last three..

(4) Drexel has the 2nd best D in CAA play, giving up 65.7 PPG. But peel back layers. They are extremely weak in the paint. 33, 32 and 42 - that last number hung by UNCW, the 2nd worst scoring O in the conf. 

(5) Towson, in its last 3 games, has rattled off 32, 18, 34 (18 vs. a C of Charleston team that is on a different level than both teams here.

Brian Fobbs and Allen Betrand bring much better half court, dribble-drive penetration than anything UNCW brought to the table...

(6) add in Nakye Sanders underneath, who hung 20 -11 in the paint, vs. Charleston, you can see it's adding up to be a 40+ point night in the paint for Towson, as Towson stands tops in rebounding O, 2nd in O rebounds (behind Drexel). They also are tops in getting to the FT line.

(7) Drexel is 5th best in 3 pt FGs made (7.7 per game). 8, 8 and 11 last three games.

On paper, Towson has a middle of the road 3 pt D (32.6%), but look at the video of their last three games. Weak off the screen, runs a ton of zone (struggles with man)...

(9) a bunch of other transition and points off turnovers stats later, this total should be at about 143.5

Tip-off is 6:00pm Eastern 

Great write up. Going with the play. 

I like the play as well..opening line was 132.5

my book now has it @ 129.5

good value IMO

GL

I stopped right there, you lost all credibility.. Vegas sets a number that they expect to get 50/50 action on.. They gauged the publics opinion when they put it out to some select people to see how they bet it, they adjust it off of that, then they put it out to the general public and the gambling public makes the line.. Thats you, me and everyone who bets the ballgame...Nobody's trying to trick or trap you- 

C'mon guys 

so you took the under I assume? 

No.. They'll probably score 133.5- I'm questioning the relevance of "how did Vegas come to that number?" Who cares?  The number hasn't moved more than a half point either way so the number is correct, its getting 50/50 action which insures a profit for the book

thanks....now at 130.5

This seems like it's going Under.... 

Ok good points made here. I like both ideas.and I like the controversy 

The game is off the board at betonline 

6:00 start....nevermind 

What an amazing super easy win!!! This is the post of the day for sure. Awesome job!!!

did you alert the FBI or authorities????

please don’t as my probation officer won’t like that