Miami vs. UVA Discussion...

The Wahoos are undefeated in Charlottesville. They two games back of UNC for there conference best record. It been going on two full seasons since UVA lost as a home favorite (they lost last year one home game it was to #5 Houston as a 3 point road favorite). Virginia has won 6 of the last 7 matches between these two squads (with Miami winning last year at home). Miami is 2-2 on the road in conference play so far this year (2-4 overall). A quality win at V-Tech as a two point dog and a destruction of shitty Notre Dame as a 5 point favorite. Otherwise 6 point loss to NCST and 3 point loss to Syracuse.

The line opened up at Wahoos -4.5 and almost immediately shot up to -6. Currently line hovers at -6 to -5.5 with recent movements toward Miami.

I personally think getting 6 points in a game like this is generous. Dogs have been bitting. However, if Miami doesn't have a lead or keep it close toward the end of the game UVA could back door the cover at the FT line. They shoot in the 70s as a team which isn't outstanding but good enough. Plus the FT shooters that likely will be taking the shots in the final minutes are more in the mid to high 80s. 

I am leaning taking the points. But love your thoughts.

Get it Jerson.

@jesron1269

 Unders only. 

Liking Miami and the points. They have everyone back now though some guys are probably playing through injury, but they need some quality wins. Virginia has been better than expected but I guess we once again have to tip the hat to Bennett, who always gets his team to buy into the system. Cavs 69-66. 

What’s going to be a low scoring game getting 6 points seems good imho 

Thanks for the input guys. Love to really hear from someone who is going to be laying the points and expects a UVA blowout why they feel that way. Love a contrarian point of view. Personally I think KU kicks the ever loving snot out of KSU today. Most don't. I think KU with a big win at home over Houston rides that momentum to the little apple and blows up a very disappointing K-State squad. BOL!

1H UVA -3.5 -110

1H MIAMI TT UNDER 29.5 -125

expecting a slow start and enough defense by UVA to get through the 1H with a lead 32-28.

But..I have been cold of late!

BOL

TIP

Thanks for the info Tip. What do you think for the full game or you have no opinion on it?

-6 seems to be proof enough,MIA looks like FOOLS GOLD

 Virginia is one of the worse FT team. Saw them play against Clemson the other day and was absolutely horrendous at the end.  Unless Virginia blows them out. I see Miami covering the spread if the game is within 10 pts in the last minute. Cavs terrible FT may cause them the cover. 

Interesting take King. Tell us more. You always have unique prospectives.

Interesting. Never thought 70% as a team with their top three being 88.5%, 77.8% and 77.1% as awful but maybe. 

The are actually 66%. That’s 340th in the country. That’s bad 

Vagina has edge in:

--Defensive efficiency, esp at home...No. 5 defense in CBB, No. 4 at home.

--Steals per possession (almost double)

--Turns per possession (but slight)

Miami has edge:

--Rebound rate

Also, Cavs actually have shot better from the floor than the Canes last 3 games, but not overall.

Another stat: The last 3 games, Vagina shooting 45% from 3ball land, Miami 32%. Something to consider.

Another interesting tidbit: Both teams in the top 10 in 'Fouls per Game' category, so there probably won't be a lot of fouls...the outcome of the spread will more than likely be decided on the floor, not at the charity stripe.

Just based on the stats, Miami is the side with suction at +6. However, laying 6 with a low scoring team could be dicey. I don't think Miami is a smart play, based on the situation and stats, but you never know what will happen. Miami could come out smoking it.

Just some statistics,

RT2

Miami was getting their azz handed to them against Virginia tech and then made a crazy run at the end to cover. Uva can actually control a game with their defense but as you said they are pretty bad behind the line.

@RebelTell2

Interesting stuff.  You playing anything in this game?

@Puerta2Puerta

I remember that with the V-Tech match. Also UVA did basically control the entire game versus V-Tech earlier this year to the tune of a 7 point lead at half and then called the dogs off late 2H to allow Tech to only lose by 8. That could determine the cover too in a 6 point line.

VA has to cover the biggest spread of the day against a team that scores 15 points more in a game

Why do they have to? Because the squares see Miami getting 6 and are all over it?

Because there is NO RISK in betting MIA +6 here

I expect some fuckery in this game. 

I see. Well thanks for you take.

Not yet, but probably will be on Cavs. If they had hung a 8-10 point number on the Cavs, there'd really be some Miami suction.

Alcorn State is the only play for me tonight.

Dude there is almost in every game. I could go on and on about the fuckery I witnesses this weekend. From Creighton's refusal to play any defense. To the ref swallowing his whistle on a clear blocking foul to effectively end the game in that match. To Texas Tech just refusing to pull away and two turnovers seal their fate at home. To Washington's inability to hit free throws the final minute completes the home loss. In this league there is always fuckery.

How.about the Tulane game yesterday. Lol