I don't get the opportunity to post regularly in the forum like previous years anymore (only 2nd post this season), but I had a few extra moments this morning and thought I’d share some thoughts on a side I like tonight beyond the 140 characters that another platform allows for (and it shouldn't be too hard to find me over there).
For those that do remember my write ups, you’ll know that my handicapping is very statistical based and typically focuses on totals.
Play: Missouri St +4
Since facing Tulsa in their season opener, an interesting dichotomy has emerged with Oral Roberts based on the offensive style of their opponent. ORU enters the game tonight allowing their opponents to hit 38.5% of their 3PA -- #302 in the country. But one must consider that three of their L6 opponents (Oregon St, La-Laf, NMexSt) actually rank in the bottom 25% nationally with respect to 3-point distribution. And in those three games, the teams only combined to go 13-34 (38.2%) from behind the arc.
Now consider that in the other three games, they faced three teams (Missouri, Milwaukee, Weber St) that are ranked in the top half with respect to 3-point distribution. In those match-ups, these teams combined to go 30-64 (46.9%) from deep – a dramatic increase in shooting volume and percentage vs the teams not known for their 3 point expertise. Moreover (and maybe logically), these teams went on to post ppp of 1.26, 1.14, and 1.07 respectively.
So why does this all matter? Well tonight, ORU
faces a
Missouri St offense that loves the 3 ball – 38.2% (#83) of their FG
attempts
come from distance and they get 39.0% (#16) of their offensive output
from 3
point makes. But most impressively, the Bears have hit on 45.5% of their
three
point attempts this season – good for second best in the country! This
all leads to an adjOE of 103.8 ppp, bolstered by an eFG% of 52.8% (#62)
Beyond the statistical match-up, there is also a nice situational advantage in my opinion. On paper, ORU may be coming off its best resume win of the season vs New Mexico St (projected WAC champion). But this win should come with a grain of salt as the Aggies were missing their two most important players: starting G Daniel Mullings and starting C Tshilidzi Nephawe.
Furthermore, we get to back a Missouri St team encouraged by the return of stretch 4 Gavin Thurman over the weekend. Not only does Thurman give the Bears some much needed size in the frontcourt; his shooting skills should only add to the Bears’ offensive strength (he hit 37.1% of his 3PA’s in conference play last year; and was 3-3 from beyond the arc on Saturday in his first game back).
And lastly, Missouri St should come in to the Mabee Center confident knowing that they were able to take away 70-67 victory here last year.
Good luck if you decide to make a play
somebody knew more than you with that line movement should of known
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