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Ncaab ATS Streak Breakers for 2013/2014

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stevo1

Captain

Joined: Oct, 2011

Posts: 6398

Posted: Feb. 18, 2014 - 10:23 AM ET #2801

Morn guys that play should had been a definite win/cover as i never pay attention to lines as for me its all about the streak records and even if they were not getting any points i still would had wagered on them as 0-7's record was 12-4 they would cover so quite disappointed they did not cover for all at any point spread

As you may have seen both 3-0's did not cover(166-137) and now (168-137)although recently the record was they would cover thus i passed as record said 13-30 over the last week they would cover but overall record did not agree

N Carolina at 6-0 covers and goes to 7-0 and the only reason i went with them was the 6-0 record of 4-2 over the last week telling me they would cover although just 67% so played for just 1 unit

Today we have a lot of streak plays

0-5 wake looking for a cover but what does the 0-6 record say and more so more recently ????

0-5 record to cover is 35-38 and in the last week the record is

6-12 they will not cover,Both records say they will not cover the point spread today and 12-6 = 67% the exact same percent as Okla St yesterday

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Boise is also at 0-5 so i do not expect them to cover either today

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0-4 Nevada has a different approach as record over the season is 74-77 and very close to 50% and over the last week the record is 8-9 telling me to avoid that play so i will Pass that play

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0-3's likewise at 125-151 and over the last week not much percentage difference so will pass these plays,plus level 3's are more for the watching than waste money on unless i see a drastic change which has happened in past but not at this time and with 276 games at 0-3 so far this season the spread is IMO damnnn good at 45%/55%

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Need to take a break and will be back with win streaks

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BIGfnPOO

MVP

Joined: Jun, 2006

Posts: 18880

Posted: Feb. 18, 2014 - 10:27 AM ET #2802

thx for yr work,,,i feel like i got punched in the face w/ ok st +5.5

bigFnPOO

stevo1

Captain

Joined: Oct, 2011

Posts: 6398

Posted: Feb. 18, 2014 - 10:38 AM ET #2803

yeaaa and to top it off they were winning that game almost all the time

and to blow it that late really pizzed me off as record said they would cover easily and odds makers records took a hit in point placement on that game and at 67% cover i thought a easy cover for them at 0-7 loss streak which now they will need to redo come Saturday

stevo1

Captain

Joined: Oct, 2011

Posts: 6398

Posted: Feb. 18, 2014 - 10:40 AM ET #2804

Just looked and they play texas tech on saturday so i will be on them to cover for 10 units

stevo1

Captain

Joined: Oct, 2011

Posts: 6398

Posted: Feb. 18, 2014 - 10:51 AM ET #2805

we have 6 teams at 3-0 today and as noted both could not cover yesterday but the record over the last week says they should cover but at such a low streak level i am always suspect so i will pass all of them although Maryland at 3-0 but only because they are playing 0-5 wake and 0-5 record is worse than 3-0 record at 13-13 = 50% where 0-5 record is 6-11 to not cover, regardless its still just a 1 unit play for me

stevo1

Captain

Joined: Oct, 2011

Posts: 6398

Posted: Feb. 18, 2014 - 11:06 AM ET #2806

4-0 Southern ILL plays today and 4-0 record overall to cover for season is 69-61 and more recently over the last week since 2/8/14 is 6-18 they will not cover so i will play Bradly +7 or what ever the line is at tip off

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6-0 Fresno is exactly the same as N Carolina last night so i will be on Fresno for 1 unit to cover due to record now at 13-4 they cover

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that's all there is for today so i will look into tomorrow as maybe we can parlay these plays today

into tomorrow to plays i will be on regardless of the point spreads coming out later today for tomorrow as for me its all about the past Streak records

IndianJoe

Prospect

Joined: Dec, 2005

Posts: 76

Posted: Feb. 18, 2014 - 11:11 AM ET #2807

Quote Originally Posted by stevo1:

I can't believe anybody lost that game as i got 6 i need to look to see what covers shows line was

Got 6 as well ........ Push better than loss.......look out Texas Tech...................

divotdigger45

Prospect

Joined: Dec, 2009

Posts: 239

Posted: Feb. 18, 2014 - 11:49 AM ET #2808

san jose st is at 0-6 which is hitting at a 7-1 to cover, correct me if i am wrong they did have a push but streak continues thanks

stevo1

Captain

Joined: Oct, 2011

Posts: 6398

Posted: Feb. 18, 2014 - 12:03 PM ET #2809

Divot i overlooked Jose St and yes you are right and the 0-6 streak record to cover is 19-17 overall and over the last week or so at 7-1 to cover so is a 10 unit play at 87.5

divotdigger45

Prospect

Joined: Dec, 2009

Posts: 239

Posted: Feb. 18, 2014 - 12:07 PM ET #2810

wy is also a 4-0 which is a not cover play right

stevo1

Captain

Joined: Oct, 2011

Posts: 6398

Posted: Feb. 18, 2014 - 12:15 PM ET #2811

page 2788

0-6 to cover (1-23-14) 10-14,,,,,, 2/8/14 record 11-16 = 1-2 as of 2/8

Current record to cover as of 2/17/14 19-17 =

8-1

San Jose St to Cover,,,

stevo1

Captain

Joined: Oct, 2011

Posts: 6398

Posted: Feb. 18, 2014 - 12:20 PM ET #2812

4-0 Wyoming plays today and 4-0 record overall to cover for season is 69-61 and more recently over the last week since 2/8/14 is 6-18 they will not cover

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6-0 Fresno is exactly the same as N Carolina last night so i will be on Fresno for 1 unit to cover due to record now at 13-4 they cover

Raising this wager to 5 units

Quone

Veteran

Joined: May, 2007

Posts: 1212

Posted: Feb. 18, 2014 - 12:25 PM ET #2813

do we have any idea about the steve picks in this thread, at what rate they are hitting? couldn't find any thread record. thanks

Quone

Veteran

Joined: May, 2007

Posts: 1212

Posted: Feb. 18, 2014 - 12:30 PM ET #2814

I'm really trying but I find it a little hard to follow thread. I'm sure I will catch on Steve. Is that the Fresno is raised to 5 unit play? and Wyoming not to cover is still 1 unit?

stevo1

Captain

Joined: Oct, 2011

Posts: 6398

Posted: Feb. 18, 2014 - 12:33 PM ET #2815

guys i posted that wyoming play wrong plz cancel

4-0 Wyoming plays today and 4-0 record overall to NOT cover for season is 69-61 and more recently over the last week since 2/8/14 is 6-18 they will cover

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6-0 Fresno is 17-14 to not cover and over the last week or so is 2-4 they will cover also so passing this play

Cancelling this play

as read it wrong

stevo1

Captain

Joined: Oct, 2011

Posts: 6398

Posted: Feb. 18, 2014 - 12:40 PM ET #2816

I will update all streak plays over again with out all the comparisons

the plays today are

Maryland ,,,,,,,,,,1 unit

Colorado St,,,,,,,1 unit

Bradly,,,,,,,,,,,,,, 1 unit

San Jose for 10 units

TheLevel

Veteran

Joined: Mar, 2012

Posts: 1165

Posted: Feb. 18, 2014 - 1:02 PM ET #2817

The only prob is San Jose is TERRIBLE, Nevada beat them @ San Jose 62-50 and Nevada was 1-12 from 3 pt land while Jose made 5-20.

stevo1

Captain

Joined: Oct, 2011

Posts: 6398

Posted: Feb. 18, 2014 - 1:15 PM ET #2818

sorry guys but sometimes cover no cover gets confusing esp whe records change from over all to current and your thought process is one way and then you have to switch it to the other way probably some mental defect when was a teen ager

damnnn drugs

stevo1

Captain

Joined: Oct, 2011

Posts: 6398

Posted: Feb. 18, 2014 - 1:18 PM ET #2819

Level

hopefully the odds makers agree and favor them with a fair balanced point spread other wise joe public is gonna have a field day and Vegas is giving away free money again

stevo1

Captain

Joined: Oct, 2011

Posts: 6398

Posted: Feb. 18, 2014 - 3:16 PM ET #2820

Streak records differential,, from 1/23/14 to 2/17/14

Stop = No Cover

3-0 to stop (1-23-14) 140-86 cur record 168-137 = 28-51= 55% to not cover

4-0 to stop ( 1-25-14) 45-37 cur record 69-61 = 24-24 = 50% to not cover

5-0 to stop ( 1-22-14) 11-24 cur record 23-34 = 12-10 = 55% to not cover

6-0 to stop (1-23-14) 14-10 cur record 18-14 = 4-4 = 50% to not cover

7-0 to stop (1-8-14) 3-5 cur record 7-6 = 4-1 = 75% to not cover

8-0 to stop (1-12-14) 3-2 cur record 3-3 = 0-1 = 100% to cover

9-0 to stop (1-25-14) 2-0 cur record 3-0 = 1-0 = 100% to not

cover between 1/25 and 2/17 but actually 300% for all teams at 9-0 to

not cover as no WIN streak has gone to 10-0 this season,YET

stevo1

Captain

Joined: Oct, 2011

Posts: 6398

Posted: Feb. 18, 2014 - 3:17 PM ET #2821

0-3 to cover (1-25-14) 89-98 cur record (125-153) = 36-55 = 29%

0-4 to cover (1-25-14) 52-47 cur record 74-78 = 22-31 = 42%

0-5 to cover (1-25-14) 20-27 cur record 35-40 = 15-13 = 54%

0-6 to cover (1-23-14) 10-14 cur record 18-17 = 8-3 = 73%

0-7 to cover (1-25-14) 10-4 cur record 12-4 = 2-0 = 200%

0-8 to cover ( 1-25-14) 2-1 cur record 2-2 = 1-0 = 100%

0-11 to cover(1-18-14) 2-0 cur record 0-0 = 2-0 = 200%

stevo1

Captain

Joined: Oct, 2011

Posts: 6398

Posted: Feb. 18, 2014 - 3:21 PM ET #2822

correction

0-8 to cover ( 1-25-14) 1-2 cur record 2-2 = 1-0 = 100%

divotdigger45

Prospect

Joined: Dec, 2009

Posts: 239

Posted: Feb. 18, 2014 - 3:31 PM ET #2823

stevo help me out , in post 2816 you took bradley to cover against a 4-0 but you didn't take fresno to cover against a 4-0, any reason, also in post 2820 you have the 4-0 listed as a 50% not cover so should be a no play on 4-0 teams? thanks for all your help