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Posted: #126
Quote Originally Posted by UNCforever:

As for the LOU/UCONN game I am torn between this. LOU press sucks against good guards. If Kemba Walker plays well and limits his turnovers as I know Dyson will be ok but if Walker steps up I dont see how UCONN doesnt make this a game down to the wire. LOU will get 3 happy and if that is the case and they are off LOU is in for another long night. UNC and LOU are 2 teams that have done a 360 and we as betters need to step back and realize this. You could throw UCONN in this mix but they have shown they can beat/compete with good teams. UNC and LOU have yet to shown me that. I really think this line is inflated also. Dont call me crazy but I would not be shocked at all if I saw both road teams on ESPN take care of business...
Let's not forget that Dyson suffered an ankle injury late in the game against Marquette. Will he be 100%, or more into the jump shooting mode than taking it to the rack???
 
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Posted: #127
NEW WEEK BOL UNC
 
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Posted: #128
Quote Originally Posted by i_Win_u_Lose:

HUH!!??????   KENTUCKY  IS  THE TOP 3  FREAKIN TEAM IN NCAA!!???  IF NOT THE BEST!??  WHAT U SMOKIN ON!?? kentuky lose a road game to a sc team that they didnt take seriously and came back home and blow vanderbilt out  of the water.... theres not much team can hang with them talentwise  maybe texas got the closest talent to them.  all an all .. UNC GOOD LUCK WITH TEXAS ... as i already was gonna lay it HUGE with the MONEYLINE ... i dont see the team with this talent losing another game.

Read the thread before u go off bud, i never said that UK wasnt going to the tourny, we were talking about teams that beat UCONN
 
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Posted: #129
Quote Originally Posted by FIT410s:



" They have faced one top 25 opponent .. while 19 of the other 24 teams (in the top 25) have played top 25 teams at least 3 times. Only three other teams have had only one match against teams in the top 25.

My point is they do not deserve to be #1or top 5. They acquired the #1 through teams losing .. and they don't deserve it until they can prove they do.

pittviper "

Due to the current ranking system, if a team is ranked #7 and the top 6 lose they back into # 1, they deserve the rank. All is for not when tourney time hits its usually the hottest teams at the time that advance to sweet 16 after that usually the BEST teams shine thru to the final 4....Kent deserved the #1 rank untill they lose or as they did lost it.

 
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Posted: #130
Quote Originally Posted by oddsbuster:

bro i must be smoking the good stuff for some reason i thought that was Kent..... I got tooo much going on with tooo many teams right now Yeah i think Kentucky is pretty safe
I kind of figured that odd, been reading ure thread, great work bud, GL on the rest of the year
 
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Posted: #131
Quote Originally Posted by UNCforever:

TEX ML -135 (10U)

I will go ahead and get this line moving for you OK ST backers. If there is one thing I have learned when it comes to betting on Big Monday's is not to get cute with the books. Mondays can be one of the worst days of the week for a contrarian better. DABEARS where you at buddy you know what I am talking about.

I understand what kind of spiral TEX is very close to putting themselves in but good teams dig themselves out of this shit. Sometimes you have to get smacked in the face a few times to get the motivation going.

We can throw out the terms of being drained from Saturday because both teams were both in high paced and emotional games. Personally if you ask me it is going to effect OK ST more as they dont have 10 or 11 guys playing almost a avg of 11 minutes a game and no player playing over 29 minutes a game.

As we know TEX is deep and balanced but as most of you are saying the Rotation is a mess. Personally I disagree when you guys bring up rotation. I think some of the best teams in the country that have this type of depth year in and year are your most dangerous. Now Texas is probably the youngest team I have seen with this type of depth and its a matter of time before it clicks. I think problem is with coach not the rotation. I think Barnes is not a great x's and o's guy.

If Chapman and Hill get into this game they are going to have to play some quality minutes. These two have got to take care of the ball when they get touches and have to alter some shots and rebound defensively. Its pretty simple if Texas can play 40 minutes not 20 minutes, not 30 minutes, not 39 minutes. Play 40 minutes of hard nose D and excute offensively then I think we will finally see a Texas team that is proven.

This is also a very pivitol game for for the Horns. A loss here moves them even further back in the conference standings but more importantly it might ruin the chance of a 1 seed.

I am not impressed with the teams OK ST has played their last 5 games or so. Sure they beat K STATE but that was a extremely tough spot for the Wildcats. This team will have to put together a effort like they did against TAM and that is shooting the ball ridiculous. This team is very poor offensively and that is due to the poor shoot selection. I am not a fan of backing jump shooting team never have. This could be a nightmare for OK ST if they are not on as this will play right into what Texas wants to do.

I know there are some strong trends against me in this series but to be honest OK ST does not have a prolific point guard such as a Tweety Carter, Dyson, Pullen, and Clemente all guys that were capable of getting into the paint and creating things for teammates. Eaton is not here. This will be OK ST downfall tonight unless someone steps up. You cant beat good teams sitting on the outside plain and simple.

All in all this comes down to a team up against the wall and if they can dig deep enough to shut the critics up. I think depth and balance goes a long way in this one. I will take a team that will iniate the inside game instead of jacking it up at home. Square or not I will take the team that is 13-5 the last 18 ATS on Monday nights.



playing with fire here, buddy, but I will be rooting hard for ya.

I'm very scared of our match-up defensively and with how well they play at home. If we put Damion on James Anderson then I think we'll leave Obi Muonelo to have a big game. It would be a great team to start Gary Johnson against, regardless of seeing him downtown at a bar on Saturday night, but Rick is stubborn and I don't see it happening.

I think Dexter will break out tonight against Marshall Moses on the interior, but if we keep Justin Mason and Balbay out there at the same time they can just double him. So i'm hoping we start J'Covan Brown after doing it earlier in the year because I don't see Rick rewarding Jordan "quickshot" Hamilton with a start for Mason.

I'm worried if we lose tonight we've lost the season already
 
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Posted: #132
One other subplot to keep an eye one.  The BIG East is investigating the referee's decision making in the last minute of Saturday's l'ville game.  I would not be at all surprised to see ville get a favorable evening from the stripes...

Quote Originally Posted by puterguy57:

Let's not forget that Dyson suffered an ankle injury late in the game against Marquette. Will he be 100%, or more into the jump shooting mode than taking it to the rack???
 
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Posted: #133
Quote Originally Posted by NoWorries21:

I use Scoresandodds.com then click betting trends on top tabs. The percentages are on the right. I use this site as it has no vested interest like ceratin places do.



Thanks man, Do you know if this an average over all or some?

BTW good insights....

Hey Guys think about this line movement....it hasn't budged 2 pts and JP is pounding the game at -2  at 82%. If this was a head fake they would of easy adjusted the lines with the trends. They are doing this because they feel Ok ST is in a better spot. Why would they risk 82% of JP winning this one? I will side with the opp here as either the refs will be homers or OK ST takes it to em....

Also WTH is up with the UCONN line? that one is just as bad...

FYI ON NBA tonight.........HEAT, GRIZZLES, BLAZERS..........take it to da bank!

BOL everyone....
 
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Posted: #134

Ok, I posted friday on this blog about possibly helping out everyone who struggles with their ivy league plays since I was an ex pigskin player for brown and know alot of connections still associated with the conference.  I was only going to post ivy league plays on this blog on thursday night but being a grad student at Texas Tech and wintessing alot of BIG 12  hoops on local lubbock tv's espn plus, I feel that I should contribute to this blog in BIG12 as well.  I saw UNCforev struggling between Texas and OK st.  Couldnt agree more with the unders on that game. While those teams avg 160 pts a game combined on offense they only give up in the mid 60's on defense. Since ok st will definately be fired up in hopes for another markee win, and texas as well if they hope to regain a chance at a 1 seed, I see a premium of intensity on every defensive possesion the whole game for both teams.   Now as for the line.  I love Texas in this spot, even though I have no affiliation or love for them.  I noticed they are on a current streak of 0 for 8 ATS.  This seems to be typical of texas football and basketball where they have superior talent but get lazy in stretches of games during the season and keep inferior talent in the game.  This university is very similar to another texas team, THE DALLAS COWBOYS, whom also have amazing talent, will start the season hot like the longhorns did, and will crumble ATS mid season as both the cowboys and longhorns typically do.  then they begin to turn things around mid/late season.  All my buds loaded up on the cowboys after they started strong then were let down in nov to early dec with losses ATS to the skins, giants, san diego and greenbay.  Then everyone stayed off the cowboys in disbelief they would have yet another collapse but then precede to cover their next four,  @ wash, @ saints and philly twice.  Then my buds all gets back on the boys wagon and minesoty spanks them to end their season.  I see a similar pattern with the horns tonight.  They have great size and length.  Look for balbay to completely take away the 3 from the little white boy gage all night.  Also, Texas has been horrible at the line the last few games especially Damion James.  With the short layoff since the baylor loss id bet a hobos dickcheese Barnes spent a GREAT deal of time having these guys practice shooting drilles especially from the FT line, while also spending minimal time doing other drills and keeping his one practice yesterday relatively mild in intensity to conserve energy so they can play great defense all 40 minutes tonight.  I feel it will be low scoring and tight first half.  Texas will eventually pull away late and finish for once by knocking down the clutch FT's they need to. Finally, i like the horns and unders because of who ok st played last game.  We all know mizzou plays at a crazy ridiculous up and down the court pace, and causes the opponent to constantly be sprinting the entire game which can really take a toll on the legs of an ok st team that only gets one day to recoop from that track meet where they probably sprinted double what texas did on saturday against baylor despite that game going into OT.  Expect those legs to get tired by 2nd half and jumpers and ft's by the cowboys to come up shorter as the game progresses. 

TEXAS takes this one 77-68

 
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Posted: #135
Quote Originally Posted by UNCforever:

NO PLAY ON LOU/UCONN. GAME GOING BACK AND FORTH ON THIS ONE IS DRIVING ME NUTS AND I AM JUST GOING TO LEAVE IT ALONE. I COULD SEE EITHER TEAM BLOWING EACH OTHER OUT OR THIS ONE COMING DOWN TO THE WIRE. I AM NOT GOING TO RELY ON UCONN'S GUARDS TO BREAK THIS PRESS. AFTER GOING A LITTLE BIT MORE INTO THESE 2 THEY ARE AVG ALMOST 8 TURNOVERS A GAME COMBINED. YOU CANT HAVE THESE NUMBERS WHEN GOING AGAINST A PITINO PRESS. I AM ALSO NOT EVEN GOING TO ATTEMPT TO BACK LOU AS THEY CAN SHOOT THEMSELVES RIGHT OUT OF THIS GAME. 2 NIT BOUND TEAMS IN WHAT WE SHOULD SEE A NIT PREVIEW. BOTH TEAMS ARE DESPERATE, BOTH NEED A BIG WIN, AND BOTH HAVE SOME SERIOUS PROBLEMS. I WILL WATCH THE MESS UNFOLD...

glad to see you lay off i was thinking the same...
 
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Posted: #136
if Texas plays D, they win but..... I don't think they will tonight. Not at the level they had been playing earlier in the year. Horns are giving up 80+ last 3 games (2 losses). 

Mismatch down low is a myth. Ok St is 11th in the nation in defensive rebounding. 
 
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Posted: #137
Quote Originally Posted by ZonaCats:

if Texas plays D, they win but..... I don't think they will tonight. Not at the level they had been playing earlier in the year. Horns are giving up 80+ last 3 games (2 losses). 

Mismatch down low is a myth. Ok St is 11th in the nation in defensive rebounding. 



 
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Posted: #138
Quote Originally Posted by tbookthegreat:


glad to see you lay off i was thinking the same...

bootlicker
 
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Posted: #139

Really liking the No Illinios line +14 at Kent. No ill is avg. 68.1 ppg and allowing 71.4 ppg while kent is scoing 70.1 ppg allowing 65.1 ppg. Illinois is on a 3 game skid and kent has won 4 straight. That being said i dont think kent losses this one but i could see them coming out alittle over confident and making stupid mistakes and No Ill playing very hard and keeping it closer than the 14 points they are getting.

 
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Posted: #140

Quote Originally Posted by Sosana:




You lucky SOB.....................

How good of seats did you get? My heart says take saints and my gut says take colts.....hat manning....

OK ST ...............I hope joe public pounds this game I been following Texas with my streak bets and their downward spiral....

had a nice hit with ARK & SIU...did you you whined up taking those games tonight?



"whined"  ... you mean "wind?"

Nothing but love Sosana

We should hire a full-time grammar police woman in here, find Stuey, and throw sexy parties every week ...

 
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Posted: #141

yeah i know but they outrebounded mizzou 42-26 and still lost by double digits so it can be misleading.  I am not expecting rebounding the be the biggest factor in this one.  Barnes knows the struggles they have had in the past playing at ok st as his team has often overlooked state in previous years.. But I Just dont feel they will overlook the cowboys tonight as in the past.  They have @ok st, @ou, home vs kansas their next three.  More concerned about them letting us down @ norman which is sandwiched in between tonights mathcup and next weeks battle vs KU.

 
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Posted: #142
Quote Originally Posted by ClassyAnski:

"whined"  ... you mean "wind?"

Nothing but love Sosana

We should hire a full-time grammar police woman in here, find Stuey, and throw sexy parties every week ...



                 

Nothing but love for ya too bro, but I was honing my ebonics slang.....dude been decent on my capping lately....liking Heat, Grizzles,.............any thoughts? Is Boozer and williams back for Utah? line looks juicy...........also CANISIUS tonight bro....Iona has Sena on deck and JP is pounding Iona...

Had a good day at the office with Ark and SIU yesterday.......






 
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Posted: #143

thx unc, appreciate your write up!

Quote Originally Posted by Sosana:

UNC or Any one else....


what is the name of the website that tracks all the percentages of bets that joe public are pounding?


i guess you mean sportsbookspy on pregame.com

 
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Posted: #144
UNC - bol tonight buddy! 
 
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Posted: #145
i have to sift through 6 pages of bullshit and cheers-ing smiley faces. I see Texas ML, is there anything else i'm missing? It's like a bunch of old ladies talking backgammon in this thread. stfu everybody
 
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Posted: #146
Hey buddy... good luck to you today... been trying to get a hold of ya, hope all is ok.

SK
 
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Posted: #147

Really liking the No Illinios line +14 at Kent. No ill is avg. 68.1 ppg and allowing 71.4 ppg while kent is scoing 70.1 ppg allowing 65.1 ppg. Illinois is on a 3 game skid and kent has won 4 straight. That being said i dont think kent losses this one but i could see them coming out alittle over confident and making stupid mistakes and No Ill playing very hard and keeping it closer than the 14 points they are getting.

NO ILL +14  any thoughts

 
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Posted: #148
louisville's style of play is so annoying
 
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Posted: #149

Quote Originally Posted by Sosana:

UNC or Any one else....


what is the name of the website that tracks all the percentages of bets that joe public are pounding?




twominutewarning.com/bettracker

Click on your sport.  Not only does it give u a % and line momevent, but it also shows you how many bets have been placed on the game to get that %.  It doesn't show u how much money if coming on each side, but it's always good to see if only 1000 bets or 10000 bets got your %

 
 
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Posted: #150
Quote Originally Posted by Steal:

i have to sift through 6 pages of bullshit and cheers-ing smiley faces. I see Texas ML, is there anything else i'm missing? It's like a bunch of old ladies talking backgammon in this thread. stfu everybody



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