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NEO - THE ONE

Captain

Joined: Aug, 2005

Posts: 5182

Posted: Nov. 24, 2010 - 2:19 AM ET #201

Thank You for consistent winners and great write-ups!

Nropp11Bookieman

Neo

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NEO - THE ONE

Captain

Joined: Aug, 2005

Posts: 5182

Posted: Nov. 24, 2010 - 2:21 AM ET #202

nropp11

bookieman

0

NCAAFXPERT

Banned

Joined: Nov, 2010

Posts: 322

Posted: Nov. 24, 2010 - 3:04 AM ET #203

Quote Originally Posted by dms79:

Hey nropp--

I like Sac State here (I'm an alum of UCD)... I did a write up, but it comes down to Davis' off-season turmoil. Apparently, 7 players called for the coach to step down, and 5 quit the team. They also lost, at home, to DII Academy of Arts (who was 1-31 last year).

I didn't have the balls to bet Boise -3 at UCD, as I felt the line should have been about 12. Well, shame on me.

If you see my thread "My alma mater is an auto fade for now," I hope you'll chime in.

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LarryLeGrand

Prospect

Joined: Nov, 2009

Posts: 297

Posted: Nov. 24, 2010 - 5:43 AM ET #204

Thank you very much!

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ThirdCoast

Prospect

Joined: Nov, 2010

Posts: 18

Posted: Nov. 24, 2010 - 9:02 AM ET #205

Against the grain and unapologetic for it. Thanks for sharing your research and picks with us.

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nropp11

Captain

Joined: May, 2006

Posts: 7963

Posted: Nov. 24, 2010 - 12:12 PM ET #206

11/23 Results: Winthrop scored in the 40’s again. Buffalo really took it to Canisius. Uconn upset Michigan State, or shall I say Kemba Walker upset Michigan State. Duke’s pretty good. They’re on my do not bet on or against list. Lafayette continues it’s ways of struggling to find offense against up-tempo squads, take note, it will come in handy in conference play. Illinois looked really sluggish. Kentucky beat Washington as I still get to see a Washington/MSU matchup as I had wanted, just wish there was more at stake. Gonzaga bounced back to beat Marquette despite two guys taking 60% of the team’s shots. That would concern me. Memphis and Tennessee Martin hit 180, think I alluded to that yesterday as a possibility. Pacific continues with no offense, same for Nevada. UC Davis a big win. Officially off the New Mexico State scoring bandwagon until they get home from the roadtrip, it’s obviously taking it’s toll. Just glad I held off there (57, 57, 61, and now 56). Floyd really slowed the tempo in the 2H, so may add value down the road. I’m talking big play when the time comes to the over.

Sides: 11-2, +12.80

Totals: 4-1, +2.90

DNP: 6-4

11/24 Notes: First game on the board is intriguing in many aspects as we have Cleveland State travelling to Akron in somewhat of a rivalry game that hasn’t been played in recent years. Cleveland State is a team who should make some noise in the Horizon this year as they return all five starters, including their best ball handler and scoring option, PG Norris Cole. Akron returns three from a team who won 23 games, but did nothing with those 23 wins. Of those three, Brett McKnight who accounted for 15% of scoring and touches on offensive possessions last year has been indefinitely suspended just recently. He did not play the other night and looks like he will not suit up for the season. This was a player in which the entire Akron offense was centered around last year. The player who is taking his spot is a kid who was actually projected to redshirt. Cleveland State has not looked good in any of their first five games, however they have won all 5 and have been favored in all of them. This will be the first spot this year we get them as a pup. One thing is consistent in their approach, they will play their style of basketball whether you like it or not and they will control the tempo with their defense. The road will not be intimidating at all for them this early in the season as this same exact starting five played Wichita State, Virginia, Kentucky, West Virginia, Kansas State, and Ohio State last year. They’re well-tested on the road, despite 6 losses in those games. Akron is 2-1 this year with the only loss to a comparable squad to CSU in Dayton. Dayton and CSU are mirror images of one another. Akron is also coming off a marathon of an overtime game in which all five of their starters played at least 34 minutes with two of them logging 40+. The only downside to this contest is D’Aundray Brown is the defensive superstar and catalyst that brings energy to the game and it looks as if he is out until mid-December. They lost him for a brief period last year toward the end of the year and faltered to a Wisconsin MKE team they should have beaten in the conference tournament. Their defense should overwhelm an offense that is missing its key ingredient, let alone an offense with all cylinders firing. When Brown returns, this team is probably an auto-bet...

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11/23 Results: Winthrop scored in the 40’s again. Buffalo really took it to Canisius. Uconn upset Michigan State, or shall I say Kemba Walker upset Michigan State. Duke’s pretty good. They’re on my do not bet on or against list. Lafayette continues it’s ways of struggling to find offense against up-tempo squads, take note, it will come in handy in conference play. Illinois looked really sluggish. Kentucky beat Washington as I still get to see a Washington/MSU matchup as I had wanted, just wish there was more at stake. Gonzaga bounced back to beat Marquette despite two guys taking 60% of the team’s shots. That would concern me. Memphis and Tennessee Martin hit 180, think I alluded to that yesterday as a possibility. Pacific continues with no offense, same for Nevada. UC Davis a big win. Officially off the New Mexico State scoring bandwagon until they get home from the roadtrip, it’s obviously taking it’s toll. Just glad I held off there (57, 57, 61, and now 56). Floyd really slowed the tempo in the 2H, so may add value down the road. I’m talking big play when the time comes to the over.

Sides: 11-2, +12.80

Totals: 4-1, +2.90

DNP: 6-4

11/24 Notes: First game on the board is intriguing in many aspects as we have Cleveland State travelling to Akron in somewhat of a rivalry game that hasn’t been played in recent years. Cleveland State is a team who should make some noise in the Horizon this year as they return all five starters, including their best ball handler and scoring option, PG Norris Cole. Akron returns three from a team who won 23 games, but did nothing with those 23 wins. Of those three, Brett McKnight who accounted for 15% of scoring and touches on offensive possessions last year has been indefinitely suspended just recently. He did not play the other night and looks like he will not suit up for the season. This was a player in which the entire Akron offense was centered around last year. The player who is taking his spot is a kid who was actually projected to redshirt. Cleveland State has not looked good in any of their first five games, however they have won all 5 and have been favored in all of them. This will be the first spot this year we get them as a pup. One thing is consistent in their approach, they will play their style of basketball whether you like it or not and they will control the tempo with their defense. The road will not be intimidating at all for them this early in the season as this same exact starting five played Wichita State, Virginia, Kentucky, West Virginia, Kansas State, and Ohio State last year. They’re well-tested on the road, despite 6 losses in those games. Akron is 2-1 this year with the only loss to a comparable squad to CSU in Dayton. Dayton and CSU are mirror images of one another. Akron is also coming off a marathon of an overtime game in which all five of their starters played at least 34 minutes with two of them logging 40+. The only downside to this contest is D’Aundray Brown is the defensive superstar and catalyst that brings energy to the game and it looks as if he is out until mid-December. They lost him for a brief period last year toward the end of the year and faltered to a Wisconsin MKE team they should have beaten in the conference tournament. Their defense should overwhelm an offense that is missing its key ingredient, let alone an offense with all cylinders firing. When Brown returns, this team is probably an auto-bet...

nropp11

Captain

Joined: May, 2006

Posts: 7963

Posted: Nov. 24, 2010 - 12:14 PM ET #207

...Rhode Island should bounce back returning home. I am no proponent in betting squads who I have said sucked numerous times before (Toledo), but there is a bit of value in them today. They have played a brutal schedule thus far in Rhode Island, Temple, Illinois, and COC. I actually have Youngstown State pegged as a worse Horizon team than UIC, and Toledo fought them tooth and nail. Youngstown has not been impressive thus far being only a favorite in one of those games against lowly OVC squad in Samford. They were actually dogged at home to the likes of a Buffalo who comes from the same conference as Toledo here. Youngstown went on the road to be a double digit dog at Akron in the marathon game, where again, they had numerous players log many minutes. This is a team that lost four starters off a team who’s wins last year came against Hiram, St. Peter’s, Geneva, St. Francis, High Point, UIC, Loyola, and NC Central. When a team learns how to lose, it finds ways to lose, and it keeps on losing. They are attempting the three-ball at an absurd pace, and when you have some success with it (they made ten at Akron), it’s going to be a thorn in your side in the long run. You will be complacent, and teams like Toledo will take advantage. This team had a 3 point lead in regulation at Akron, didn’t corral the rebound, Akron hits a 3 at the buzzer and sends it into overtime. Do they bounce back strong or do they fade with Toledo coming in? Call me crazy, I think the game’s winnable for Toledo. The difference maker? Ted Kowalczyk takes over a Toledo program, after a stint at Wisconsin Green Bay, who comes from the same conference as Youngstown State. On another note, Youngstown has already faced off against two MAC opponents, so you can bet the farm MAC coaches talk to one another about out of conference opponents. Familiarity. Light Bulbs. The defense will be there, can I please get some offense? In college basketball, especially in smaller conferences, the most difference in expectations and approach to success come between the freshman and sophomore years. Case in Point, Evansville this year. They return a plethora of freshman who saw many minutes last year along with 81% of their scoring, most notably Colt Ryan, the freshman of the year in the Valley last year. I’m not saying Evansville will be a player in the Valley race this year, but they will surprise some people in the coming years. I have referenced MTSTU star Boogie Yates in previous posts as being the all-time leading scorer and departing after last year. HUGE loss. The defense isn’t as good, and they’re having trouble putting the ball in the hoop. I faded them early in the season with a lean on UAB b/c of matchups, and probably going to do the same thing here. This Evansville team had a six point lead at the half on Indiana the other night, then got complacent and started forcing ill-advised shots. They took a step in the right direction, and they have the size to contain MTSTU’s guards. Wichita State under the total looks appealing. Michigan State can’t really run with Washington and try to outscore them, so that total of 157 is shocking. I’d like to see Izzo slow the tempo here to get a better gauge on Washington. Again, no interest in Harrisonburg or the Cancun Challenge. I thought Villanova would be a lot more than a 5 point favorite, about as much insight as I’ll get into on that game. VCU/Tennessee could be a classic. Thought the San Fran/Montana State total was a bit high as well, but too many unknowns on both squads. I pegged that at 136.

Bets

Cleveland State +2.5 (1 Unit)

Toledo +13 (1 Unit)

DNP: Evansville +4.5

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...Rhode Island should bounce back returning home. I am no proponent in betting squads who I have said sucked numerous times before (Toledo), but there is a bit of value in them today. They have played a brutal schedule thus far in Rhode Island, Temple, Illinois, and COC. I actually have Youngstown State pegged as a worse Horizon team than UIC, and Toledo fought them tooth and nail. Youngstown has not been impressive thus far being only a favorite in one of those games against lowly OVC squad in Samford. They were actually dogged at home to the likes of a Buffalo who comes from the same conference as Toledo here. Youngstown went on the road to be a double digit dog at Akron in the marathon game, where again, they had numerous players log many minutes. This is a team that lost four starters off a team who’s wins last year came against Hiram, St. Peter’s, Geneva, St. Francis, High Point, UIC, Loyola, and NC Central. When a team learns how to lose, it finds ways to lose, and it keeps on losing. They are attempting the three-ball at an absurd pace, and when you have some success with it (they made ten at Akron), it’s going to be a thorn in your side in the long run. You will be complacent, and teams like Toledo will take advantage. This team had a 3 point lead in regulation at Akron, didn’t corral the rebound, Akron hits a 3 at the buzzer and sends it into overtime. Do they bounce back strong or do they fade with Toledo coming in? Call me crazy, I think the game’s winnable for Toledo. The difference maker? Ted Kowalczyk takes over a Toledo program, after a stint at Wisconsin Green Bay, who comes from the same conference as Youngstown State. On another note, Youngstown has already faced off against two MAC opponents, so you can bet the farm MAC coaches talk to one another about out of conference opponents. Familiarity. Light Bulbs. The defense will be there, can I please get some offense? In college basketball, especially in smaller conferences, the most difference in expectations and approach to success come between the freshman and sophomore years. Case in Point, Evansville this year. They return a plethora of freshman who saw many minutes last year along with 81% of their scoring, most notably Colt Ryan, the freshman of the year in the Valley last year. I’m not saying Evansville will be a player in the Valley race this year, but they will surprise some people in the coming years. I have referenced MTSTU star Boogie Yates in previous posts as being the all-time leading scorer and departing after last year. HUGE loss. The defense isn’t as good, and they’re having trouble putting the ball in the hoop. I faded them early in the season with a lean on UAB b/c of matchups, and probably going to do the same thing here. This Evansville team had a six point lead at the half on Indiana the other night, then got complacent and started forcing ill-advised shots. They took a step in the right direction, and they have the size to contain MTSTU’s guards. Wichita State under the total looks appealing. Michigan State can’t really run with Washington and try to outscore them, so that total of 157 is shocking. I’d like to see Izzo slow the tempo here to get a better gauge on Washington. Again, no interest in Harrisonburg or the Cancun Challenge. I thought Villanova would be a lot more than a 5 point favorite, about as much insight as I’ll get into on that game. VCU/Tennessee could be a classic. Thought the San Fran/Montana State total was a bit high as well, but too many unknowns on both squads. I pegged that at 136.

Bets

Cleveland State +2.5 (1 Unit)

Toledo +13 (1 Unit)

DNP: Evansville +4.5

nropp11

Captain

Joined: May, 2006

Posts: 7963

Posted: Nov. 24, 2010 - 12:14 PM ET #208

11/25 Lookahead: Narrowed Thursday down to the following games with my projections which could be way off because not much thought was put into the # process.

Temple -1/Cal +1 (Good spot for Temple, Cal travelling across country, Temple 10 days to prepare)

Murray State +5/Stanford -5 (Good Spot for Murray, hate travel)

One side note as well, Was trying to project a line on Weber State and Alaska Anchorage and couldn’t really come up with a figure, but one important thing to note is that Weber State’s flights were cancelled midday yesterday due to a big snow storm. Not sure if they got out last night or if they were going to attempt it today.

Have a Good Thanksgiving…

GL

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sixth-sense

Prospect

Joined: Jun, 2010

Posts: 152

Posted: Nov. 24, 2010 - 12:22 PM ET #209

Happy Thanksgiving

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CharmCityKing

Prospect

Joined: Nov, 2010

Posts: 488

Posted: Nov. 24, 2010 - 12:26 PM ET #210

BOL. Happy Thanksgiving

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1ShiningMoment

Prospect

Joined: Oct, 2010

Posts: 285

Posted: Nov. 24, 2010 - 12:30 PM ET #211

GL Nropp, Happy Thanksgiving

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Rocketman17

Prospect

Joined: Sep, 2007

Posts: 475

Posted: Nov. 24, 2010 - 12:35 PM ET #212

Happy Thanksgiving! BOL Today

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LarryLeGrand

Prospect

Joined: Nov, 2009

Posts: 297

Posted: Nov. 24, 2010 - 12:40 PM ET #213

Happy Thanksgiving and thanks for the read!

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HotRoute

Hall of Fame

Joined: Sep, 2007

Posts: 25135

Posted: Nov. 24, 2010 - 12:52 PM ET #214

gl today nropp...stay hot

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miniman44444

Rookie

Joined: Jun, 2010

Posts: 900

Posted: Nov. 24, 2010 - 12:54 PM ET #215

happy thanksgiving awesome insight bol tonight

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Demetreous

Prospect

Joined: Feb, 2007

Posts: 421

Posted: Nov. 24, 2010 - 1:03 PM ET #216

Man, Toledo is on my fade list with Marist and Dartmouth. But, I am guessing you are saying that the +13 points is even too much.

In Nropp11 I trust.

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thirdandthree

Prospect

Joined: Oct, 2010

Posts: 99

Posted: Nov. 24, 2010 - 1:05 PM ET #217

0

kc_thug44

Veteran

Joined: Nov, 2010

Posts: 1019

Posted: Nov. 24, 2010 - 1:10 PM ET #218

Coattailing the gravy train.

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GWarner27

Hall of Fame

Joined: Aug, 2007

Posts: 20963

Posted: Nov. 24, 2010 - 2:58 PM ET #219

Temple should be way bigger than -1, but if that's the number I'm excited for a TU play

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jumba13462

Prospect

Joined: Apr, 2010

Posts: 314

Posted: Nov. 24, 2010 - 3:11 PM ET #220

i'm just starting to tail you today. hope we have a good partnership

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butta01

Veteran

Joined: Nov, 2008

Posts: 2256

Posted: Nov. 24, 2010 - 3:12 PM ET #221

gl man...like your style...

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TRoe15

Hall of Fame

Joined: Aug, 2006

Posts: 21567

Posted: Nov. 24, 2010 - 3:13 PM ET #222

Always a great read and a class act. I'm on Cleveland St today as well.

Happy holidays Neil.

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rob3996

Prospect

Joined: Nov, 2010

Posts: 79

Posted: Nov. 24, 2010 - 3:20 PM ET #223

Just started following last nite - Thanks for the great insight and hard work. Good Luck today and Happy Thanksgiving!

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clepto

Legend

Joined: Aug, 2001

Posts: 34488

Posted: Nov. 24, 2010 - 5:34 PM ET #224

Great start and read.

GL this weekend

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GophersKC

Prospect

Joined: Nov, 2010

Posts: 3

Posted: Nov. 24, 2010 - 5:46 PM ET #225

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