Saturday CBB Plays

GL with the plays.

Because there appears to be some confusion relating to the site of the UNI/Iowa contest, I will point out that the game is being played as part of the all-Iowa double-header at Wells Fargo Arena in Des Moines.  The UNI/Iowa clash precedes Iowa St vs. Drake.  Since Drake's campus is in Des Moines, it might technically be considered the home team, but ironically, would assume that Drake would have the least amount of fan support.  Would guess that Iowa and Iowa State would have the most - followed by UNI. 

Also, I looked hard at the S. Carolina/USF game as well.  Ultimately, the Bulls' lack of Basketball IQ scared me off, but will advise those considering the play that USF has got a recent scoring boost with the return of Jahmal McMurray.  Last season's leading scorer, McMurray missed the Bulls' first 6 games this year before returning at GW on 12/3.  McMurray has averaged 18 ppg in his 2 GP thus far.  I will note, however, that it does appear that USF had been slow to adapt to McMurray's presence.  In the two games in which McMurray has played, the Bulls scored just 2 more points (at GW) than the KenPom projection while actually posting 11 fewer than the projected regulation total vs. Bethune Cookman.  Bottom line - McMurray makes USF better offensively, but is most definitely a volume shooter that typically needs a lot of shots to produce.

Great intel......many thanks!!!

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#8. Utah -25 over Prairie View

Very seldom lay this much chalk, but I think this is a terrible match-up today for Prairie View.

Utah (6-2) has only 2 losses on the year and they were against #18 Butler and last weekend against #17 Xavier.

I look for them to come out today focused after having a week to think about the Xavier loss and MORE IMPORTANTLY today they get back an key player.

6’8” Forward David Collette has been ineligible and comes back today.  Last year he averaged 14 PPG, 6 RPG and 2 APG.  I think he will have an immediate impact on an already strong Utah team.

Prairie View AM has a very poor RPI of 272 and that have taken a few behind whopping when they have stepped up and played the major conference teams.

At Houston they lost 61-105 (by 44 points)

At Wisconsin they lost 50-95 (by 45 points)

At St. Mary’s they lost 72-110 (by 38 points)

Utah impressed me with how tough they  played and covered against Xavier.

Also, they know how to give an behind whopping or two when playing teams like Prairie View.

Beat Coppin State 94-51 (by 44 points)

Beat N.S. Naz 81-37 (by 44 points)

Beat Concordia 96-53 (by 43 points)

I look for an inspired Utah team with Collette back to roll today in a huge miss-match and cover the -25 points.

[Quote: Origissnally Posted by dgsgreatest] Anymore plays? [/Quote]

Should have a few more.  Trying to be very selective and this Saturday Card is not as good as I had hoped.  There are tons of games that I expected to be lined games that are not.

Write-ups take some time and posting a play without it probably would not be very inspiring.  The only problem is when I find a game, I immediately bet it and then prepare the write-up.  I can't help it if the line changes.  I am posting what I actually bet.  It has worked for me and against me, but on totals like yesterday with San Fran, I got 157.5, a lot of people got 158 and by game time it hit as high as 160.  The final I believe was 82-78, which was right on 160.

#9.  Northwestern +1 over Dayton

I think the wrong team is favored here and I will tell you why.

Both teams have strong RPI’s in the top 40 and both teams have 5 straight wins.

In their last 5 wins neither team has played a very tough schedule, but I think Northwesters win over (8-3) Wake Forest 65-58 (by 7 points) is more impressive than anything Dayton has done in these last 5 games.

At (8-2) Northwester is (7-0) at home and Dayton has only played one true road game in early November which was a win over (5-5) Alabama by 5 points (77-72).  A similar effort will not win at Northwestern today.

What really stands out to me and puts me on Northwestern today is two of their losses.

Northwestern lost at #18 Butler (9-1) by 2 points (68-70)

Northwestern lost on a neutral court to #21 Ranked Notre Dame (9-1) by 4 points (66-70)

A similar performance to either of these two games should result in an easy win at home by Northwester.

We all know Dayton has a very tough home court, but their fortunes have not been that great on the road.

Dayton played (5-5) Nebraska on a neutral court and lost by 2 points (78-80).

NW is 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games overall and I think the wrong team is favored in this game.

I think Purdue is the better talent and team, but Notre Dame (9-1) has a very tough home court and in these marquee match-ups it tough to win away from home.  Looks like a difficult game to pick, so I passed.

I guess I didn't really answer your question.  Notre Dame  is (7-0) at home and Purdue is (0-1) on the road losing by 7 at Louisville.  Not a bad loss, but I would take Notre Dame at home with such a small line if I were forced to play the game.

#10.  Akron -8 over Marshall

In this game, Marshall will be without 6’7” Terrence Thompson who averages 12 PPG and and 8 RPG and this will spell trouble against Akron’s two 6’10 seniors that will over power and out rebound Marshall without Thompson.

Akron has an 89 RPI and has faced both #8 Gonzaga and #10 Creighton.

Akron played Creighton tough losing 70-82, but covering the 12.5 pt. spread.

In their last two road games Marshall lost:

By 11 (85-96) to Chattanooga

By 9 (80-89) to E. KY

I put the (7-3) Akron Zips at home a notch above either of these teams.

Since last year, on the road Marshall is 0-5 SU with losses by 9, 9, 10, 11, and 18 points, so Akron laying -8 in this game does not concern me.

Akron comes into this game looking to bounce back after losing 61-43 at Gonzaga. 38 Gonzaga is a very good team this year and it was a tough spot for the Zips travelling to the West Coast. Now they are back at home facing a Marshal team that they beat 75-65 last year on Marshall’s home court.

Akron has won the last 4 meetings holding Marshall to 65 points or fewer.

This year, Marshall is giving up and average of 98 PPG on 45% shooting in 3 road games against Ohio State, Eastern Kentucky, and Tennessee Chattanooga.

Of their loss at Gonzaga, I think we get a big effort out of the Akron Zips today as they catch a Marshall team that historically struggles on the road.

I agree.....everyone should do their research.

Can't win them all, but I will take a 9-3 day if I can get it.  Hang in there.

#11.  Middle Tenn. University +3.5 over VCU

Caution……I was going to pass on this game, but I am forcing myself to make this play.  I really like this MTU team and I really want them to win.  VCU has been strong at home ATS, which is the only thing that concerns me.

Since an early season loss to (8-2) Tenn State, MTU has been a perfect 8-0.

At (10-1), MTU has one of the Top RPI’s in the country at #7.  If you don’t understand RPI,  I suggest you google it.  In a simple explanation,  RPI is very important in the team selection for the NCAA Tourney and how they rank teams based on the difficulty of their schedule and how each team has performed against this schedule.

At (8-1) VCU has a respectable RPI of 98, but there is a big gap between #7 and #98.

MTU is (3-0) on the road this year and have a couple of respectable road win at (7-3) Mississippi.

MTU crushed (5-5) Vandy 71-48 (by 23 points)

Va. Tech lost at home to (5-3) Ga. Tech

Va. Tech lost by 18 (46-64) on a neutral court to Illinois

Va. Tech just won by 3 points at (5-4) ODU (67-64)

If MTU wins this game, they will certainly be moved into the Top 25 ranking, which I feel is a huge motivation for this team.  I have not done the research, but I am not sure they have ever been ranked.

The nice SU win today by Georgetown as 8 or 7.5 point dog shows that teams can win on the road.  I think MTU +3.5 is a the right bet and I may have to put some on the ML at +145 because I think they have a great chance to win this game SU.