Saturday CBB Plays

#1.  Georgetown +8 vs. Syracuse

n the last 9 meetings, Georgetown has won 6 of them.  They seem to have the CUSE's number.  In the 3 games won by Syracuse the scores were:

58-55 in OT (by 3 points)

64-61 in OT (by 3 points)

58-51 (by 7 points)

Both teams have played Wisconsin this year and lost.

Syracuse 60-77 (by 17 points)

Georgetown 57-73 (by 16 points)

Georgetown has a RPI of 97

Syracuse has a RPI of 159

On 12/5 Syracuse 50-52 to a UCONN team with a 153 RPI.

Georgetown has a better FG % and in the last 5 games Georgetown has shot 51.3% while Syracuse has struggled somewhat at 39.8%.  From the FT line Georgetown shoots 77,5% vs. Syracuse at only 66.5%.  In games between these two teams it could come down to FT's late in the game as they usually play very physical and tight games.

The road team is 7-2 ATS in the last 9 meetings.

The underdog is 6-2 ATS in the last 8 meetings.

I am thinking Georgetown +8 points is hard to pass up.

 #2.  St. Bony and Niagara OVER 151

St. Bony has evolved into a consistent scoring machine this year with the following points scored in ther last 6 games resulting in 6 straight covers of the OVER.

80-81 (161)   OV total of 156.5

81-75 (155)   OV total of 154

90-84 (174)   OV total of 151

81-74 (155)   OV total of 153

89-63 (152)   OV total of 150

102-71 (173) OV total of 160

Niagara has scored at least 71 points in 7 of their 11 games this season and they are averaging 75.1 PPG this year and giving up an average of 82.4 which is an average game total of 156.5.

St. Bony averages 82,9 PPG and gives up an average of 74.6 which is an average game total of 157.5.

Over is 10-1 in St. Bony’s last 11 games as a favorite.

Over is 13-3 in St. Bony’s last 16 games played on Saturday

Over is 21-8 in St. Bony’s last 29 games overall

Over is 7-2 in Niagara’s last 9 games.

I expect Niagara to score on their home court at least 72 points, which is less that St. Bony gives up on average and as a 14 point favorite St. Bony will need at least 86 point, which brings this game in at 158.  This will cover the 151, but I expect it to be easily into the 160’s.

Sports 411 - I get an alert as a VIP the minute the lines are posted and I bet within 2 minutes of the line going up and opening at 8

 #3.  Va. Tech -29 over the Citadel

It has to be a special situation before I would EVER consider laying -29  points.  This game has all of the appearance of a special situation.

The Citadel has played 2 games this year with spreads and 2 games against major conference teams.  The following is the result.

Iowa State  130-63  (lost by 67)

Arizona State 127-110 (lost by 17)

So they have only played 2 major programs and gave up 130 and 127 points and lost by an average of 42 points.

Va. Tech has the 47^th RPI in the country.

Va. Tech beat Michigan 73-70

Va Tech won at Nebraska 66-53 (by 13)

I think Va. Tech scores at least 115 points in this game and holds Citadel to about 75, which is 8 points more  than the 67 PPG that they allow.  This should give them a comfortable 40 point win. 

• VT are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 home games.

• VT are 21-7 ATS in their last 28 games overall.

• VT are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games as a favorite.

• Citadel are 4-11 ATS in their last 15 games overall

By the way, the total on this game is set at 190……I bet it goes over.

 #4.  UCLA  -9 over Ohio State

This will be by far the toughest matchup this year for Ohio State playing #2 UCLA.  I realize UCLA has some injury issues but they are the same issues they had when they beat Michigan 102-84.

How is Ohio State that had to go to overtime to beat (3-5) FAU going to stay within 10 points of #2 UCLA.  They can’t IMO.

Ohio State’s record at (8-2) is not as good as it looks as their RPI is 80.

On the other hand #2 UCLA has a RPI of 22 and they are still 11-0 on the season.

UCLA averages 97.4 point per game and they are winning by an average of 23.3 points and these wins have be at KY (9-1), against Michigan (8-3) and Tex Am (7-2) all solid programs.

The only quality wins by Ohio State against major conference programs has be AT HOME against (4-5) UConn 64-60 (by 4 points and (8-2) Providence 72-67 (by 5 points). 

• UCLA are 8-0 ATS in their last 8 games overall.

• Over is 9-3-1 in UCLA last 13 overall.

I am on the Bruins to stay undefeated and cover the 9 point spread.

Hard to call a team shooting 51.3% from the field TOO undisciplined, but I know what you mean.

 #5.  Northern Iowa – 1.5 Over Iowa

How can Northern Iowa be favored over the team that just beat Iowa State?  Easily.

Northern Iowa (5-4) is much better than their record would indicate, because 2 of their 4 loses were against #17 Xavier.  They have a real quality win at Oklahoma and have played a much more difficult schedule that (5-5) Iowa.

N. Iowa has a very respectable RPI of 73, while Iowa has a very poor RPI of 178. 

Iowa also struggles on the road and they are still without 6’9” Tyler Cook and his 14 points and 6 rebounds per game.

Iowa has not won a game on the road this year they are 0-3.  On the road they only shoot 38% while allowing their opponents to shoot 47% from the field.

lost at N. Dame 78-92 (by 14)

lost on a neutral court to Memphis 92-100 (by 8)

lost on a neutral court to Virginia 41-74 (by 33)

This is an instate rivalry and IMO it is more important to N. Iowa as they have beaten Iowa 2 of the last 3 meetings and I think they catch them this weekend in a great spot off of their upset victory of another huge rival Iowa State.

-IOWA is 3-14 ATS in their last 17 games overall.

-IOWA is 4-9 ATS in the last 13 meetings.

Another little tidbit – N. Iowa beat Oklahoma and Oklahoma is favored today by 11 over a Memphis team that beat Iowa by 8……TMI

I am on N. Iowa laying the 1.5 points to protect their home court and Iowa is a lot easier than play Xavier again.

 #6. South Florida +13 over South Carolina

It’s 10:30 pm and I have been going at this for a few hours, so this will be it for tonight on the early games as I am starting to get a little “goofy” as I do this last SHORT write-up.

I don’t love taking this South Florida team, but I sure would not be confident laying -13 points with South Carolina right now.  Taking double digits favorites on the road is like dogs chasing cars, they aren’t around long.

Looks like I am going to split-out tonight at 1-1, because I was not disciplined and broke my #1 rule and laid -10 points on UTA over a pitiful Bradley team.

OK….here it is.  Since South Carolina lost their All-American Thornwell – 19 points per game, 7 rebounds per game and 4 assists per game, what have they done for me lately.

They have played 2 games without Thornwell with the following results.

Game 1 - They beat a terrible 5-5 FIU team by 16 points at home and did not cover the 21 point spread.

Game 2 – They lost on the road to Seton Hall 64-67 and were a 3 point dog.  Does that tell you something about how the odds makers felt about them without Thornwell.

The only thing good I can say about (5-3) South Florida is that they shoot better from the field than South Carolina at 48.4% to 45.2% and they are 4-1 at home and I think 13 points is too many for South Carolina to be laying on the road now that they are without Thornwell their All American.

I certainly expect South Carolina to win this game, but South Florida getting +13 is a little to tempting and I will take my chances that they keep it respectable at home.

Back in the morning with the late afternoon and night games if your interested…..BOL to all.

I would call St. Bony OVER and UCLA *'s right now.  Also, thinking N. Iowa gets a *

I generally will be the same amount on each game an then will find a game like MTU the other night where I will bet 3x my normal wager.

Over and out for tonight....take care!

Yep, I got 157.5.  The highest I saw all day was 160, which would be a PUSH.

The way the game was set up looked funny at my Book, so I went to the N. Iowa website and it shows this as a home game on their schedule.  At worst it could be a neutral site that is a larger arena due to the crowd.  If it was at Iowa, the Hawkeyes would be favored by at least 3.

#7.  Indiana -2.5 over Butler

This line looks like a trap, but I will step into it.

OK, you’ve got #9 Indiana playing #18 Butler and the line is only -2.5, what’s up.  Is 9 positions in the NCAA ranking only worth 2.5 points.  Anunoby is supposed to be back in the line-up for the Hoosiers tomorrow and this is theoretically a home game, but it is being played in Banker Life Arena, not the Hoosier Assembly Hall. 

They both have RPI’s that rank in the top 50.

What has Indiana (8-1) done this year?

1. They beat #7 North Carolina 76-67 (by 9 points)

2. They beat #3 Kansas at Kansas 103-99 (by 4 points).

No other team in the Country has two more impressive wins than that and the only have one loss, albeit a poor one in OT.  Since beating North Carolina they have won their last 3 games by 42, 38 and 23 points.  Are they really getting this little respect of their wins over Kanas and North Carolina?

What has 9-1 Butler done this year?

1. On a neutral court they beat unranked Arizona 69-65 (by 4 points).

2. On a neutral court they beat unranked Vandy 76-66 (by 10 points).

3. The won at unranked Utah 68-59 (by 9 points)

4. THEY LOST IN THEIR ONLY OTHER TRUE ROAD GAME TO INDIANA STATE (71-72).

Both teams shoot 49% from the field, but Indiana is better defensively holding teams to 37.5% vs. Butler’s 41.5%

Off their wins over #3 Kansas and #7 North Carolina, I have to support Indiana in this game laying only the small number at -2.5