Saturday CBB Plays

#12.  Tulsa -9 over Texas State**

Texas State has only played 2 true road games this year.

-They lost to (5-8) Texas Rio Grande Valley by 11 points (61-72)

-They lost to (3-7) Texas San Antonio by 15 points (48-63)

Tulsa (4-4) is far better than either of these Tier 2 school programs.

Tulsa does not have a great RPI at 185 due to their relatively weak schedule having only played top teams Wichita and Oklahoma State and losing both games.

But Texas State has one of the highest RPI’s in the country at #322 (it does not get much worse than that people)

In their last game, Tulsa lost at (8-2) Oklahoma State (#63 RPI) by only 4 points (67-71).  This is what I call a great loss as they covered the spread of +9.

Tulsa is 8-3-2 ATS in their last 13 home games.

This is somewhat of a David against Goliath and I think Tulsa will be hungry for a convincing win off their close loss to Oklahoma State.

I feel good laying only -9 on Tulsa against a very weak Texas State team that has not shown they can lose by less than 10 points on the road to Tier  2 programs.

Selections are  below

In games against decent programs and teams this year ORU has given up the following points:

Mo. State 86 (last game)

Oklahoma 92

Michigan State 80 (they average 72)

Oakland 92

Tulsa 79

Mississippi 95

Now ORU plays #10 ranked Creighton at (10-0) that averages 91.6 point per game and shoots a 54.3 FG% and 45% from 3 point range.

Creighton is winning their home games by an average of 89.7 to 66.8, which is 23 points and very close to the spread of -24.5

ORU on the road this year are scoring an average of 68.6 points per game while giving up 85.2 points per game and losing by an average of 17 points.  GUESS WHAT….Creighton is no average team.

Creighton just beat power house Longwood by 55 points (113-58), so this team does not let up when they even have a power house like Longwood on the ropes.

Creighton has exceed the Century Mark 3 times this year – 113 vs. Longwood, 112 against N.C. State and 103 against Washington State.

If Oklahoma can beat ORU by 26 and if Oakland can beat ORU by 28….what will #10 Creighton do to them.

-ORU is 6-14-1 ATS in their last 21 Sat. games.

-Creighton is 23-8 ATS in their last 31 home games.

-Over is 15-7 in CRE last 22 non-conference games.

-Creighton is 34-16-1 ATS in their last 51 games overall.

Based on the ability of Creighton to score easily 90 points or more and how big of a difference there is in talent between these two teams, I am making a rare two plays in one game.

#X.  Creighton -24.5 over ORU

#14. Creighton and ORU over 160.5

Yes sir!

Off to a decent start on the day at 3-1 on early games that are final…..a good sign.

#15.  Indiana State +8 over Valparaiso

I think Valpo will miss Adekoya  in this game against a physical IN. State team .  He is a 6’7” power forward that averages 9 PPG and 6 RPG and was just declared academically ineligible.

Prior to their last game IN. State beat #18 Butler and I think they came out a little flat in their game against Western KY.

What impresses me about this team besides the Butler win is how they have played some other tough teams on the road.

They lost on the road at a neutral site to (7-3) Stanford by 3 (62-65)

They lost on the road at a neutral site to (6-3) Iowa State by 2 (71-73)

I think (5-5) IN. State comes ready to play tonight  off their poor performance in their last game.

As a direct comparison:

On the road, IN. State won at Ball State by 6 points (80-74)

At home, Valpo played Ball State and won by 6 points (79-73)

While IN. State is (5-5) they are a very solid (7-3) ATS.  They are also (2-1) on the year in true road games.

IN. State is (7-2) ATS in their last 9 games overall.

IN. State is (10-4) in their last 14 games played on Saturday.

The last 3 times these teams have played the largest margin of victory has been 6 points and the average margin of victory is 4 points – these 2 play tight games, so getting 8 point is pretty strong.

Without Adekoya, I think Valpo laying 8 points is worth taking and IN. State has proven their worth by beating #18 Butler.  I am taking the +8.

Quote Originally Posted by undermysac:

Good stuff man, you are doing a lot of work. Good luck

Thank you....I have done it for years on Basketball and really enjoy it....especially on the winning days.  Follow you in football, but have only been on here about a month and watched for a while before I decided to start posting about 10 days ago.

#16.  Vandy -3 over Chattanoga

In my opinion, Vandy -3 is too low and is an over-reaction to their last game against at MTU where Vandy got hammered 48-71 (by 23 points)

Vandy was clearly not ready for this game and shot a miserable 32% from the field and MTU is a decent team that shot 46% from the field.

But one game does not or break or define who a team is.

I think Vandy bounces back big in this game tonight.

Here is how crazy some games and situations can be.

Vandy hammered (8-2) Tenn State 83-59 (by 24 points).  Tenn State who was hammered by Vandy goes on the road and wins at MTU  by 11 points (74-63).  Go figure….I think Vandy has an exceptionally poor game and MTU played better than average.

Again, off that embarrassing loss, I expect Vandy to come out ready to play tonite.

Vandy lost on the road to #18 Butler by 10 points (56-66)

Vandy lost on the road to (11-1) Minnesota by 4 points (52-56)

Based on these two games Vandy is better than what MTU did to them in their last game.

Chattanooga has one quality win on the season in their first game over  (6-4) Tenn

Then they lost by 40 to North Carolina (57-97).  This will be their first major conference game in over a month.

I am going to take my chances in this game on Vandy to snap back and lay the small number -3.

Boy is Northern Iowa playing crappy – glad to get the win with UCLA.  Looks like a 5-2 start to the day with counting N. Iowa as a loss.

#17.  Illinois pick over BYU

This line really seems “fishy”.

I am going to keep this short….and see if these RPI ranking really mean anything.

Illinois has a RPI ranking of 69 (my favorite number)

BYU has a RPI ranking of 132

Illinois (8-3) has a couple of quality wins over major conference teams:

-They beat (8-2) North Carolina State that has a RPI of 46 by 14 points (88-74)

-They beat (7-3) VCU that has a 48 RPR of 48 by 18 points (64-54)

Both pretty impressive wins I would say.  Two of their 3 losses were to #12 ranked W. Va and #23 ranked Florida State.

That IMO looks pretty impressive for this (8-3) Illinois Team.

What has BYU done to not be an underdog is this game?

BYU (7-3) has only played two major conference teams and only has one quality win.

-They won over (8-3) Colorado 79-70 (by 9 points)

-They lost to #24 ranked USC 84-91 (by 7 points)

Other than those two games you can say much good about the schedule that BYU has played.

BYU lost to a (5-4) Utah Valley State team by 13 points and this game is a pick’em.  Something seem fishy but I am biting.

This is probably it for the Day.  With todays card there were about 80 possibilities (20% of games) and I found 18 I think have value......hope it all works out!!!

#18.  Fresno State pick’em over Pacific

Fresno (7-3) looks like a far superior team to Pacifc.

This is another “fishy” line IMO, but I am biting.

The only thing it looks like Pacific is their home court where they are 4-0, but the 4 wins were over VERY poor teams.

Fresno State has a very impressive 49.5 FG% vs. Pacific at a very poor 37.3%.  This is a HUGE advantage for Fresno State.  Fresno also shoots 40.6% from 3 point range.

Fresno has shown that they can win and play well on the road.

-They won at Oregon State 63-58 (by 5 points)

-They won at Drake 78-72 (by 6 points)

Fresno’s most impressive game is a loss by 5 points (81-84) at Marquette 10 days ago.  Any effort close to this would destroy Pacific.

Pacific has nothing on their resume near as impressive.  They had 4 straight losses until winning their last game against a (1-9), yes (1-9) 2^nd Tier North Carolina A&T 66-57 (by 9 points)

If both teams play to form and their potential all signs point to Fresno State getting the “W” and with the game a pick’em all they need to do is win.