Posted:
#1
November: 46-38, +5.20
November Leans: 39-38
December: 65-70, -9.45
December Leans: 67-79
January: 44-34, +13.40
January Leans: 40-35
Saw quite a few questions in the other thread about this SDSU/CSU game being played today, so I'll take care of that one first as there is a really interesting dynamic within the game itself. From a situational perspective, SDSU hits the road for the tail end of a two game roady, but it's not your ordinary road-trip. To and from the Wyoming game, they hit five airports as they had trouble on the way home as well (had to re-fuel in Arizona, stopped at five airports in 35 hour span). So, that's a plus. But that's not all. Over the course of the past 10 days, they've gone to altitude in New Mexico, returned home, gone to altitude in Wyoming, had all those travel issues, came home, and they're going right back to altitude here once again into what should be a much faster pace than the last 3 games SDSU has played (all under 60 possessions). On paper, it may seem that each team is going in different directions, but that simply isn't the case. I think SDSU has been quite impressive as of late with what they've done, and it will be even more impressive if they can win here. But I just don't see it, and I see value on the other side. For one, I think it's safe to say that as a team SDSU was much better last year as opposed to this year. They only won by 2 here last season. Colorado State has lost two in a row, but taking a closer look, there are a few things that stand out. First, both games were on the road. Second, if you don't really have an offense that looks to penetrate, you're not going to beat Wyoming. Third, they walked into a buzzsaw at the Pit. And fourth, and the key part as to why I'm on them today, they've had to adjust their lineup the past few games b/c of the opponent. CSU primarily uses a four guard offense. They couldn't do that at Wyoming. They couldn't do that at New Mexico. SDSU uses about the same. They have a bit more size up front, but they're still based on the four guards. Case in point, CSU doesn't have to change a thing here. They get to use the lineups they want, run the sets they want, and should get a bump with an offense that has looked putrid the last few games, at home. I think much has been made of SDSU and the mentality of being an underdog. Heck, they've acknowledged it the past few weeks. Now that they're the favorite, do they take it easy? I highly doubt it, but it's possible. My only concern in this match-up is the Colorado State defense, really. If they're going to win, I think they're going to have to outscore SDSU (this CSU team was a top 15 offense prior to the last roadtrip). And in this spot, I will take my chances. Everything that SDSU has been through the past few days, combined with coming into the altitude yet again, sort of masks my fear of the defense (should see letup in SDSU offense). Situationally with all of the intangibles, I think this is any handicapper's dream spot, and just doesn't occur often. Digging deeper into the matchups and seeing the opportunity to utilize your premier lineup a majority of the game turns that dream into...well, a better dream. This spot is good, and I'm willing to go after it.
5* Colorado State +3
3* VCU +1
2* Bowling Green/Eastern Michigan Under 114
2* Western Michigan -4.5
1* Buffalo -15
That gets me through the day games. Might have one or two tonight.
GL
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