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Posted: #101
neil, what do you think about fiu/w kentucky under 131?  both teams shot above their average fg % in their last games (not against each other, but their last games respectively) and i'm thinking a regression to the mean is in order.  only thing that scares me is the pace in this one.  thoughts?  thanks for all you do neil
 
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Posted: #102
Quote Originally Posted by Peraski:

neil, what do you think about fiu/w kentucky under 131?  both teams shot above their average fg % in their last games (not against each other, but their last games respectively) and i'm thinking a regression to the mean is in order.  only thing that scares me is the pace in this one.  thoughts?  thanks for all you do neil

I can definitely see some regression as both offenses are far from good. Both are also coming off of close losses to FAU, so that's a good thing as well. Another good thing with the under is that FIU's had a week off. I'm not sure if that is good or bad, but Georgetown was in the same boat and it sure didn't help their case as they looked pretty pathetic.

The only negative is the pace. FIU's not all that fast of a team, but they've shown that if they have to play that way, they'll go up and down all day. And WKU ain't slowing down anytime soon.

Definitely value in the under. GL with it.
 
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Posted: #103
What do you think about the Cleveland State/Youngstown State game? Kind of leaning toward CSU with a little revenge on their mind
 
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Posted: #104
BTW nice call on W.Mich
 
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Posted: #105
Great call on Colorado St.
 
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Posted: #106
Quote Originally Posted by JonnyTwoTime:

What do you think about the Cleveland State/Youngstown State game? Kind of leaning toward CSU with a little revenge on their mind

Only side I could take there. Just didn't want more than a possession of chalk. Like Cleveland State's extra time to prep, as well.

GL
 
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Posted: #107
thanks neil.  i've recently gotten into capping basketball (more of a football guy).  a paramater i want to look at was if a team regresses back to their shooting percentage average any more or less off of:  two days rest...3...5.  i must admit, i don't have much time to cap personnel, styles of play, etc.  so i pretty much look at shooting percentages (fg and 3).  i know it's more complex than the following but:  poor teams tend to not score as efficiently so with that being said, when two poor teams match up with each other after shooting at a high percentage rate the game before, i take unders.  again, a lot more to it than that, but that's pretty much my 'system'.  so i was wondering, if there's any correlation to shooting percentages regressing to the mean more or less depending on days rest.  you have any thoughts on that?  i know i repeated myself a lot but thanks for your reply
 
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Posted: #108
I like Columbia to pull the Cornell/Cornell sweep too. Not worth it tonight.

Loving this new IVY stuff though.


 
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Posted: #109
Great job on the sdsu call!!
 
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Posted: #110

Cleve State has revenge but Y- town on a roll at home.  This line is tight...If Cleveland State wins they have first place alone..If Y Town wins they are tied for first.  Uncharted waters for a losing Y-Town program.  The Beeghly Center will be rocking tonight!   I lean to the Penguins to keep this game under the 4 but no play for me.

 
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Posted: #111
 NR   MURRY ST TONIGHT YOU MIGHT HAVE TOUCHED ON IT IS THIS GAME CLOSE START TO FINISH
 
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Posted: #112
Hey Neil, i also like USC u106....what do you think?

 
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Posted: #113
Quote Originally Posted by Peraski:

thanks neil.  i've recently gotten into capping basketball (more of a football guy).  a paramater i want to look at was if a team regresses back to their shooting percentage average any more or less off of:  two days rest...3...5.  i must admit, i don't have much time to cap personnel, styles of play, etc.  so i pretty much look at shooting percentages (fg and 3).  i know it's more complex than the following but:  poor teams tend to not score as efficiently so with that being said, when two poor teams match up with each other after shooting at a high percentage rate the game before, i take unders.  again, a lot more to it than that, but that's pretty much my 'system'.  so i was wondering, if there's any correlation to shooting percentages regressing to the mean more or less depending on days rest.  you have any thoughts on that?  i know i repeated myself a lot but thanks for your reply

I think you're on the right wavelength. Every person is different as far as what they look for, but I like what you're thinking. If you can add situational spots to what you mentioned (travel, time off), and combine that with styles of play (physical defense, zone/man-to-man/full court pressure/sagging defense etc...), then you'll find even more opportunities open up. 

I have had a buddy for years that all he does is NBA, and a bigger part of his focus relies on teams regressing to the mean after a good shooting night, and vice versa. 

GL
 
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Posted: #114
Quote Originally Posted by ac_bum:

 NR   MURRY ST TONIGHT YOU MIGHT HAVE TOUCHED ON IT IS THIS GAME CLOSE START TO FINISH

My totals say over, but yah. Murray State should be able to get whatever they want, tonight. I like Eastern's offense this year. Got a few guys who can compete with the rest of the league, but missing players 3-15. Sad the coach passed on some other talent that would have helped immediately instead of signing his son, but that's a story for another day.


GL
 
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Posted: #115
Quote Originally Posted by ver310061:

Hey Neil, i also like USC u106....what do you think?


First game I crossed off today. I can honestly say I have no friggin idea what's going to happen in that game. With all the changes on both sides, something's got to change with style or pace or something. 

But if nothing changes, then yah, that game will be ugly.

GL
 
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Posted: #116
Quote Originally Posted by nropp11:


Only side I could take there. Just didn't want more than a possession of chalk. Like Cleveland State's extra time to prep, as well.

GL


thanks

 
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Posted: #117
Quote Originally Posted by nropp11:


First game I crossed off today. I can honestly say I have no friggin idea what's going to happen in that game. With all the changes on both sides, something's got to change with style or pace or something. 

But if nothing changes, then yah, that game will be ugly.

GL


Thanks Neil. i will cross it too,,,,,its been a really good day anyway....
 
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Posted: #118
Quote Originally Posted by nropp11:


Yah. Got a weird feeling about that Towson game though. Should be safe. Don't deal with the battle of the UL's. Risky.

I would point Purdue probably. Northwestern struggles to score against physical guard pressure. Game's a toss up, though.

GL


U were spot on with your weird feeling about The towson game!!!!  I had a feeling too since Towson played well lately.  I didn't do the teaser and just went straight with VCU.

Now I got Xavier/Akron/UCSB in money line parlay.   GL on your plays later tonight.

Texas played well vs Baylor.
 
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Posted: #119
hey nropp, what do you thin about Memphis et Minnesota ?

 
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Posted: #120
What ya think about Marshall and Hawaii? Those are the last two I'm considering for the day...thanks
 
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Posted: #121
Well see you're on Idaho, what about Marshall?
 
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Posted: #122
Quote Originally Posted by nropp11:

November: 46-38, +5.20
November Leans: 39-38
December: 65-70, -9.45
December Leans: 67-79
January: 44-34, +13.40
January Leans: 40-35


Saw quite a few questions in the other thread about this SDSU/CSU game being played today, so I'll take care of that one first as there is a really interesting dynamic within the game itself. From a situational perspective, SDSU hits the road for the tail end of a two game roady, but it's not your ordinary road-trip. To and from the Wyoming game, they hit five airports as they had trouble on the way home as well (had to re-fuel in Arizona, stopped at five airports in 35 hour span). So, that's a plus. But that's not all. Over the course of the past 10 days, they've gone to altitude in New Mexico, returned home, gone to altitude in Wyoming, had all those travel issues, came home, and they're going right back to altitude here once again into what should be a much faster pace than the last 3 games SDSU has played (all under 60 possessions). On paper, it may seem that each team is going in different directions, but that simply isn't the case. I think SDSU has been quite impressive as of late with what they've done, and it will be even more impressive if they can win here. But I just don't see it, and I see value on the other side. For one, I think it's safe to say that as a team SDSU was much better last year as opposed to this year. They only won by 2 here last season. Colorado State has lost two in a row, but taking a closer look, there are a few things that stand out. First, both games were on the road. Second, if you don't really have an offense that looks to penetrate, you're not going to beat Wyoming. Third, they walked into a buzzsaw at the Pit. And fourth, and the key part as to why I'm on them today, they've had to adjust their lineup the past few games b/c of the opponent. CSU primarily uses a four guard offense. They couldn't do that at Wyoming. They couldn't do that at New Mexico. SDSU uses about the same. They have a bit more size up front, but they're still based on the four guards. Case in point, CSU doesn't have to change a thing here. They get to use the lineups they want, run the sets they want, and should get a bump with an offense that has looked putrid the last few games, at home. I think much has been made of SDSU and the mentality of being an underdog. Heck, they've acknowledged it the past few weeks. Now that they're the favorite, do they take it easy? I highly doubt it, but it's possible. My only concern in this match-up is the Colorado State defense, really. If they're going to win, I think they're going to have to outscore SDSU (this CSU team was a top 15 offense prior to the last roadtrip). And in this spot, I will take my chances. Everything that SDSU has been through the past few days, combined with coming into the altitude yet again, sort of masks my fear of the defense (should see letup in SDSU offense). Situationally with all of the intangibles, I think this is any handicapper's dream spot, and just doesn't occur often. Digging deeper into the matchups and seeing the opportunity to utilize your premier lineup a majority of the game turns that dream into...well, a better dream. This spot is good, and I'm willing to go after it.

5* Colorado State +3
3* VCU +1
2* Bowling Green/Eastern Michigan Under 114
2* Western Michigan -4.5
1* Buffalo -15

That gets me through the day games. Might have one or two tonight.

GL
What prompted you to research the travel schedule of SDSU in such detail? Nice call on CSU. 
 
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Posted: #123
Quote Originally Posted by MIKECOUU78:

hey nropp, what do you thin about Memphis et Minnesota ?


I would lean Marshall in that game. Didn't spend too much time on it, though. Rough spot for both, I think.

Minnesota game is tough. Cant trust either team to score, but I think this one's going to be up and down. Line at 5 is sharp. Would probably take Minnesota at less than 3 and Illinois at more than 6. Not touching in between.

GL
 
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Posted: #124
Quote Originally Posted by usmabama:

What ya think about Marshall and Hawaii? Those are the last two I'm considering for the day...thanks

Yah I don't like Hawaii. Coming out of a really big game and altitude to an offense that can put points up in a hurry.

GL
 
 
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Posted: #125
neil, Any quick opinion on Seton Hall -1@ home to Lville??
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