shirley, thanks for posted your line, I have a question for you
your line have richmond 3.90 my book have them at -10 so St louis is a play
Yes, St Louis is a dog play with a delta of 6.10
Hold your breath on this one, they're not that good, and we are trusting the computer to point us in the right direction here. It's not my favorite play of the day, but I will have $$$$$ on it. If it loses, I will not be surprised, because a closer look at both teams tell me that it could in fact be a blowout. I still go with the model over my personal opinion, but I have the LIBERTY to use my mind in my evaluations as well.
Everyone should lay off of a game if they think the model is wrong, or they have information or a 6th sense about things that are difficult to quantify. There are some really good handicappers in here, that I'm sure will NOT be wagering on Cal today, even though it is one of my computers selections. I personally have 2nd thought on that game, and will look hard at the moves, and others opinions that I respect for their take on the game.
Shirley
Yes, St Louis is a dog play with a delta of 6.10
Hold your breath on this one, they're not that good, and we are trusting the computer to point us in the right direction here. It's not my favorite play of the day, but I will have $$$$$ on it. If it loses, I will not be surprised, because a closer look at both teams tell me that it could in fact be a blowout. I still go with the model over my personal opinion, but I have the LIBERTY to use my mind in my evaluations as well.
Everyone should lay off of a game if they think the model is wrong, or they have information or a 6th sense about things that are difficult to quantify. There are some really good handicappers in here, that I'm sure will NOT be wagering on Cal today, even though it is one of my computers selections. I personally have 2nd thought on that game, and will look hard at the moves, and others opinions that I respect for their take on the game.
Shirley
first post on this forum. been watching here and there but cant seem to figure out how to convert shirley's system into the lines the books have. will someone help me out and post on here how to do it with an exaple, or PM me with the info. either way it would be greatly appreciated. thanks and BOL to all today. lets make that money
Shirley lists the lines that her computer comes up with. It's our job to find where there is a big difference between her numbers and the actual line. When she says NE 7.6, that means her module says NE will win by 7.6. (She doesn't use the negative sign, she just lists the favorites according to her computer module). Meanwhile the actual line on that game is NE +1...so this is an easy play...the difference is 8.6...a difference of 4 qualifies for a play.
ok guys - based on those numbers and the current lines here is how it is:
i will list the play, then the difference
underdogs:
northeastern - 10.1
unc - 7
cuse - 4.1
st louis - 6.1
william and mary - 4.4
wisc gb - 6.3
cal - 6.0
utah - 4.7
tenn - 5.1
ok st - 5.2
tulsa - 8.0
kansas st - 6.5
fresno - 4.0
nevada - 5.6
uc riverside - 4.9
davidson - 5.4
favorites:
nm st - 4.1
miami (oh) - 5.1
long beach st - 6.0
THOSE ARE ALL THE PLAYS THAT DIFFER 4.0 OR MORE POINTS.
NOW HERE ARE ONES BETWEEN 3 AND 4. BUT ONLY UNDERDOGS, BECAUSE SHIRLEY SAYS IF U DIP DOWN TO 3, U CAN ONLY TAKE THE DOG. THESE ARE NOT OFFICIAL PLAYS, JUST ONES TO CONSIDER.
underdogs:
ysu - 3.5
bc - 3.6 (play if line moves to +3)
odu - 3.7
seton hall - 3.5
northern colorado - 3.1
hope that clears alot up for everyone
I see mostly UNC + 1.5 (Matchbook, 5-Dimes, Pinny, Bet US, Cris) some +1's. Looks like some RLM w most wagers coming in on UNC. Maybe a ploy by books to deter some big $$$ from sharps... after all it really wont make a diff if UNC wins by a handful or more.
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