Quote Originally Posted by GameHunter:
Great to see you on a hot run SJ.
Can't argue with your results recently. Great job. However, I do have a question. In the Cal-Washington game, you have Wash at -4.80. How do you figure that these two teams are close to even on a neutral court considering Washington has to get around 4 points for home court?
First of all Tks for the support. Coming from you, it means something
I will address your question.
After seeing the updated numbers that my computer has been working on while I was asleep, my adjusted number for this game is Washington 5.10 not 4.80. This difference of 0.30 is almost negligible.
This game has other factors involved. Our model has many variables that are imput, and every team has their own model as does every conference. Some of the variables included are recent form, avg points per shot attempt, final 5 minutes of the game "crunch time" data, distance travelling for tonight's game, number of days off, etc.
We have comprised over 40 variables for our model, which is individualized for every team, within every conferece. It's probably not too different than what the linesmaker does, except we do not have to balance the action, and we are not concerned with public perception, and we can include the underdog-favorite bias in our figures.
This game upon a cursory look should be a blowout. We all know that I Thomas and the gang are undefeated at home, and Holloway (is that his name) is a lights out scorer. However, they do have some weaknesses, and this matchup on this night seems to lean in the direction of the underdog. Since our job is to quantify the inequiites, we have done our best work to come up with this projected line.
Your assumption is that the home court has a fixed value of "X". Well that just depends on the situation , and is not what our model is telling us. It could be worth "X +- 6 points in some situations".
They (Washington) could be a 5.1 favorite at home tonight, and on Saturday be a 7.4 point favorite against the same team on the road. We're never sure until the computer crunches the updated data.
We're not perfect, not even close. However, you have stumbled upon what might become our largest wager of the evening. I sincerley hope it doesn't lose, but the steam appears to be going against us.
If Washington wins by 30, I will accept the loss. However I know I have 2 things in my favor that can not be questioned:
1) I am wagering on an underdog, so am taking advantage of the favorite underdog bias that exists.
2) Washington is a public team, thus their percepted power is overrated. Can you name 1 player on the opposing team this evening? I, honestly, can NOT.
Without giving away the store, I hope I have successfully addressed your query.
Always keep in mind, a girl with a dunce cap is providing you with this information
BOL,
Shirley
good luck today 
good night. and take care.
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