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So I am #4in this bracket pool, winner takes $18K... Can I hedge anything?

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Posted: #1

I have a bracket entry where winner takes all of $18,000 in this particular contest. Two days ago I was #75, yesterday moved up to #42, after tonight's games am #4. My brain literally goes to mush when trying to figure out how to hedge. My final four is Florida, UConn, Wisky and Louisville but Louisville doesn't matter now. I have UConn beating Wisconsin in the final game .So what the freak do I do in my position? 

By the way I cannot see the brackets of the 3 guys head of me.

 
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Posted: #2
Wait what kind of bracket pool doesn't allow you to see other peoples picks. Once the tourney starts its common practice to post the leaderboard with everyone's picks. I would demand to see what picks the other 3 people have or you might get a fast one pulled on you. 
 
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Posted: #3
It's a top three sports books pool. I think that's just the rule they have. I am pretty certain mine of the other three has the UConn Wisky final.
 
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Posted: #4

Quote Originally Posted by its_1999_my:

Wait what kind of bracket pool doesn't allow you to see other peoples picks. Once the tourney starts its common practice to post the leaderboard with everyone's picks. I would demand to see what picks the other 3 people have or you might get a fast one pulled on you. 

BET-US has a pool where you cannot see the other players picks for $10000.

 
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Posted: #5
Maybe someone smarter than me can tell you how to hedge, but unless you can see the other peoples bracket, I don't think it would be possible.  The only way it would be possible is if you were #1 right now and knew if you won out that you'd take the pool.  Good luck
 
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Posted: #6
?
 
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Posted: #7
Taking uconn was pretty stupid, you really think they'll beat much state then fla?

Better figure something out
 
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Posted: #8
I did like six entries and this was just the one that happened to work out. It was only $25. Another scenario I'm thinking is, what if the other three guys have michigan state to win the title or michigan or Kentucky? Any of those teams losing today and I am one step closer. Guess we will know a whole lot more around 5:00 today
 
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Posted: #9
GL
 
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Posted: #10
Let it ride
 
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Posted: #11
Looks like you better root hard for UCONN today (maybe bet your $25 on MSU to get your entry back, and then if you make the FF, figure out some odds strategy.
 
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Posted: #12
Yeah I mean I do think UConn beats msu but majorly concerned about them vs. Florida. I think Wisky handles whoever they get. So I supposed get my entry back on msu money line and hope for UConn into the final four and assess after that
 
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Posted: #13
I think you should bet on Mich State today.   If UConn wins you would have a much greater chance at that 18k than you do now.  But I strongly disagree with you that Wisconsin handles winner of Mich/UK, so we might be on different wavelengths.   
 
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Posted: #14
^^^this. I would bet against UConn/whisky progressively.  definitely a few units this round (especially since I think msu wins today). if somehow UConn wins, then I bet you're in 1st place and can just bet more units against the teams you have each game thereafter.  very very strange that you can't see their picks though. there's always a chance that one of the 3 ahead of you has the exact same teams left and is ahead a point or two from earlier rounds.  in this instance, you would be drawing dead. bol
 
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Posted: #15
Finally!!

I am the one with UConn and Wisky 

16875174155411 Florida vs. 2 Wisconsin, Total: 106View
26153168187134 Michigan St vs. 4 Louisville, Total: 148View
2828016898403 Iowa State vs. 4 Louisville, Total: 142View
453981647211 Florida vs. 4 Louisville, Total: 135View
4671616463514 Michigan St vs. 4 Louisville, Total: 137View
48240164213047 Connecticut vs. 2 Wisconsin, Total: 130View

 
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Posted: #16
Thoughts?
 
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Posted: #17

well, I assume you wouldn't need to hedge the championship game, b/c you should win outright if it's a whisky/UConn final (just to be sure.....how many points for wins in each round?)  first step is definitely throwing something up on msu moneyline today. I'd say throw at least 1k on the moneyline (would win $400+ which should cover your entries at least.)  reassess after tonight, but that should put you in a great spot to hedge the other games you need and lock up a win. 

 
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Posted: #18
there might even be a way to do some big teasers on msu , o/u, and a late game.  a super teaser would give you a shot to hit your bet along with with your UConn win since msu would be getting a few pts. hurts my brain to think of the best way, and it's kinda late to start futzing around with the numbers. let me know what you decide.
 
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Posted: #19
If this is a reputable sports book that will pay out I would certainly hedge.  Your bankroll will determine how you should hedge.  Don't tease or anything like that.  Just take ML's.  Good luck.  
 
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Posted: #20
Quote Originally Posted by viro:

Finally!!

I am the one with UConn and Wisky 

16875174155411 Florida vs. 2 Wisconsin, Total: 106View
26153168187134 Michigan St vs. 4 Louisville, Total: 148View
2828016898403 Iowa State vs. 4 Louisville, Total: 142View
453981647211 Florida vs. 4 Louisville, Total: 135View
4671616463514 Michigan St vs. 4 Louisville, Total: 137View
48240164213047 Connecticut vs. 2 Wisconsin, Total: 130View


Like Molsen said make sure it's a reputable book. If there legit this is what you do bet around 8k-9k on Florida depend on the juice you will probably make anywhere from 5-7K if Florida wins if they lose you won your bracket challenge and get 18K minus your hedge around 12 to 11K. 
 
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Posted: #21
my bad my math was off if Florida loses you get around 9k to 10k
 
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Posted: #22
Quote Originally Posted by Bruinsfan2:


Its comments like thus negative loser that amaze me, stfu Marlo you look like a fool talking that hater bulls.hit, typical you know what!


It amazes me as well...how many times do these fools keep losing bets on the "impossible:   they do it over and over again as if Uconn beating Michigan State is like David beating Goliath.  At the end of the day I really doubt if these fools reflect on all the idiotic things they say daily so that they can cut down on it in the future and not look so stupid...who knows, maybe even profit from not being so close minded and ignorant.
 
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Posted: #23
Wow. I am now in 1st place. If UConn wins the title I get the prize. I don't think there's any other result that would still allow me to win
 
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Posted: #24
Quote Originally Posted by viro:

Wow. I am now in 1st place. If UConn wins the title I get the prize. I don't think there's any other result that would still allow me to win


i think you have to put a decent chunk on Florida ML. I don't like your chances and you gotta be feeling the same. It almost appears that if you get the matchup of UCONN vs Wisky you should win but I of course cant see your points. If this is the case gotta put at least 5k on Florida ML IMO.

And if you do this do it soon because ML is gonna rise significantly
 
 
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Posted: #25
Here's the thing though. I don't think I can put a big sum on the Florida money line because if I lose that, I still need UConn to beat Wisky/Kentucky. Because there are people below me who have Wisky or key as champion and will get 64 Points for the winner of the final game. Make sense?
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