All Forums | College Basketball

So I am #4in this bracket pool, winner takes $18K... Can I hedge anything?

...

Participants:

Posts: 36

BlackMamba14

Prospect

Joined: Mar, 2014

Posts: 42

Posted: Mar. 31, 2014 - 6:34 AM ET #26

Quote Originally Posted by viro:

Here's the thing though. I don't think I can put a big sum on the Florida money line because if I lose that, I still need UConn to beat Wisky/Kentucky. Because there are people below me who have Wisky or key as champion and will get 64 Points for the winner of the final game. Make sense?

Lol. Then you'd have to put another 5k on Wisky ML. But of course I know Florida ML is -290, and Wisky/Kentucky will likely be around -180. So pretty much it will be hard for you to hedge it. I would forget trying to hedge it and go with what you think will happen. If you don't like uconns chances against Florida, maybe put 3k on Florida to ensure a nice payout ($1,000) but not so much that it's a full hedge. Then you'll still have $15,000 riding on the final game if Uconn can somehow win, and you can decide where to go from there.

MoneyShot

MVP

Joined: May, 2003

Posts: 18451

Posted: Mar. 31, 2014 - 8:52 AM ET #27

Just put $500 on Florida ml to at least get your money back from pool and then some.. Then if you lose that bet you can do a huge hedge on the final.

viro

Banned

Joined: Jun, 2003

Posts: 4263

Posted: Apr. 3, 2014 - 12:45 PM ET #28

I am starting to get almost sick to my stomach, pretty sure that Florida is going to win by DD, but the moneyline is sooo chunky... Ugh.

rangerz2478

MVP

Joined: Oct, 2007

Posts: 17830

Posted: Apr. 3, 2014 - 10:45 PM ET #29

So if Uconn wins it all, you automatically win the pool correct? And if they lose, then you have no chance?

If I am assuming both correctly, the value of your pool with a payout of $18,000 is about $1800 right now. Uconn field is sitting at -1130 on 5dimes. So if you wanted to hedge completely, that is what I would do to win on Florida ML. If squeezing $1800 guaranteed is an attractive option, go for it. But that's what I would calculate your pool to be worth right now.

rangerz2478

MVP

Joined: Oct, 2007

Posts: 17830

Posted: Apr. 3, 2014 - 10:51 PM ET #30

Treat it like a stock. If you want to "sell", you can so right now for about $1800.

If they beat Florida, that stock is worth close to $7000. (if we estimate them to be a +150 dog in the final)

The choice is yours whether to sell now for $1800, or let it ride for another $5200 more. Using the current ML price vs Florida, these numbers seem to be in the ballpark.