Posted:
#1
42-27,+20.10
Leans: (30-30)
2* Louisiana Tech +14
1* Louisiana Tech ML +800
This one sort of made me squint a little bit. This game is at Wyoming, the end of a three day round robin tournament and both teams are playing on a back-to-back-to-back here. Simply put, Louisiana Tech is dogged here b/c their offense has been pitiful, especially from the outside. However, new Coach Michael White has some talent to work with. He brought Gaskins and Massey over from Ole Miss, and the entire frontcourt returns. Along with that, they got back Gibson, who missed the entire 2H of the year. It’s not the greatest offense in terms of filling up the hoop, but the talent is there and the go-to-guy in Gaskins is helpful. With Wyoming, I see a team who’s offense has clearly overachieved against an extremely easy schedule. In fact, four of the five Division-1 Schools they have played are at or near the bottom of the country in terms of defense. The one team that is respectable enough (top 150), is Wisconsin Green Bay and they scored a whopping 44. Wyoming brought in Shyatt for his second tenure here at Wyoming to try and get the program working again. Because of the coaching move, Wyoming lost it’s two best players. They still returned a few players, most notably Cruz, who can fill it up from the perimeter. They also brought in the Washington kid who transferred from USC. They also have a few other shooters, and role players that fill in nicely, so the program appears to be on the up and up. The problem is, I see each of these teams as being pretty close to even. Neither team shoots it all that well outside of the paint, so this one should come down to the defensive side of the ball. As it stands currently, Louisiana Tech is defending the three-pointer better than any team in the country, so Wyoming is going to have to look to other avenues of scoring outside of that part of the ballgame, and I’m not sure they have that ability. As I pointed out, their offense has looked good in some games this year, but I think it’s more a glimpse of who they have played. In what I feel should be a low scoring game, I think taking a shot on the better defense, with what I feel is a similar, if not better offense , holds some value. Of course, the b2b2b is a bit concerning, and playing on the road against a 5-0 home team is as well, but I gotta go with what I see as I feel I’m getting a possible 6-8 points of value based on early season results against awful competition. If Wyoming can consistently score on this defense, then I lose, but I just don’t see how they’ll be able to do so. Basically taking a shot on potential here.
Running short on time, here is the rest:
2* Fairfield ML -125
1* Dayton +5
1* Oklahoma/St. Louis Under 129
Lean: New Mexico -13
Lean: UC Davis/Eastern Washington Over 139.5
Lean: Morehead State/Bucknell Under 129
Have a good Sunday.
GL
0
Thanks for the plays.
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