Sunday "Presystem" Play

If you were tracking/watching/following the Saturday plays, you now know why people don't enjoy the presystem and why it will probably continue to win money as its not fun to back the teams the system wants us to. 

The "almost" "presystem" plays Bradley, Riverside, Montana St and Northern Illinois went 3-1 and you will want to track that as the principles of winning still apply even if the game doesn't fit the "presystem" exactly.  Also, keep in mind that I am still of the opinion that the "system" will be stronger as the "lets get the season over" and the "who the eff cares about this crap anymore" takes over a team with no conference championship or post-season aspirations (been there done that as a player and coach), especially went at home (in my opinion). 

Another important aspect of the system is that you now are becoming familiar with these "types" of team (even if you don't want to) and you will be able to find "spots" to bet on or against them even if it doesn't fit the system. 

Let's take South Alabama for example.  On Thursday, SAU won straight up for the system as 11.5 pt underdogs 80-76 over Western Kentucky (another uptempo team). 

Today, SAU was a little overvalued (and that is why its better for the system if our "dogs" barely cover as the books won't adjust nearly as quickly) and lost for the system as +6.5 underdogs, 85-62 to Mid Tenn St (another faster paced team). 

Their next game will be at home against Troy (another very fast paced team) next Thursday.  Troy is 1-11 in away games this season and will have not played for one full week (I think that is actually bad for a fast-paced team this late in the season unless they are dealing with injuries) and is coming off a heartbreaker loss in OT last game. 

Troy played South Alabama two weeks ago and lost at home in a game that featured 83 possessions in regulation with a final score of 83-78.  I suspect this total opens at 152, but anything around 148-150 holds immediate value with the over. 

More importantly, I'm looking to back South Alabama in this game, especially if the line is around -2 or so.  If the line is that low, it doesn't fit the presystem, but our knowledge of how these "crappy" teams have played recently will help us in deciding other games to take advantage of.

As I have stressed in the past over and over again, you can use, fade, follow or ignore this presystem however you want.  If you want to develop your own where you bet 1st halves, 2nd halves, or anything else, you have my blessing, just realize that it is now NOT the "presystem" and that is fine. 

I have also stressed the importance of getting the best line possible with this system and with as many close games as we had today, you would be wise to follow that advice.  If you don't like the presystem, I'm not offended in the least, in fact, I don't like the system either, but I do like winning money consistently so alas I still follow the presystem.

Lastly, I understand that some might have got games like Bradley at 6.5, I didn't get that number so even though it covered for you, it won't be added to the presystem results list (feel free to count it for a win in your personal tally if you like).  Also, I got La Tech +8 on Matchbook so that is a push for me and will be listed as such (feel free to count it for a loss in your personal tally if you like).  I always list the number I got on Matchbook so understand that as you check out the results.

We have one (possible) presystem play tomorrow:
Marist +6 (if it moves up to +6.5 its a system play)

I have numerous other games I like so I'll post them in here if time permits.  If there is one that I think you would be well served to follow, I'll post an "alert" thread about it.  Early leans include Rutgers (if it climbs like I think it will), Florida St, and I'm interested in all three MAAC game totals and the ND/Rutgers total as well.

Below is the "presystem" results starting from last Saturday until now: "Pre" System: 14-3-1

Jan 29th "Pre" System: 6-0
#293 Samford -6.5, LOST by 19 (system win)
#184 Miami (OH) -6.5, LOST by 5 (system win)
#226 Bowling Green -7.5 won by 5 (system win)
#259 Portland St. -9, won by 6 (system win)
#180 Penn -9, won by 2 in OT (system win)
#295 Eastern Illinois -7, LOST by 10 (system win)

Jan 30th "Pre" System: 1-0
#236 Illinois State -6.5, won by 2 in OT (system win)

Jan 31st - NO PLAYS

Feb 1st - NO PLAYS

Feb 2nd "Pre" System 1-0
#203 Southern Illinois -8, LOST by 21 (system win)

Feb 3rd "Pre" System 3-0
#193 Western Kentucky, -10.5, LOST by 4 (system win)
#201 Middle Tenn St -12.5, won by 6 (system win)
#282 Chattanooga -12.5, won by 9 (system win)

Feb 4th "Pre" System 0-1
#186 Penn -11.5, won by 31 (system loss)

Feb 5th "Pre" System 3-2-1
#297 Eastern Illinois -8.5, LOST by 6 (system win)
#237 Tenn St -10.5, won by 9 (system win)
#204 Western Kentucky -11.5, won by 20 (system loss)
#180 Western Carolina -11.5, won by 10 (system win)
#207 Mid Tenn St -6.5, won by 23 (system loss)
#189 Fresno St -8, won by 8 (system push)

If you are new to the thread, read this link before asking the good people in here any questions: https://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=40&sub=100965010

BOL KP

Not saying this out of hating, but to keep the records clean most people could only get LA Tech at +7.5, not the +8 you have listed.  Regardless if it was +8 or +7.5 wouldn't have made a difference in choosing the play.

cool, you are the man kine

 

t you .  good stuff here.. i bet n illinois  @  bradley

I call it a system loss, 7.5 was the # in my book, o well, doesnt change much

La Tech was a loser for most people.

I had La Tech @ +8 ... Pushed and won using it in a teaser, nice play KP, keep up the great work

Thanks for all of your hard work, Kine.  I am new to the site and have been following your picks and respect your opinion.  Anyway....along the lines of becoming familiar with these "types" of teams...do you have any thoughts on the St. Peters/Canisius game tom?  I'm leaning towards St. Petes +2.5.  

Hello someone me podria to abridge the forecasts of the day?? I am Spanish and do not understand very much the ingles.y all the units every forecast goes if it is not many molestia.gracias

Kine, cool system.  By the time I found it yesterday I only had time to play on E. Illinois and Tenn St games, but the 2-0 was nice to see (for a change).  Will be following with interest.

cool system prof keep up the hard work i check your forum everyday had a great day on saturday lets break them bookies

Thanks for all you do.

Good job man. Good luck today .

Good stuff Kine!

I don't post much but I follow the forums each day.  I like the principles that your system is based on.  I think emotions and heart are much more important in college sports and this system seems to target teams with less than normal motivation (for all the reasons you give) and I love to go against that!

Keep up the great work!  I was just watching the "pre"system for the first several days but jumped on yesterday.

Thanks!

Love the cowbell

Nice job Prof....Had the last game at plus 7 1/2....If THAT game would have come in, I would have had an unprecedented day....But such is gambling....Just knew somehow that hook was going to get me and that I wouldn't catch a "dirty one!"....This system will get stronger as the last few weeks come about, Esp. THE "DOUBLE DIGIT DOGS!"...Quite easy to see why poor teams could give a crap less about winning these games as big "chalk!"....As always, my best!

BOL KP

Once again, excellent work KineProfessor, and a spectacular write up

have u noticed  if the plays that become plays later in the day (like South alabama yesterday>>stated @ 6 , went  to 6.5) , do not win as often as those that are plays right out of the gate like NCGreensoboro was yd?.....Cant thank u enough for all ur help,,,,,very much appreciated.

KP: Realize that there are no 'pre-system' plays today, but are there games that you like?

As always thanks     

Thank You Sir,,,,

gl KP