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Sunday "Presystem" Play

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Posted: #51
BOL KP, Thanx

 
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Posted: #52
Quote Originally Posted by funguyy:

KP or any of regular followers of system. Why isn't Rider a play today? Fairfield is outside of 180, at home and favored by 6 1/2.

Thx.

? Fairfield is ranked 80
 
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Posted: #53
i got marist at +6.5 on bet365
 
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Posted: #54
marist now at 6.5
 
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Posted: #55
You still thinking about rutgers and the total Kine?..Thanks,,good luck today!
 
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Posted: #56
Marist +7 at places now, game starts in 10 mins.
 
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Posted: #57
One of my books just went to +7 Marist....the rest +6.5
 
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Posted: #58
Just jumped to 7
 
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Posted: #59
Line is up to 7 now.  It looks to be a play.
 
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Posted: #60
marist at 7 and dont tip off for a few hours but it would be a syetem play now
 
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Posted: #61
6.5 HERE
 
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Posted: #62

5DIMES NIAGARA -7

BETUS 6.5

 
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Posted: #63
marist + 7 at 5 dimes
 
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Posted: #64
LA Tech never went to +8 on any books except BetUS and you can't really count them, although they are good to have as you get some unreal lines on Dogs.

Here are the line moves on that game:
https://www.covers.com/sports/odds/linehistory.aspx?eventId=804593&sport=ncb

But you could have bought it to +8 with some extra juice. Matchbook had offers at +7, +7.5 and +8, but juice is higher for the higher numbers. KP probably paid -120+ for +8. Well worth it. But does that mean that we always buy an extra half point? I guess we gotta use our gut and decide which ones to add to.

GL
 
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Posted: #65
MARIST + 7 HERE
 
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Posted: #66
agree with Barnstorm there just use judgement one some of the games
 
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Posted: #67
Quote Originally Posted by paul_scholes:

Marist +7 at places now, game starts in 10 mins.

3pm start time.
 
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Posted: #68
Quote Originally Posted by Barnstorm:

LA Tech never went to +8 on any books except BetUS and you can't really count them, although they are good to have as you get some unreal lines on Dogs.

Here are the line moves on that game:
https://www.covers.com/sports/odds/linehistory.aspx?eventId=804593&sport=ncb

But you could have bought it to +8 with some extra juice. Matchbook had offers at +7, +7.5 and +8, but juice is higher for the higher numbers. KP probably paid -120+ for +8. Well worth it. But does that mean that we always buy an extra half point? I guess we gotta use our gut and decide which ones to add to.

GL
Agree bro .. La Tech should not be counted as a push . That baby did lose .. Close .. but a loss .. I should have bought the 1/2 point like most did .
 
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Posted: #69
Quote Originally Posted by Barnstorm:

LA Tech never went to +8 on any books except BetUS and you can't really count them, although they are good to have as you get some unreal lines on Dogs.

Here are the line moves on that game:
https://www.covers.com/sports/odds/linehistory.aspx?eventId=804593&sport=ncb

But you could have bought it to +8 with some extra juice. Matchbook had offers at +7, +7.5 and +8, but juice is higher for the higher numbers. KP probably paid -120+ for +8. Well worth it. But does that mean that we always buy an extra half point? I guess we gotta use our gut and decide which ones to add to.

GL

It was 8 at my casino here in Reno

 
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Posted: #70
Will you fucking guys quit w/the stupid Q's, asked over & over again.  NO NO buying pts does NOT qualify a game.  The object is to get the line as posted by the books.  JFC!!
 
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Posted: #71
Kine,
I want to personally thank you for the articulate write ups and tremendous analysis (both from a mathematical and a strategic perspective).  Your ability to express your thoughts is excellent; I really enjoy reading your thoughtful comments.  Keep up the great work.  Know that it is appreciated.

Best,
Histprof
 
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Posted: #72
Marist +7 for me jumping on it
 
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Posted: #73
Playing Marist +7.
 
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Posted: #74
Quote Originally Posted by smatt721:

Great work KP..... I've been following but not commenting in the thread to clog it up. I have a couple of questions & thoughts.

Yesterday I read where u said some tout services had posted the UL-Monroe play & recognized the larger than usual volume of plays on that game via.....pregame.com. Does anyone here know if these same tout services had posted the La Tech play last night??

Pregame had posted ....5601 # of plays on the Monroe game with 78% ATS backing of Monroe.....the line opened @ +11/ & moved up to 12/ before setting @ 12 @ tip.

I also noticed last night...3764 # of plays on the La Tech game with 67% backing on La tech...the line opened @ +6 & moved to +8 before setting @ +7/ @ tip...

Might I suggest we continue to watch these type of movements on pre system plays, because they could develop a trend that these reverse moves on the public are the plays with the highest loss rates???

I'm not saying @ this point to not play them, however I did lower the Units I placed on La Tech because of what I saw with the move of the line......

From what I have seen on these smaller games, typically they average 1500 to 2700 # of plays.

Sorry for such a long response, I'm just curious what ur thoughts are reguarding whom is putting out what & the potential to identify system plays that should require lower units placed on them..

 

I think this is definitely worth tracking so if you could take the reigns on this that would be great. Its just another tool to help us, but lets remember to not put too much stock in the "public" as it can be deceiving, ie: 73% of bets at say $100 a pop wont necessarily move the line if 27% of the action is say at $1,000 a pop.

Also i think TDH or someone mentioned tracking the first half results of the system, another great idea in my opinion. Would have to go back and look but off the top of my head Tenn Martin and LaTech were winning s/u at halftime yesterday.

Put these couple things together and we may find a couple "systems" within the system to be double effective. Idea being something like what happend last night with LaTech: Play 1 "main system" play LT +8, Play 2 "line movement system" buy down to say -7, Play 3 "halftime favorite losing" play favorite for 2H if within the fg spread (Fresno -7 last night).

Sorry for the long response, and I have full faith in KP's system and will be playing them all for the remainder of the season, but if we all put our heads together we might be able to "boost" the system by following these trends mentioned in earlier posts, working together, and sound money management.

Thanks again KP and to everyone working together to make some !

 
 
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Posted: #75
betphx 7
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