Thursday NCAA Hoops

Puerto Rico Notes:

Last few years, I have had success with Game Unders, 1H Unders, and 2H over Middle opportunities in the morning games. The games I had been able to track and take note of the last two years have come in at 75%, with a possible 6 middles, and 5 of them hitting. I don't feel like I have to do that this year b/c their might be an adjustment in these totals if we see some, but keep in mind travel, weary legs, and teams don't typically shoot well over there at all (with the exception I think Miami FL shot real well last year or year before b/c they arrived a ton earlier than everyone else.

George Mason at Villanova in Puerto Rico

For the first time in about 10 years, Coach Larranaga finally has a team that can do what he has preached since he entered coaching - scrambling defense and a running offense. Yes, GM is young, but they fit the perfect mold of what he has wanted to do all along and that's run and gun. The problem that this poses in this style of game with Villanova is simple. You can't do it against Villanova and expect to win. There can be arguments made about whether or not he will try to slow Villanova down, but knowing Larranaga, he's going to stick to his guns. His main purpose of the run and gun was to have other avenues of winning conference games, and it should work in the CAA. There is no point in changing that up early in the season when you can get experience on it before conference play starts in a few weeks. This is a simple blanket play on offseason research and a guess. They haven't had the ability to play up-tempo with Liberty or Dartmouth thus far due to slow styles of play, so I'm expecting this number to come out a bit lower than it should. Not going big, just trusting a hunch.

This Dayton/Georgia Tech game should be pretty good. Both are ranked depending on what poll you look at, and I think Georgia Tech's ranking is more about expectations than actual proven talent. Dayton, on the other hand, brings back 4 starters I think and made a good run last year. This is by far Georgia Tech's toughest game until January 9th at Duke. Dayton already beat Creighton this year, who I feel is better than Georgia Tech. With that said, I laid off, only for the fact that it's an early tip, and Dayton needs to shoot well to win. Dayton has faced quality competition, GT has not. I'll learn more from watching this one, but I think the right team in the Flyers is favored. Mississippi's athleticism will be a bit too much for Indiana who has had some key injuries early, although Indiana will play harder than anyone in the country, I just don't think they have the talent quite yet to compete or be any better than .500. Probably won't touch an Indiana game until mid-season. Tulane and Miami Florida's strong points are guard play. If Penn State is able to capitalize on the most turnover prone team of the past two years in Wilmington, then they should win pretty handily. I've learned one thing about Penn State, you just can't trust them in the favorite's role, especially at a neutral site.

GL

totals aren't a big market, meaning it could be a few hundred bucks that swayed the movement. i'd still take this at 150.

probably - should be up early afternoon.

Rider at Virginia

If Virginia could have only slid by Big East Cellar Dweller South Florida the other night, we'd be looking at a much higher spread and better value, but I will gladly accept the +5 in this spot. First off, Virginia is implementing a new system this year that has only a few games of experience under. They've slowed the pace and tempo down quite a bit, playing possession style basketball w/ Bennett at the helm. The defense has been alright, but the problem is, in order to play that brand of basketball, you have to have some scoring ability and I just don't see it. As for Rider, they feature Ryan Thompson obviously, and bring back 3 others who averaged double digits last year. They feature a four guard spread with a center who can play on the outside. It's entirely way too tough for Virginia to try and defend it. In past year's, you can relate Rider to Duke and Bradley's offensive styles of "PAK" (pass and kick). Virginia fared horribly in both those matchups. With four guards, and the better offense, I'm going to side with Rider here to follow up their victories at #18 Mississippi State and Lehigh with a victory here at Virginia. There is a slight concern with Kentucky on deck and the big win early in the year, but the minute they got off the flight from MSU, they went back to work, so I like the effort. Fear the lookahead, but I'm not.

Noticed Richmond bulked up in the offseason, their strength is officially on the inside. W&M has the better guard combo here though I think. Should be a pretty boring game. Both offenses run a princeton variation and a matchup zone. Think the game will be closer than the indicated spread, but who knows. Alot are predicting Richmond to compete for the A-10 with Dayton, but i'm not one of them. I put them in the over-achieving crowd last year, and they do have quite a bit back, but I don't see it. Those close games they won last year can swing the other way this year. Monson and Long Beach State are trying to get on the map. In the last 5 years, they've played 1 top 30 team. This year, they scheduled five. At the end of the non-conference schedule, they will have played the toughest SOS in the country. Take notice. Too many new faces at Santa Clara to even glance. Not sure about the Davidson/USF game, although I would've given USF a slight advantage until the NCAA violations story came about. Not betting against Cuse in MSG. Yes, they play zone and Cal's strength's are shooting the 3 ball, i ain't doing it. This is Pac-10 travelling east into a building where it's tough to shoot. Pitt just destroyed a team that had 6 players kicked off the squad due to drugs, and I'm not familiar with Pitt's roster, but any Eastern Kentucky basketball game will come down to the 3ball. They shoot well (like they did against Tech, Cincy, Kentucky past few years), they'll stay in the game. If they shoot bad (like they did against Duke), they get blown out. No touch for this guy. Uh, the first thing I noticed about Pacific is that they just got back from playing in the altitude of nothing in Stockton to going to 7000 feet in Flagstaff. That can't be an easy task to complete, especially going against a defense that changes more throughout the game than any other team in America. NAU will go man, then they'll switch it up to zone, then might throw in a full court press, you just never know. Pacific hasn't really proven anything this year to cover a 3 point spread, so if Jones for NAU is able to stay hot, then NAU should come out on top.

GL

probably bowl season. MAC's been a mess this year. Too much time and effort going into hoops at the moment.

GL