Posted:
#1
YTD Posted: 90-72-10
Yesterday: 3-2-1 (+0.75 units)
Week: 11-3-1 (+6.75 units)
Three for three on profitable nights thus far during the week, though the Nebraska loss was a definite let-down. I like these small-conference cards, particularly this titanic OVC matchup...
Morehead State @ Murray State Under 125.5 (1 unit)
These two know each other as well as, if not better than, any pair of opponents in the whole country having played 5 times in the past two seasons. Last year, Morehead handed Murray its only conference loss in the first meeting, but Murray returned the favor with two consecutive wins including a decisive victory in the Ohio Valley championship game. In the first meeting this year, Morehead exacted a bit of revenge with a 10-point home win. Both teams sit at 12-4 in conference and a Morehead victory would wrap up the regular season championship, while a Murray win would more than likely seal it in favor of the Racers.
There will be no other surprises on either side tonight, meaning scoring should be really low given the high degree of familiarity. Both teams play at a crawling speed (Morehead: 277, Murray: 309) and can be excellent defensively. Morehead has no bench and consequently needs to grind out possessions in order to have an adequate number of bodies. At first glance, this total probably seems low, especially since they played to a total of 140 early in the season. But it was 63-56 with under 2:30 remaining before a massive foul fest produced 21 more points. Obviously, that could happen again, but Morehead is far less efficient offensively on the road and Murray State's defense at home is simply stifling (55 ppg, #18) with a defensive efficiency rating at #15.
This is going to be an intense, high-pressure game between two teams that turn the ball over frequently while generating plenty of turnovers as well. Murray State forces 16 turnovers per game at home and Morehead coughs it up 15 times per game on the road. Murray is also quite turnover prone (#251 turnovers committed). I think we'll see a slow game with a ton of contested shots and a lot of pressure defense. Hopefully both teams are in full lockdown mode and we get a game played in the mid-high 50's. If this one goes over, it should be as a result of late fouls, but I think the score will be low enough to overcome that possibility. Another area that plays to the under is free throw shooting. Morehead shoots around 66% (#258), but Murray's numbers are extremely strange. The Racers hit 77% of their free throws on the road but only a 61% at home. I have no idea why such a startling disparity exists, but they're the 17th worst free throw shooting team in the nation at home...
More to come later, just wanted to get that one in
Yesterday: 3-2-1 (+0.75 units)
Week: 11-3-1 (+6.75 units)
Three for three on profitable nights thus far during the week, though the Nebraska loss was a definite let-down. I like these small-conference cards, particularly this titanic OVC matchup...
Morehead State @ Murray State Under 125.5 (1 unit)
These two know each other as well as, if not better than, any pair of opponents in the whole country having played 5 times in the past two seasons. Last year, Morehead handed Murray its only conference loss in the first meeting, but Murray returned the favor with two consecutive wins including a decisive victory in the Ohio Valley championship game. In the first meeting this year, Morehead exacted a bit of revenge with a 10-point home win. Both teams sit at 12-4 in conference and a Morehead victory would wrap up the regular season championship, while a Murray win would more than likely seal it in favor of the Racers.
There will be no other surprises on either side tonight, meaning scoring should be really low given the high degree of familiarity. Both teams play at a crawling speed (Morehead: 277, Murray: 309) and can be excellent defensively. Morehead has no bench and consequently needs to grind out possessions in order to have an adequate number of bodies. At first glance, this total probably seems low, especially since they played to a total of 140 early in the season. But it was 63-56 with under 2:30 remaining before a massive foul fest produced 21 more points. Obviously, that could happen again, but Morehead is far less efficient offensively on the road and Murray State's defense at home is simply stifling (55 ppg, #18) with a defensive efficiency rating at #15.
This is going to be an intense, high-pressure game between two teams that turn the ball over frequently while generating plenty of turnovers as well. Murray State forces 16 turnovers per game at home and Morehead coughs it up 15 times per game on the road. Murray is also quite turnover prone (#251 turnovers committed). I think we'll see a slow game with a ton of contested shots and a lot of pressure defense. Hopefully both teams are in full lockdown mode and we get a game played in the mid-high 50's. If this one goes over, it should be as a result of late fouls, but I think the score will be low enough to overcome that possibility. Another area that plays to the under is free throw shooting. Morehead shoots around 66% (#258), but Murray's numbers are extremely strange. The Racers hit 77% of their free throws on the road but only a 61% at home. I have no idea why such a startling disparity exists, but they're the 17th worst free throw shooting team in the nation at home...
More to come later, just wanted to get that one in
0
GL tonight JFen!!
Hot Forum Topics
