All Forums | College Basketball

Thursday Presystem Plays

...
Participants:
Search model icon
Views: 34958
Posts: 242
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Feb, 2010
Posts: 223
Posted: #51
Good luck in Vegas Kine Prof..   $20.00 on red at the roulette wheel..lol
 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Apr, 2008
Posts: 3823
Posted: #52
at Diamond, Samford just dropped to 7.5... crazy... 

 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Feb, 2011
Posts: 57
Posted: #53
Hi Kine,

In yesterday's post you mentioned historic data.

I went back and generated results for the 2007/2008, 2008/2009, and 2009/2010 seasons using the year end rankings for your system.

While  this isn't exact, since the year end rankings will not sync up perfectly with where the teams would have been ranked from week to week throughout a given season, I think it is still a good measure of the validity of your system over time.

 Home Favorite Ranked >179 * For Road Dogs of 6.5 or more - * Assuming $100 Bets

Season            Month      Record    Percent      Net
2007/2008    NOVEMBER  5-9-1         35.7%     -$490
2007/2008    DECEMBER  22-7-1       75.9%    $1,430
2007/2008    JANUARY      27-26-1     50.9%     -$160
2007/2008    FEBRUARY   18-14-2     56.3%      $260
2007/2008    MARCH         6-3-1         66.7%      $270
2007/2008    OVERALL      78-59-6     56.9%    $1,310
                
2008/2009    NOVEMBER  10-12-1     45.5%      -$320
2008/2009    DECEMBER  16-13-1     55.2%       $170
2008/2009    JANUARY      48-22        68.6%    $2,380
2008/2009    FEBRUARY   36-20        64.3%    $1,400
2008/2009    MARCH         7-3            70.0%      $370
2008/2009    OVERALL      117-70-2    62.6%    $4,000
                
2009/2010    NOVEMBER  17-10-1      63.0%      $600
2009/2010    DECEMBER  19-18-1      51.4%       -$80
2009/2010    JANUARY      24-26         48.0%     -$460
2009/2010    FEBRUARY   42-27         60.9%   $1,230
2009/2010    MARCH         10-1           90.9%      $890
2009/2010    OVERALL      112-82-3    57.7%    $2,180
                
OVERALL     NOVEMBER  32-31-3     50.1%     -$210
OVERALL     DECEMBER  57-38-3     60.0%    $1,520
OVERALL     JANUARY      99-74-1     57.2%    $1,760
OVERALL     FEBRUARY   96-61-2     61.1%    $2,890
OVERALL     MARCH         23-7-2       76.7%    $1,530
OVERALL     OVERALL  307-211-11   59.3%     $7,490


Hopefully you get a chance to see this before you take off today.

Enjoy Vegas.
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Jan, 2010
Posts: 444
Posted: #54
Enjoy Las Vegas. I'll be there in early June.
 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Dec, 2007
Posts: 1890
Posted: #55
Thanx KP, love the thread and keep the plays coming

 
Rookie
Participation Meter
Joined: Oct, 2009
Posts: 543
Posted: #56

Get up and get yours KineProf. I hope the postive energy that you  distribute through this forum finds its way back to you ten-fold in Vegas.

 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: May, 2010
Posts: 2310
Posted: #57

KP and system brothers, I think we're missing a game here. Correct me if I'm wrong though

327 Western Illinois at 195 North Dakota St.

Line is -15 for North Dakota St

Regular lines are posted for both teams.this year.

Play would be Western Illinois +15 no?

 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Oct, 2008
Posts: 4616
Posted: #58
Quote Originally Posted by Greymatterstats:

Hi Kine,

In yesterday's post you mentioned historic data.

I went back and generated results for the 2007/2008, 2008/2009, and 2009/2010 seasons using the year end rankings for your system.

While  this isn't exact, since the year end rankings will not sync up perfectly with where the teams would have been ranked from week to week throughout a given season, I think it is still a good measure of the validity of your system over time.

 Home Favorite Ranked >179 * For Road Dogs of 6.5 or more - * Assuming $100 Bets

Season            Month      Record    Percent      Net
2007/2008    NOVEMBER  5-9-1         35.7%     -$490
2007/2008    DECEMBER  22-7-1       75.9%    $1,430
2007/2008    JANUARY      27-26-1     50.9%     -$160
2007/2008    FEBRUARY   18-14-2     56.3%      $260
2007/2008    MARCH         6-3-1         66.7%      $270
2007/2008    OVERALL      78-59-6     56.9%    $1,310
                
2008/2009    NOVEMBER  10-12-1     45.5%      -$320
2008/2009    DECEMBER  16-13-1     55.2%       $170
2008/2009    JANUARY      48-22        68.6%    $2,380
2008/2009    FEBRUARY   36-20        64.3%    $1,400
2008/2009    MARCH         7-3            70.0%      $370
2008/2009    OVERALL      117-70-2    62.6%    $4,000
                
2009/2010    NOVEMBER  17-10-1      63.0%      $600
2009/2010    DECEMBER  19-18-1      51.4%       -$80
2009/2010    JANUARY      24-26         48.0%     -$460
2009/2010    FEBRUARY   42-27         60.9%   $1,230
2009/2010    MARCH         10-1           90.9%      $890
2009/2010    OVERALL      112-82-3    57.7%    $2,180
                
OVERALL     NOVEMBER  32-31-3     50.1%     -$210
OVERALL     DECEMBER  57-38-3     60.0%    $1,520
OVERALL     JANUARY      99-74-1     57.2%    $1,760
OVERALL     FEBRUARY   96-61-2     61.1%    $2,890
OVERALL     MARCH         23-7-2       76.7%    $1,530
OVERALL     OVERALL  307-211-11   59.3%     $7,490


Hopefully you get a chance to see this before you take off today.

Enjoy Vegas.


Well done, our numbers match up very closely.  It should be no real surprise to anyone that betting against mediocre teams that are big home favorites is a money-making proposition.

Also, you can see that Feb and March are the "best" times to follow this line of thinking and betting. 

Lots of people keep commenting on the "motivation/give up" factor I mentioned in previous threads, but the true principle of the system is being against mediocre teams that have inflated lines because they are at home.  The "motivation/give up" angle is a hypothesis as to why to works so well in Feb and March.
 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Oct, 2008
Posts: 4616
Posted: #59
Quote Originally Posted by Yungstar:

KP and system brothers, I think we're missing a game here. Correct me if I'm wrong though

327 Western Illinois at 195 North Dakota St.

Line is -15 for North Dakota St

Regular lines are posted for both teams.this year.

Play would be Western Illinois +15 no?



The Summit League is not a conference we use in the "system"
 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Oct, 2008
Posts: 4616
Posted: #60
Quote Originally Posted by Yungstar:

KP and system brothers, I think we're missing a game here. Correct me if I'm wrong though

327 Western Illinois at 195 North Dakota St.

Line is -15 for North Dakota St

Regular lines are posted for both teams.this year.

Play would be Western Illinois +15 no?



But I would again argue that betting against inflated home favs is an excellent idea whether it fits my "system" or not
 
Rookie
Participation Meter
Joined: Dec, 2005
Posts: 724
Posted: #61
GL in Vegas Kine.  Your posts are great.  Thanks also to greymatterstats for all that back work on the system.  I for one don't mind wagering on these teams.  You generally see more of the motivational issues that drive the system from them then you would the big conference teams. 
 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: May, 2010
Posts: 2310
Posted: #62
My mistake, I forgot the excluded leagues.
 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: May, 2010
Posts: 2310
Posted: #63

Quote Originally Posted by KineProfessor:



But I would again argue that betting against inflated home favs is an excellent idea whether it fits my "system" or not

Would you believe that if someone bet AGAINST all DD home faves yesterday, that would have gone 7-0

 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Mar, 2009
Posts: 8
Posted: #64

i also jumped on that troy/south bama over @ 149-

that is crazy low!!!!!

 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Jan, 2007
Posts: 1709
Posted: #65

my book didn't have totals until just now and i got it at 151.  hopefully i don't moosed by 2 points.  good luck everyone and thanks for the play kp. enjoy your time in vegas!

 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Feb, 2010
Posts: 223
Posted: #66
Samford down to +7 at 5 Dimes
 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Dec, 2007
Posts: 2770
Posted: #67

hope u kill the casino in vegas + the books! let us know some stories when you leave!

 

 
All-Star
Participation Meter
Joined: Jun, 2008
Posts: 12813
Posted: #68
 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Oct, 2008
Posts: 4616
Posted: #69
Quote Originally Posted by BonoBob:

Samford down to +7 at 5 Dimes


That is crazy, that line should be closer to +10, not +7 - WOW
 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Oct, 2008
Posts: 4616
Posted: #70
Idaho St still +6 and getting pounded on Matchbook so that one may or may not be a play

SE Missouri St holding firm (I'd love to get +13 if I can) this will probably be a 2-unit play (1-unit for the presystem and 1-unit because I would have bet it anyway)

SAMFORD DOWN TO +7 - that is craziness!  I'm not locked in and I'm going to wait and hopefully get atleast +8 on Matchbook at decent juice, its a system play and I'll be playing it nomatter what, but not sure what number that will be at. 
 
Rookie
Participation Meter
Joined: Feb, 2011
Posts: 598
Posted: #71

kp..any insight on the tn tech/murray st game?

 
Rookie
Participation Meter
Joined: Feb, 2011
Posts: 598
Posted: #72
i'm leaning tn tech...just wondering if anyone had any insight on this one.
 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Dec, 2009
Posts: 1043
Posted: #73
Just want to  give u weather tip, it's very comfortable spring weather this weekend, it's about high 50's during daytime , and low 40's at night. Just need to bring a thick jacket , and some cash to double up. Good Luck, hope to see u at las Vegas Hilton or the M Resort.
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Feb, 2010
Posts: 223
Posted: #74
I screwed up bad....Samford was +8 when i first went to bet it, and decided to wait till they went to 8 1/2   Out thunk my self....Kine, should i still bet it and buy it back to +8?
 
 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Oct, 2008
Posts: 4616
Posted: #75
Quote Originally Posted by ka4life:

kp..any insight on the tn tech/murray st game?



Murray coming off a huge win Saturday so maybe a bit of letdown but they CAN certainly cover this number if they are focused
All Forums | College Basketball
About Us
Contact Us
Careers
Our Team
Brand
Testimonials
Betting Guides
Sportsbook Reviews
Sports Betting News
Podcasts
Responsible Gaming
Sports Betting
US Betting Sites
Canada Betting Sites
Canada Casinos
Best Betting Apps
Contests
Streak Survivor
King of Covers
Ultimate Race
Office Pools
The Covers community has
618,670
lifetime members worldwide
Covers 25 Years Logo Established in 1995,
Covers is the world
leader in sports
betting information.
Site Map Help Privacy Terms of Service youtube logo facebook logo twitter logo instagram logo linkedin logo google news logo
Covers is verified safe by: Evalon Logo GPWA Logo GDPR Logo GeoTrust Logo Evalon Logo
Copyright © 1995 - 2024 CS Media Limited All Rights Reserved.

If you choose to make use of any information on this website including online sports betting services from any websites that may be featured on this website, we strongly recommend that you carefully check your local laws before doing so.It is your sole responsibility to understand your local laws and observe them strictly.Covers does not provide any advice or guidance as to the legality of online sports betting or other online gambling activities within your jurisdiction and you are responsible for complying with laws that are applicable to you in your relevant locality.Covers disclaims all liability associated with your use of this website and use of any information contained on it.As a condition of using this website, you agree to hold the owner of this website harmless from any claims arising from your use of any services on any third party website that may be featured by Covers.