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Tourney Time Part 2

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Posted: #26
Alright.. stepping out for a bit
 
my play for 7pm games is CLEM O 64 1H & i'm on Texas MLine
 
 BOL guys!
 
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Posted: #27
Quote Originally Posted by talented_al:

I DON'T KNOW WHERE YOU GOT YOUR INFO FROM , BUT I HAVE VCU WITH 63% OF THE 25,500 BETS RECORDED AND UCLA WITH 37 %. MONEY LINE IS THE SAME 67% VCU AND 37% UCLA ....

It is quite interesting when the majority of the bets are on one side (VCU) and the line actually goes the other way (UCLA)...

Hmmmmm...            

You also MUST factor in the fact that the Bruins have 3 (or possibly 4, not sure) players who have now been to 4 Final Four's...and in my opinion Darren Collison is one of the best tournament players I have ever seen (I'm not kidding), he really knows how to get it done in the "Big Dance".

Personally, I have UCLA on several 6 and 8 point teasers at -1.5, -2, and PK...I don't want to sweat out the 8 point spread if it comes down to that. Just my $0.02 right there.

 
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Posted: #28
Ill give you some info on VCU. They are a fast paced team who has the best guard in the league who can put up points on any team. UCLA is not half the team they were in the past few times in the tourney and I see an upset in this game I took VCU in my bracket and taking them with the points. They win when it counts such as the tournament they tore everyone in the CAA up. Upset Duke last year, Look for the upset to UCLA this year I am going with it.
 
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Posted: #29
VCU upset Duke two years ago when Duke was a 6 and they were an 11.  There were three seniors on that team.
 
VCU is good, but they missed the tourney last year.  Maynor was an accessory two years ago.  He cannot win a game by himself against a major conf. team like UCLA.
 
HOWEVER, he can moose a spread by himself.
 
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Posted: #30

Quote Originally Posted by joe_shmoe:



And last 3 opening tourney games have gone under for UCLA. 

This is great info right here joe...I've already played the UNDER at 136.5...UCLA really steps up their defensive pressure in the tourney and they turn into slow it down, half-court team that values each and every possession offensively. The only thing that scares me is the VCU press and how UCLA will react to it...I'm hoping they don't decide to take advantage of too many easy buckets after breaking that press.

 
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Posted: #31
Oops, when I said UCLA has players that have been to 4 Final Fours I obviously meant 3 Final Fours...sorry bout that. Kinda impossible to play in 4 Final Fours and still have eligibility.
 
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Posted: #32
Quote Originally Posted by L8kersFan74:

Oops, when I said UCLA has players that have been to 4 Final Fours I obviously meant 3 Final Fours...sorry bout that. Kinda impossible to play in 4 Final Fours and still have eligibility.

Unless you play for Jerry Tarkanian or Kelvin Sampson

 
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Posted: #33
Triple play Gonzaga-
Akron will not be able to keep up offensively, only have 2 starters averagind double digits and are a bad shooting team-not good when your playing Gonzaga's 2nd in the nation fg defense  
Zags by 20+
Double play on Oklahoma-
Morgan State also will not be able to stay close with only 2 double digit scorers as well, their leading scorer had limited points vs quality teams plus more importantly B.Griffin will have a field day...
 
 
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Posted: #34
Another thing I'm looking at now is possibly doing a ML underdog chase system...we know there will be upsets and there haven't been any yet. I might play a .25 unit on these next dogs and go up to .50 unit on the next wave of underdogs if none hit.
 
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Posted: #35
Quote Originally Posted by flashspom:

Unless you play for Jerry Tarkanian or Kelvin Sampson

I hadn't thought of that...maybe we can throw Todd Bozeman in that mix?

 
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Posted: #36
Yeah!  Bozeman is doing it right.  Go to an obscure program so no one ever tracks how many years anyone is there
 
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Posted: #37
Quote Originally Posted by Answer:

Triple play Gonzaga-
Akron will not be able to keep up offensively, only have 2 starters averagind double digits and are a bad shooting team-not good when your playing Gonzaga's 2nd in the nation fg defense  
Zags by 20+
Double play on Oklahoma-
Morgan State also will not be able to stay close with only 2 double digit scorers as well, their leading scorer had limited points vs quality teams plus more importantly B.Griffin will have a field day...
 

I just played the Zags -7 1st Half...I can see the Zags scoring 35+ in the 1st and limiting the Zips to 25 or less.

 
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Posted: #38
I won't be on the rest of the night...just wanted to chime in with a few thoughts on tonight's games, still having some computer issues at home with a virus or something. I can read the threads but can't log-in with the issue I'm having.
 
I was telling Raiders this earlier today and I just wanted to let everybody know that I think the 1st round of this tournament is the most difficult to cap...I think it gets much easier after we've seen all these teams play a game in the tourney and the majority of the "have nots" have been eliminated. Over the years I've done very well after the 1st round, so, I think the key if we're going to bet these 1st round games is to go small and survive to play this weekend and beyond. GL tonight everybody!  
 
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Posted: #39
Joe,
 
Any thoughts on the upcoming games?  you like anything?
 
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Posted: #40

VCU's worst Out of Conf. Loss was to Oklahoma in DEC @ a neutral court - Lost 70 81 : Beat N mex in neutral by 12: Lost to Vandy by 5. Ok was only OUC L by the number tonight. And they're a lot closer to home than UCLA.

 
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Posted: #41
Hope you guys get me some winners tonight.  Cuz I suck.
 
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Posted: #42
I am on the under in the UCLA 1H.  And I have UCLA FG.  That's it for now.

The system is a respectable 4-2 so if you can be patient, then just wait until something fits the 2H system.  I'll be around to post those this evening.  Hoping at least 2/4 fit the bill.
 
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Posted: #43
right on Joe, sounds like a plan!
 
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Posted: #44
Quote Originally Posted by joe_shmoe:

I am on the under in the UCLA 1H.  And I have UCLA FG.  That's it for now.

The system is a respectable 4-2 so if you can be patient, then just wait until something fits the 2H system.  I'll be around to post those this evening.  Hoping at least 2/4 fit the bill.


Glad you like these two as I put half-units on them already myself. BOL
 
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Posted: #45
Joe - The system you are speaking of is it the 2nd half system or are 1h plays included as well?
 
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Posted: #46
tks, joe......patience I am afraid is the problem with most....
 
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Posted: #47
BOL Joe...let's do this!
 
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Posted: #48
playing Villanova/American U30 1st 10 minutes
 
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Posted: #49
Is EC back in the box?
 
 
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Posted: #50
Quote Originally Posted by wufman:

Joe - The system you are speaking of is it the 2nd half system or are 1h plays included as well?


The 1H and 2H systems are "systems" I created.  The 1H system is not in effect for the tourney b/c it relies heavily on head-to-head data, which isn't available for most games.

My regular 2H system relies on head to head data as well, but b/c of the lack of data, I am basically running a modified system that doesn't have that piece.  But I feel like there is enough information from the 1H and other factors to make the 2H system effective.  Between yesterday and today, it's definitely in the positive... probably running at about 65% (small number of games).
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