Posted:
#1
November: 46-38, +5.20
November Leans: 39-38
December: 65-70, -9.45
December Leans: 67-79
January: 51-37, +22.50
January Leans: 40-35
Day off yesterday, looks as if Alabama State won without Washington - Biscuits. As for today, there are a few games I’m interested. First, I think I’ve pretty much made it clear this year that I’m not a big fan of Clemson’s offense. They go minutes upon minutes without scoring, and that’s clearly going to be magnified in a game that should be played at a snail’s pace. If you look at their ACC schedule thus far, five of the six teams they’ve played are five of the worst defenses in the conference. All six games were also played against fairly up-tempo teams, some a bit more than others, so while the offensive output of 68 points per ACC contest looks good, it’s extremely misleading. One, they’ve played the weakest ACC schedule, and Two, they’ve played the faster ACC schedule against teams who don’t exhibit all that great of a defense. Yes, they have a quality win over Florida State, but that came at a time when the FSU offense was pitiful, and that game was at home. So, why isn’t this a good spot for Clemson? Continuing on the theme of a lack of offense, here’s what they’ve done in games below 61 possessions (using 61 as a barometer b/c that’s Virginia’s highest possession total in ACC play - keep in mind Virginia's defense #4):
They scored 59 on Coastal Carolina (Defense #159)
They scored 59 on Furman (Defense #232)
They scored 58 on South Carolina (Defense #173)
They scored 60 on Winthrop (Defense #175)
The one thing in common in all of those games? They were at home.
They also had one more game less than my possession barometer here of 61 possessions. It came on a neutral site over in Hawaii against an eerily similar defensive style with what Virginia wants to do tonight, and that was UTEP. They scored 48 (Defense #177).
So, this team really hasn’t gone into a hostile environment against a really, really, really good defense like Virginia, yet. I find that truly remarkable that a team like Clemson has yet to play on the road against a good defensive opponent. The hardest situation on the year that they’ve gone into came when they went to Arizona (Defense #35). They scored 47 points in 63 possessions. Now, past performances are clearly no indicator of how well or terrible Clemson will play tonight. These teams are fairly familiar with one another. Or are they? Clemson’s Brownell is a defensive based coach. I think that’s reasonably accurate to assume that he lives on defense. Over the course of the past ten years, his stops at UNC Wilmington, Wright State, and now Clemson, have come to an average offensive ranking of #139, and an average defensive ranking of #53. His focus is on the defensive side. Brownell has only seen Bennett’s style of play once. They came here last year, and scored 47. And, they had a bunch more scoring options (the duo of Stitt and Grant). They also had a much better defense. They also had Milton Jenning’s four offensive rebounds, a key part as to why they stayed in the game (had 14 second chance points). Considering that both of these coaches rely on their defense to carry them, this game should be a snail....
0
Hot Forum Topics
