Univ. of Pacific @ UCLA -- game discussion and analysis

YTD: 2-2, +3.80 units
UCLA: 2-2, +3.80 units

Might as well get my thread on this game started.... very disappointed with my Bruins last night, let Pepperdine hang around in the 1H and then couldn't bury them to help cover the spread in the 2H. They definitely looked better in the 2H but that ain't saying much considering they needed a 10-0 run to end the 1H to get back into that thing.

My initial lean in this game? Pacific +6.5 and Pacific ML +230. UCLA has historically under Howland always, always suffered one early season game where they either barely beat or get beat by a team that has no business hanging around with them. Everything is aligning for UOP to be that team this year:

• UCLA was 2-8 last year SU in games on 2 days or less of rest.
• UCLA is going to be without their leading returning scorer, SG Malcolm Lee. He suffered a sprained ankle and will not play tonight.
• UCLA will only have 8 scholarship guys available tonight -- foul trouble could be a problem
  
• The Lee injury consequently means we are going to be seeing freshman Tyler Lamb starting at the 2 guard spot. Not a bad thing, but you know what is a bad thing? That means the first guard off the bench is none other than my most hated player on this team, Jerime "turnover" Anderson... and he'll be going against a zone no less! Recipe for disaster!
  
• If a team like Nevada was "perplexed" by Pacific's zone defense, what the hell is UCLA going to do with it?
  
• UOP is an experienced team starting 3 seniors. UCLA will start 2 sophomores, 2 freshman, and a first year Jr. JUCO transfer. Huge experience edge to UOP

Not gonna lock it in yet, but that is definitely what I am leaning.

What do the rest of you think?

good info...gl on your play kap

yeah, wasn't too impressed with ucla last night. but haven't seen pacific play yet.

WOW....thanks for the info....i was going to lay BIG on this game with UCLA!!!!....any chance of them just winning..let me know .....thanks again 

If Pacific plays a "perplexing" zone, UCLA is in trouble - they looked lost at times last night.  Thanks for all the info.  GL kap.

Kapono, I'm leaning toward Pacific as well, they are up to +7 at my book at the moment. UCLA just looked so terrible at times last night, I can't get past their first half.

As always, appreciate your info and insight.

Exxxactly

I like it.  UCLA did not look good last night without Lee.  The only concern I have is UCLA's big (huge) center.  Can anyone on Pacific match up with him?  Or are they fast enough to get him into foul trouble early?

If it wasn't for him I would say I favor Pacific SU!

I cannot understate how terrible of a PG Jerime Anderson is. If Lazeric Jones gets into early foul trouble and Anderson is forced to play a lot of minutes, trying to beat a zone? Watch the hell out.

He has had a problem so far this year picking up early fouls -- he just doesn't really have full control of his body. If anyone on UCLA's squad gets in foul trouble, this will be very, very bad for them.

You might be able to wait until closer to gametime in hopes that UCLA's public name recognition will continue to push this line up... Right now 5dimes has the ML at +275, I'd like to see if it can get to +300 before I lock it in.

There's apparently a chance that freshman PG/SG Matt Carlino, who has been out with a concussion, could possibly play tonight. Not the best spot for him to get some action considering the experience of Pacific, but if he plays he's supposed to be a "shooter" who might help UCLA with the zone... but it's still up in the air whether or not he suits up tonight.

I'd also lean UNDER pending the number that is released. UCLA should have an increased emphasis today on defense considering that is what sparked their 2H run and is the best way to prevent a zone from getting set up. Pacific isn't a big squad and so they should not have a ton of 2nd chance points. UOP has 7 players who get 90% of their minutes, and they are 5 seniors, 1 junior, and 1 sophomore.

ucla killed me last night... got em at 17 and they were up over 20 with 2mins left...

Helped me to my second half cover with Pepperdine + 9.5

Couple of stats for you. I am not leaning either way but am curious to see your thoughts.

No reason to imagine they couldn't perrier (great stats/first post, btw -- welcome to covers).



Pacific is much smaller as a whole as opposed to UCLA -- that may play a role in the  effectiveness of a zone, although Pacific's was good enough to completely flummox Nevada in the 2H when they went to the zone almost exclusively.

UCLA's stats will be skewed by their blow-out against CSUN. UCLA isn't exactly the best free throw shooting team out there either.

BRUINS

BOL KAP

Good Luck tonight Kap

I am kinda liking these plays too Kap!  I was very impressed with Pacific demolishing NEV 2H last night.  I honestly saw Nevada winning outright as a dog but it wasn't even close from the opening tip in the 2H.  BOL!

How about that "kaponofor5" poster

Another thing to consider: Right now UCLA has zero home court advantage. Pauley was basically empty last night and the fans were seriously quiet during the entire game. Has to bode well for an away team.

 

 

Good luck today bud......I need an alias before I get to 10,000 posts.....guess kaponofor5 is gone