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Univ. of Pacific @ UCLA -- game discussion and analysis

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Legend
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Posted: #26
UCLA was 14 of 25 from the line last night... on their home rims!


 
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Posted: #27
In their first game at Pauley this season, UCLA was 20 for 32 against CSUN... still not good at all.

Let's check out Pacific from the FT line in their two games:

Pacific @ UTEP:  3-10 from the line
Pacific vs. Nevada (at Pauley): 19-20 from the line (!)

Hard to take anything from that really.
 
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Posted: #28
Big time UCLA 7 points is way too few to shave they made their money last night now its time to pound Pacific who looked like a HS team a lot last year.  UCLA by 40.
 
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Posted: #29
UCLA by 40? You're in dreamland... UCLA will have trouble scoring 40 points against a zone, nonetheless winning by forty
 
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Posted: #30
Kap - send me a PM, I have something for you
 
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Posted: #31
perrier -- had to add you as a friend first, accept me and then hit me up on PM
 
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Posted: #32
I went to the UCLA game last night.   I see the free throw percentage as a problem for UCLA.  If Josh Smith can have a second half like he did last night, and they can make free throws, I think UCLA can win by 10-15 points.  Athletically UCLA is much better than Pacific and I see Josh Smith and free throws as the keys tonight.
 
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Posted: #33
Kap - I tried that first, it seems that friends requests are not coming through ("No friends pending")

Hit me up directly at jamesk1044 at gmail 
 
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Posted: #34
Quote Originally Posted by backdrcover:

I went to the UCLA game last night.   I see the free throw percentage as a problem for UCLA.  If Josh Smith can have a second half like he did last night, and they can make free throws, I think UCLA can win by 10-15 points.  Athletically UCLA is much better than Pacific and I see Josh Smith and free throws as the keys tonight.


If Smith can stay out of foul trouble he's gonna be very tough for Pacific to deal with... then again, in a zone, its not frequent that you get a 1 on 1 in the post like he prefers.

I believe that Pacific's best post player is also a perimeter guy, that means either Nelson or Smith is gonna have to be guarding someone who likes to float to the perimeter
 
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Posted: #35

Think this gets to 8.5 Kap? UCLA name alone should drive the late nite chasers to taking the Bruins....

Also like the under..... kinda see a 59-56 game...

 
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Posted: #36
I think it's definitely got that possibility, TRAIN -- though anyone who watched the Bruins play Pepperdine last night probably didn't come away too impressed.

I agree that the UNDER is probably the play but boy is that a low number -- 5dimes has 135? I think I'd probably lean towards the UCLA TT UNDER 71 to be honest.... I just don't see how UCLA destroys a solid zone? They don't have the outside shooters this year or the PG play when Anderson is in the game to make the right decisions.
 
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Posted: #37
Check your PMs, perrier -- I sent you one


 
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Posted: #38
Adding:

Virginia Tech/Kansas State (2H) OVER 74.5 (-110), 2.2 to win 2


 
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Posted: #39

Quote Originally Posted by kaponofor3:

I think it's definitely got that possibility, TRAIN -- though anyone who watched the Bruins play Pepperdine last night probably didn't come away too impressed.

I agree that the UNDER is probably the play but boy is that a low number -- 5dimes has 135? I think I'd probably lean towards the UCLA TT UNDER 71 to be honest.... I just don't see how UCLA destroys a solid zone? They don't have the outside shooters this year or the PG play when Anderson is in the game to make the right decisions.

Its early in the season, but still a b2b. This will be the best team either has seen and I think UCLA will be frustrated if they cant get out and run a bit and Pacific will be facing much more talented ballers than UTEP and Nevada had to offer....You are correct, that under is pretty sharp and the points is probably the better play. Kinda hoped UCLA played better so this line would have been 10ish....

 

gl Kap

 
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Posted: #40

Was looking to Fade UCLA after last nights game,,until I saw Pacific next....In all my yrs of sports betting,, Pacific is my kryptonite..I have NEVER EVER won a bet in 20 yrs on or against Pacific...

I will save you all the trouble of capping as I am 100% on Pacific games......

PACIFIC

 
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Posted: #41

Quote Originally Posted by kaponofor3:

How about that "kaponofor5" poster


Kap you have a certified stalker on your hands.  Now there is a kaponofor6 poster.  Check this LINK.  BOL!

 
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Posted: #42
Post #20,000



Hopefully post #20,000 is one that comes in a winning thread!!

Gonna lock my play in now ... Let's look at the number of points scored by UCLA against zone teams in the Pac-10 last year:

3/6/10 @ ASU -- 46 points total
2/25/10 vs. OSU -- 65 points total
1/30/10 @ OSU -- 62 points total
12/31/09 vs. ASU -- 72 points total

4 games against teams that strictly run a zone, and UCLA averages 61.25 points per game in those games.

Pacific is a very experienced squad with 3 returning starters and the majority of their minutes go to upperclassmen. Let's take a look at how many times Pacific gave up more than 71 points last year -- by my count, Pacific played 35 games and only allowed the other team to score more than 71 points SIX times



Here's my plays for Post #20,000:

1. UCLA Bruins (TT) UNDER 71 (-110), 3.3 to win 3
2. Pacific Tigers +7 (-102), 4.08 to win 4
3. Pacific Tigers ML +265, 1.5 to win 3.975 unit

Good luck to everyone today...


 
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Posted: #43
 
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Posted: #44
pacific small play for me good luck brother
 
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Posted: #45
Quote Originally Posted by jesron1269:

Kap you have a certified stalker on your hands.  Now there is a kaponofor6 poster.  Check this LINK.  BOL!



I wonder when kaponofor11 will show up


 
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Posted: #46
Added two units on Pacific +7.5 and a unit on Pacific ML +280... bets now:

1. UCLA Bruins (TT) UNDER 71 (-110), 3.3 to win 3
2. Pacific Tigers +7 (-102), 4.08 to win 4
3. Pacific Tigers ML +265, 1.5 to win 3.975 unit
4. Pacific Tigers +7.5 (-102), 2.04 to win 2
5. Pacific Tigers ML+280, 1 to win 2.80

Let's hope I am right about tonight's game...
 
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Posted: #47

When it comes to UCLA games, there is nobody i trust more than u kap    

 

Just wanted to say i appreciate your analysis throughout the season, always seem to be in touch with the team.  I'm a NOVA fan myself (grew up in philly burbs), but im also a closet UCLA fan as well, just love the history and watching Darren Collison play a couple years ago got me into the team even more

BOL tonight and the rest of the season kap

 
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Posted: #48
BOL tonight, Kap.  I'm on Pacific +7.5, as I too think that tonight's game will be close.  I think losing Lee on a b2b *really* hurts UCLA here- I don't feel like this squad has played enough meaningful minutes to overcome a loss like that yet.

Plus, no Lee means more Jerime Anderson...ugh.
 
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Posted: #49
I am digging deeper into this game - love your work on this thread - quality stuff my friend
 
 
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Posted: #50
Line moved to 8.5! 
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