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Vegas vs KenPom System Day IV

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Posted: #26
We already have one line movement play:
UL Laf -3
 
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Posted: #27
Quote of the day from MidWestMagician:

My plays are the closest you will find to perfect on this website, im the best college hoops capper on this site


 
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Posted: #28
wow is he serious?! What a Clown....or Magician
 
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Posted: #29

beaver what did ur plays do last night?

5-4? is that right?

follow my plays for a while u will see

 
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Posted: #30

This Magician guy is a clown......

MidWestMagician best capper on this site? 

 
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Posted: #31
Good luck bro.
 
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Posted: #32
Beaver why not just limit your system to opening line difference only, since the line movement systems plays have been
 
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Posted: #33
I like the Zags, but nothing in me would allow me to take Northeastern at +16, just cant do it.  In order to take Northeastern, you would have to just be following this system blindly.
 
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Posted: #34

I think this system should be based on  only the opening number that vegas puts out....not the one it will change to and end up at.

The original number Vegas puts out is what they are "thinking" the line should be and thats the best one to compare to kenpom.

The line changing and ending up at a different number is not what Vegas originally thought or that is what they would have made the number. It is just being changed because of where the money is going as we all know.

As you can see those opening number line games seem to be hitting at the best rate. 

 
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Posted: #35
I think the 4-0 on opening line plays were all dogs. Will  Kent -3 be the 1st favorite to qualify as a opening line play? If so we might wanna keep a separate record between the dogs and favs and see how the records pan out in the future.
 
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Posted: #36
Quote Originally Posted by emeraldsports:

I think this system should be based on  only the opening number that vegas puts out....not the one it will change to and end up at.

The original number Vegas puts out is what they are "thinking" the line should be and thats the best one to compare to kenpom.

The line changing and ending up at a different number is not what Vegas originally thought or that is what they would have made the number. It is just being changed because of where the money is going as we all know.

As you can see those opening number line games seem to be hitting at the best rate. 

I agree, but some of vegas line moves also come from players injury status changing too.
 
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Posted: #37
Quote Originally Posted by MidWestMagician:

beaver what did ur plays do last night?

5-4? is that right?

follow my plays for a while u will see




AND  WHT UR PLAYS MIGHT BE...????
 
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Posted: #38
Quote Originally Posted by No_Contest:

Beaver why not just limit your system to opening line difference only, since the line movement systems plays have been


I probably will.  I just want to continue tracking the line movement plays, just in case last night was just a bad night
 
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Posted: #39
Quote Originally Posted by No_Contest:

I think the 4-0 on opening line plays were all dogs. Will  Kent -3 be the 1st favorite to qualify as a opening line play? If so we might wanna keep a separate record between the dogs and favs and see how the records pan out in the future.


Yes, it is the first fave.  And I agree, we should keep track of both
 
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Posted: #40

shark_apreza you can look at my space on this website and i will post my picks every night before 7.

last night 1-1-1-

wednesday night 1-0

last time i checked beaver-eater went 4-5....but hey stay on his system, lose ur money. my system is 3 years proven and well on its way to another college bb winning season.  

 
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Posted: #41
Great work Beav, im sending you a friend request
 
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Posted: #42
Quote Originally Posted by beaverfan23:



Remember that the 2 point difference can not cross over zero.  In other words, if Vegas and Kenpom have different teams favored to win, it is NOT a play.



Ok thanks Beaver I didn't know that
 
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Posted: #43

Quote Originally Posted by beaverfan23:

Sorry guys I got a late start today.
As hank pointed out, a few kenpom lines have moved making northwestern a non-play and making appalachian state a play.

So the official opening line plays are:
Northeastern +16
Kent St -3
Gonzaga +3.5 (You can get it at +4 at most places but we will do 3.5 for tracking purposes)
App St +7

I will begin tracking almost plays now

Beaver, are these plays even if the line moves one way or the other.

 
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Posted: #44

Here are the real plays tonight,

George Mason -15.5/16

Youngstown St +3

Denver +4

Arkansas LR +3

Arizona +2

 
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Posted: #45
Quote Originally Posted by jigsy:

Beaver, are these plays even if the line moves one way or the other.



Yes
 
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Posted: #46
Quote Originally Posted by MidWestMagician:

Here are the real plays tonight,

George Mason -15.5/16

Youngstown St +3

Denver +4

Arkansas LR +3

Arizona +2



BOL MWM

By the way, you got some very good lines.  I don't see AZ +2 anywhere.  Finding the best line is very important to being successful in this game.  Kudos to you for having the best possible line for all of your games
 
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Posted: #47
 
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Posted: #48
Murray St -4 is an official line movement play.

Updated card:
Northeastern +16
App St +7
Gonzaga +3.5
Kent St -3

ULLaf-3
MurraySt-4
 
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Posted: #49
bol bud i missed out tonight on playz just got home i will be cheering for you good luck
 
 
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Posted: #50
HEY BEAVER CHECK THIS OUT. I THINK YOU NEED TO DO THIS AT NIGHT. BECAUSE IF YOU DID IT LAST NIGHT KENT STATE WAS -2 WHEN IT OPENED AND WE WOULD OF WON THAT ONE. JUST AN IDEA
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