Vegas vs KenPom System Day IV

Question

YTD so far:All games7-7Only games from opening lines4-0Games from line movement3-7Looks like we will be changing the rules to only include games from opening lines, but I will continue to track both since 4 days is no where near a large enough sample size

beaverfan23 · Answer

YTD so far:All games7-7Only games from opening lines4-0Games from line movement3-7Looks like we will be changing the rules to only include games from opening lines, but I will continue to track both since 4 days is no where near a large enough sample size

beaverfan23 · Answer

System rules:If the line is between 0 and 4, a large difference is 2 points.4.5 to 12, a large difference is 3 points.12.5 to 16, a large difference is 4 points.16.5 and up, a large difference is 5 points.There is one exception to this rule:When&#xD;&#xA; Vegas and KenPom have different teams favored it is a no play.  KenPom &#xD;&#xA;seems to get more of these close ones right than Vegas.If there are any questions please see the original thread

beaverfan23 · Answer

There are 4 plays based on opening lines, however I will not make them official until the morning when Kenpom updates his website.

If his predictions on these four games do not change, the 4 plays are:
Northeastern +16
Kent St -3
Northwestern -4
Gonzaga +3.5 (I bet we get a better line on this one so don't lock it in just yet)

There are a few games that are close to being plays...these plays were not very successful tonight but I will continue to track them. I will list close plays in the morning

imkds615 · Answer

he has GM beating NE by 22 and vegas is -16....shouldnt GM be the play?

c12los · Answer

beaver, nice shit yesterday. thanks for the opening line picks. went 3-0. lets breakdown today.

Northeastern +16 - looks like the Xavier situation a couple days ago. your boy "midwestmagic" will be on George Mason, which I can see his logic.

Kent St. -3 - the public is on Kent St. just because of their good home record but Buffalo blew them boys out by 25pts a month ago. Something dont seem right here.

Northwestern -4 - same situation as Kent St. but the public is not on NW as much. Dont know about this one.

Gonzaga +3.5 - This one looks good. Public on St. Marys and I feel a little better about this one.

Let me know your thoughts. Thanks

Skipbone · Answer

[Quote: Originally Posted by c12los] beaver, nice shit yesterday.  thanks for the opening line picks. went 3-0.  lets breakdown today.  &#xD;&#xA;Northeastern &#x2B;16 - looks like the Xavier situation a couple days ago. your boy "midwestmagic"  will be on George Mason, which I can see his logic.&#xD;&#xA;Kent St. -3 - the public is on Kent St. just because of their good home record but Buffalo blew them boys out by 25pts a month ago. Something dont seem right here.  &#xD;&#xA;Northwestern -4 - same situation as Kent St. but the public is not on NW as much.  Dont know about this one.&#xD;&#xA;Gonzaga &#x2B;3.5 - This one looks good.  Public on St. Marys and I feel a little better about this one.&#xD;&#xA;&#xD;&#xA;Let me know your thoughts.  Thanks[/Quote]Uh,,,aren&#x27;t you the public?

c12los · Answer

no.  if i was then i would of lost the michigan game and providence game last nite.

crazycarlstud · Answer

&#xD;&#xA;I do believe you are correct and GM should be the play

crazycarlstud · Answer

[Quote: Originally Posted by crazycarlstud] &#xD;&#xA;&#xD;&#xA;I do believe you are correct and GM should be the play&#xD;&#xA;[/Quote]&#xD;&#xA;wait i take that back I think NE is the play

inthetank · Answer

GREAT WORK BEAVER!!...Love the logic and system....Keep up the good info.....

marco5581 · Answer

best of luck , but what are the actual plays?

JTMARLIN1 · Answer

IN CASE YOU DIDN&#x27;T SEE MY POST IN YOUR LAST THREAD THESE WERE THE OPENING LINE PICKSGEORGE MASON/NORTHEASTERNST. MARY&#x27;S/GONZAGAARKANSAS LITTLE ROCK/SOUTH ALABAMAPENN STATE/NORTHWESTERNNC GREENSBORO/GEORGIA SOUTHERN

JTMARLIN1 · Answer

ARKANSAS LITTLE ROCK KENPOM WIN BY 1 VEGAS &#x2B;2NORTHWESTERN WIN BY 2 ON KENPOM VEGAS -4NC GREENSBORO KENPOM WIN BY 2 VEGAS PICK EM

Hank55 · Answer

THE KENPOM LINE ON NORTHWESTERN IS NOW 3 POINTS........IT WAS CHANGED AFTER THE DAILY UPDATE.......THERE WERE ADDITIONAL CHANGES

ARIZONA IS NOW 1 POINT
SANTA CLARA IS NOW 9 POINTS
CHARLESTON IS NOW 10 POINTS
GREENSBORO IS NOW 1 POINT

GOOD LUCK

PremierEdge · Answer

When Vegas and Kenpom disagree, we side with Vegas and the play would be NE &#x2B;16

JTMARLIN1 · Answer

I AM INTERESTED TO SEE WHAT HAPPENS IN THIS GAME BECAUSE PEOPLE HAVE TOLD ME THAT GEORGE MASON CAN WIN THIS GAME BY 30

chu_lu · Answer

BOL luck today Beaverfan

2Team_Parlay · Answer

Beaverfan23

beaverfan23 · Answer

Sorry guys I got a late start today.As hank pointed out, a few kenpom lines have moved making northwestern a non-play and making appalachian state a play.So the official opening line plays are:Northeastern &#x2B;16Kent St -3Gonzaga &#x2B;3.5 (You can get it at &#x2B;4 at most places but we will do 3.5 for tracking purposes)App St &#x2B;7I will begin tracking almost plays now

beaverfan23 · Answer

Remember that the 2 point difference can not cross over zero.  In other words, if Vegas and Kenpom have different teams favored to win, it is NOT a play.

Nitro · Answer

Old Dome a pk over James Madison? J.M sucks! Old Dome needs to win this road game badly. Any thougths here..

DrunkenCapper · Answer

I like them all but Northeastern

beaverfan23 · Answer

We will take................if it moves from....................to
E.Kentucky.............................-3.5.............................-4
Marquette...............................+5................................+4
WisMil....................................+8.5.............................+8
ODU.......................................-2.5..............................-3
MurraySt.................................-3.5..............................-4
UCDavis................................+3.5.............................+3
SacSt......................................+7................................+6
E.Wash..................................-3..................................-4
PortlandSt.............................+6.................................+5
Nevada..................................-5.5...............................-6

Vegas vs KenPom System Day IV

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