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Vegas vs Kenpom System Week IV

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Posted: #1
The basis is simple.  If there is a "large" difference between the opening line and the fanmatch line on kenpom.com, I will side with Vegas.

System rules:

If the opening line is between 0 and 4, a large difference is 2.5
4.5 to 8, a large difference is 3 points.
8.5 to 12, a large difference is 3.5 points.
12.5 to 15.5, a large difference is 4 points.
16 and up, a large difference is 5 points.

Three notes:

I will not be wagering on the Dogs that have over 50% of the bets according to covers contests.

I will not be wagering on the Favorites that have over 60% of the bets according to covers contests.

All plays will be 1st halfs
 
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Posted: #2
YTD Record

For the night: 0-0 (-%)

For the week: 0-0 (-%)

For the year: 33-30-1 (52.4%)


In depth stats:

Home Teams: 12-10-1 (54.5%)
Road Teams: 16-11 (59.3%)

Favorites: 8-15-1 (34.8%)
Dogs:     25-15 (62.5%)

Line moved toward KP:  20-16-1 (55.6%)
Line moved away KP:  12-11 (52.2%)

Full Game Record 32-31-1 (50.8%)
 
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Posted: #3
The first post should have these rules:


If the line is between 0 and 4, a large difference is 2 points.
4.5 to 12, a large difference is 3 points.
12.5 to 16, a large difference is 4 points.
16.5 and up, a large difference is 5 points.
 
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Posted: #4
Official Tuesday Plays:

Elon -6 (HFT)  Win
S.Bama -2 (HFT) Loss
 
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Posted: #5
YTD Record

For the night: 1-1 (50%)

For the week: 1-1 (50%)

For the year: 34-31-1 (52.3%)


In depth stats:

Home Teams: 13-11-1 (54.2%)
Road Teams: 16-11 (59.3%)

Favorites: 9-16-1 (36%)
Dogs:     25-15 (62.5%)

Line moved toward KP:  21-17-1 (55.3%)
Line moved away KP:  12-11 (52.2%)

Full Game Record 33-32-1 (50.8%)
 
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Posted: #6
10 potential plays today (haven't checked public %)

Memphis
Temple
Florida St
Marshall
Morehead St
La Salle
Detroit
UC Davis
Northern Illinois
UMKC
 
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Posted: #7
Official Wednesday Plays


7:00
Morehead St (HDT)  +1.5
Detroit (HFT) waiting on line
FSU (HDT) +3
7:30
Marshall (NDT) +2.5 -105
8:00
UMKC (RDA) +2 -115
8:30
Utah (HDA) +3 -115
9:00
Temple (RFA) -1.5
LaSalle (NFT) -5.5 (-115)
10:00
UC Davis (HFA) -2 -105

 
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Posted: #8

 

Thanks for posting this! Im new and have found it tuff to find information that makes sence.

Quote Originally Posted by beaverfan23:

The basis is simple.  If there is a "large" difference between the opening line and the fanmatch line on kenpom.com, I will side with Vegas.

System rules:

If the opening line is between 0 and 4, a large difference is 2.5
4.5 to 8, a large difference is 3 points.
8.5 to 12, a large difference is 3.5 points.
12.5 to 15.5, a large difference is 4 points.
16 and up, a large difference is 5 points.

Three notes:

I will not be wagering on the Dogs that have over 50% of the bets according to covers contests.

I will not be wagering on the Favorites that have over 60% of the bets according to covers contests.

All plays will be 1st halfs

 
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Posts: 489
Posted: #9
Quote Originally Posted by beaverfan23:

Official Wednesday Plays


7:00
Morehead St (HDT)  +1.5
Detroit (HFT) waiting on line
FSU (HDT) +3
7:30
Marshall (NDT) +2.5 -105
8:00
UMKC (RDA) +2 -115
8:30
Utah (HDA) +3 -115
9:00
Temple (RFA) -1.5
LaSalle (NFT) -5.5 (-115)
10:00
UC Davis (HFA) -2 -105

     i signed up for kempom there no explaintion on how to read his stuff on fan match and what teams to bet   you are going against him on line moves any insite would be helpfull  ty
 
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Posted: #10
rockfordrounder,

Looks like you've made your way around a few poker tables.  Thats alot of chips!
 
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Posted: #11
Quote Originally Posted by jay1234:

     i signed up for kempom there no explaintion on how to read his stuff on fan match and what teams to bet   you are going against him on line moves any insite would be helpfull  ty


Kenpoms information is seemingly endless and very helpful...just look through his site for a while and you will figure things out.

As for this system, it is based on the theory that humans can pick winners better than computers because of emotion, injuries, etc. With that being said, we side with the humans who make the opening lines instead of Kenpoms system whenever there is a large difference between the two.
 
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Posted: #12
Bad Beats are hot tonight...

La Salle scores 2 points in the last 5:48 to miss the cover by a layup with four seconds left.

Marshall doesn't score the last 4 minutes of the half and gives up a 12-1 run to end the half
 
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Posted: #13
2-6 with UC Davis left to go...DONT chase
 
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Posted: #14
Noticing a trend...maybe we need to do dogs 1H and favorites Full Game.  Anybody want to back track? :)
 
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Posted: #15
Looking like TennTech and URI
 
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Posted: #16
Tenn Tech is the only play I see. The URI line must have changed on Kenpom. Providence's leading scorer is a gametime decision so I wouldn't want to touch that one.
 
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Posted: #17
Good Luck Tonight.....
 
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Posted: #18
i see your still plugging away buddy   gl this season
 
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Posted: #19
Quote Originally Posted by beaverfan23:

Noticing a trend...maybe we need to do dogs 1H and favorites Full Game.  Anybody want to back track? :)

Beaver, I followed this system devoutly last year.  I noticed that the dogs, especially the big dogs (double digit) performed very well in the 1st half, only to get blown out in the 2nd half.  Towsen St was notorious for this. 

I started playing the bigger dogs (8+) 1st half only, and had much success with it.  

So far this year, I've been playing faves and short dogs for the whole game and bigger dogs for 1st half.  I haven't kept my figures, but I've been winning no doubt.  
 
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Posted: #20
No plays tonight. Like flyer said, the Rhode Island line moved on Kenpom. 

Tenn tech is over 50%

No plays on Thursday!
 
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Posted: #21
Official Friday Play

Wis-Mil -7 (HFA)

 
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Posted: #22
Official Saturday Plays

(1st Halves)

NC State
Mid Tenn St
UCLA
Marquette
Northern Iowa
Northwestern
UC Irvine
Iona
USC

 
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Posted: #23
UCLA/MARQUETTE/UC IRVINE
 
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Posted: #24
Good Luck Today....
 
 
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Posted: #25
Hot start, then lost the last 4.  Finished 4-5 on saturday.  No plays on Sunday
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