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Vegas vs Kenpom Week 7

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YTD Record

For the night: 1-2 (33%)

For the week: 19-22 (46%)

For the year: 116-98 (54%)


In depth stats:

Home Teams: 51-50 (50%)
Road Teams: 46-32 (59%)

Favorites: 53-50 (51%)
Dogs:      63-48 (57%)

Line moved toward KP:  81-79 (51%)
Line moved away KP:  31-10 (76%)

Moday plays coming
 
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Posted: #2
Official Monday Plays:

Wofford +5.5 (Road, Dog, Toward)
Tennessee -13 (Home, Fave, Toward)
Rider +11 (Road, Dog, Toward)
St Peters +1.5 (Road, Dog, Toward)
Idaho St +9 (Road, Dog, None)
UCSB +2 (Road, Dog, None)
CS North +5.5 (Road, Dog, Toward)

 
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Posted: #4
Beaverfan23,

Do you think Idaho+9 is a system away play?

Kenpom said NC willl won by 15, 80-65,
Vegas openned it as 10 point,
and now it's going up to 9.

Thanks for ur reply.
 
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Posted: #5
The line opened at Idaho St. +9 and moved up to +9.5 so that is towards the +15 that KP has.
 
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Posted: #6
Quote Originally Posted by beaverfan23:

Official Monday Plays:

Wofford +5.5 (Road, Dog, Toward)
Tennessee -13 (Home, Fave, Toward)
Rider +11 (Road, Dog, Toward)
St Peters +1.5 (Road, Dog, Toward)
Idaho St +9 (Road, Dog, None)
UCSB +2 (Road, Dog, None)
CS North +5.5 (Road, Dog, Toward)

  Ok, I understand one half of what your saying from last week post, now let's take the Wofford/Wake Forest Game, why are you making Wofford the play instead of Wake Forest?
 
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Quote Originally Posted by flyerlax06:

The line opened at Idaho St. +9 and moved up to +9.5 so that is towards the +15 that KP has.
  Ok flyerlax06, if beaver doesn't hit back in time maybe you can explain to me my example with my post above.
 
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Posted: #8
Quote Originally Posted by jaybosstein:

  Ok flyerlax06, if beaver doesn't hit back in time maybe you can explain to me my example with my post above.

The line opened at Wake -4 and KP had Wake -7 so the system's theory is that Vegas knows something that KP's stats don't. If a favorite opens lower than KP by a big enough difference as defined by the system (in this case it only needed a difference of 2 but had a difference of 3) then you take the dog. On the other side, if it had opened at -7 and KP had -4, the play would be Wake since Vegas thinks Wake is better than their pure stats by a big enough difference to play. Hope this helps.
 
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Posted: #9
Quote Originally Posted by flyerlax06:


The line opened at Wake -4 and KP had Wake -7 so the system's theory is that Vegas knows something that KP's stats don't. If a favorite opens lower than KP by a big enough difference as defined by the system (in this case it only needed a difference of 2 but had a difference of 3) then you take the dog. On the other side, if it had opened at -7 and KP had -4, the play would be Wake since Vegas thinks Wake is better than their pure stats by a big enough difference to play. Hope this helps.
OK, thank you sir
 
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Posted: #10
Quote Originally Posted by beaverfan23:

Official Monday Plays:

Wofford +5.5 (Road, Dog, Toward) 
Tennessee -13 (Home, Fave, Toward) 
Rider +11 (Road, Dog, Toward) 
St Peters +1.5 (Road, Dog, Toward) 
Idaho St +9 (Road, Dog, None)
UCSB +2 (Road, Dog, None)
CS North +5.5 (Road, Dog, Toward)


So far through the early games: 2-1-1
 
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Posted: #11

This is what I'm seeing tomorrow.

WMU (confusing cause it opened up atleast on vegas insider -2.5) but they are +1.5 on dimes now, so I ll let beaver figure that out)

Mich State +5 1/2 (Away, dog, toward)

Maryland -9 (Home, fav, away)

 
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Posted: #12
Quote Originally Posted by beaverfan23:

Official Monday Plays:

Wofford +5.5 (Road, Dog, Toward) 
Tennessee -13 (Home, Fave, Toward) 
Rider +11 (Road, Dog, Toward) 
St Peters +1.5 (Road, Dog, Toward) 
Idaho St +9 (Road, Dog, None) 
UCSB +2 (Road, Dog, None) 
CS North +5.5 (Road, Dog, Toward) 


5-1-1 +4 units on the night
 
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Posted: #13
Quote Originally Posted by flyerlax06:


5-1-1 +4 units on the night

The plays maybe on the dogs and the away movement. Thanks for the update Flyer

 
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Posted: #14
Here's what I see for tomorrow:

Uconn -2 (Road, Fave, No Move) currently at 64% so have to watch that one
Mich St. +5.5 (Road, Dog, Toward)
Oakland +3 (Home, Dog, Toward)
Western Mich +1.5 (Home, Dog, Toward)
IUPU Ft Wayne -3.5 (Home, Fave, Toward)
 
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Posted: #15
Quote Originally Posted by stiffler1705:

This is what I'm seeing tomorrow.

WMU (confusing cause it opened up atleast on vegas insider -2.5) but they are +1.5 on dimes now, so I ll let beaver figure that out)

Mich State +5 1/2 (Away, dog, toward)

Maryland -9 (Home, fav, away)


The opening line for Cornell @ Maryland was Maryland -6 with KP at Maryland -5 so there wasn't enough of a difference for it to be a system play. The line has moved all the way to Maryland -9 as of now so it could be worth looking at since it moved away from KP and all other books opened well above the -6 but it is not a system play with our current guidelines.
 
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Posted: #16
This is probably a dumb question but I understand your system and where to get opening lines but where do I find the KP lines? Thanks in advance.
 
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Posted: #17
kenpom.com

He requires a $19.95/year subscription
 
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Posted: #18
Stiff and Flyer, i see you guys are putting allot of work into this as is Beaver. I had a thought to throw past you, i am going to try and keep some record of the difference in spreads of the system plays and see if we can see any variables with larger spread differences.  
Example, a 6 pt vegas line vs a 9pt kenpom or a 6pt vegas line vs a 12point kenpom line... 
Anyhow, i bring this up 2 see if you guys can keep an eye on that stuff 2. 
Beaver does enough work already doing this everyday.
 
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Posted: #19
I agree. I noticed that it seems some of the bigger spreads have not been hitting as high as the lower ones. Let's use a numbering system to describe the different spread levels. Here's what I'm thinking:

Level 1: 0 and 4, a large difference is 2 points.
Level 2: 4.5 to 12, a large difference is 3 points.
Level 3: 12.5 to 16, a large difference is 4 points.
Level 4: 16.5 and up, a large difference is 5 points.

My guess would be that if we looked back at previous plays, the hit rate on level 4 plays is the lowest.

 
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Posted: #20
One last question can you tell me the point spread and values you use again such as 0-5 -2 5-10 -3 etc.
 
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Posted: #21
Never mind I see in post above thanks
 
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Posted: #22
Level 2 is a wide range
 
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Posted: #23

I only looked at your thread for the final three plays last night, all road dog ML outright winnners.  2 of which I bet for nice profits.  Are you hitting alot of those with this system?  Is anyone tracking how many dog ML winners you are getting?

Make today great!
 
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Posted: #24
[Quote: Originally Posted by MakinBacon]

 Is anyone tracking how many dog ML winners you are getting?/Quote]


Sounds like you have a great New Years project!

 
 
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Posted: #25
ID LIKE TO SUGGEST TO BEAVER IF HE ADDED 6 POINTS TO SYSTEM PICKS HOW THEY WOULD FAIR OUT LONG TERM PERCENTAGE WINS/LOSS  FOR INSTANCE TODAY ADD 6 POINTS TO MARYLAND/UCONN/OAKLAND I FIRMLY BELEIVE THAT THE LOSS PERCENTAGES WILL DRAMATICLY REDUCE AND POSSIBLY GIVE BEAVERS SYSTEM THAT WINNING EDGE THIS WOULD BE INTRESTING TO SEE BY ADJUSTING SLIGHTLY TO ENHANCE HIS SYSTEM LONG TERM WHAT THE RESULTS ARE. MAYBE IT COULD EVEN BE BACK TESTED TO SEE WHAT THE WIN/LOSS PERCENTAGES WOULD BE  AND AS ALWAYS THANK YOU VERY MUCH BEAVER FOR YOUR DEDICATION IN HELPING ALL OF US THAT FOLLOW YOUR SYSTEM
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