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Vegas vs Kenpom Week 7

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Posted: #26
Quote Originally Posted by flyerlax06:


The opening line for Cornell @ Maryland was Maryland -6 with KP at Maryland -5 so there wasn't enough of a difference for it to be a system play. The line has moved all the way to Maryland -9 as of now so it could be worth looking at since it moved away from KP and all other books opened well above the -6 but it is not a system play with our current guidelines.

 

Thanks Flyer, my opening line page must have been wrong. Thanks for the correction.

 
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Posted: #27
Quote Originally Posted by poolman11:

ID LIKE TO SUGGEST TO BEAVER IF HE ADDED 6 POINTS TO SYSTEM PICKS HOW THEY WOULD FAIR OUT LONG TERM PERCENTAGE WINS/LOSS  FOR INSTANCE TODAY ADD 6 POINTS TO MARYLAND/UCONN/OAKLAND I FIRMLY BELEIVE THAT THE LOSS PERCENTAGES WILL DRAMATICLY REDUCE AND POSSIBLY GIVE BEAVERS SYSTEM THAT WINNING EDGE THIS WOULD BE INTRESTING TO SEE BY ADJUSTING SLIGHTLY TO ENHANCE HIS SYSTEM LONG TERM WHAT THE RESULTS ARE. MAYBE IT COULD EVEN BE BACK TESTED TO SEE WHAT THE WIN/LOSS PERCENTAGES WOULD BE  AND AS ALWAYS THANK YOU VERY MUCH BEAVER FOR YOUR DEDICATION IN HELPING ALL OF US THAT FOLLOW YOUR SYSTEM

Are you suggesting tease all system plays by 6 points?
 
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Posted: #28
Here's what I see right now for today:

UConn -2 (Road, Fave, Away, Level 1) 
Mich St +5.5 (Road, Dog, Toward, Level 2)
Oakland +3 (Home, Dog, Toward, Level 1)
Western Mich +1.5 (Road, Fave, Toward, Level 1)
IUPU Ft Wayne -3.5 (Home, Fave, Toward, Level 1)

 
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Posted: #29
Quote Originally Posted by stiffler1705:

This is what I'm seeing tomorrow.

WMU (confusing cause it opened up atleast on vegas insider -2.5) but they are +1.5 on dimes now, so I ll let beaver figure that out)

Mich State +5 1/2 (Away, dog, toward)

Maryland -9 (Home, fav, away)


maryland is -7.5 now? so is this good or bad?
 
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Posted: #30
Quote Originally Posted by poolman11:

ID LIKE TO SUGGEST TO BEAVER IF HE ADDED 6 POINTS TO SYSTEM PICKS HOW THEY WOULD FAIR OUT LONG TERM PERCENTAGE WINS/LOSS  FOR INSTANCE TODAY ADD 6 POINTS TO MARYLAND/UCONN/OAKLAND I FIRMLY BELEIVE THAT THE LOSS PERCENTAGES WILL DRAMATICLY REDUCE AND POSSIBLY GIVE BEAVERS SYSTEM THAT WINNING EDGE THIS WOULD BE INTRESTING TO SEE BY ADJUSTING SLIGHTLY TO ENHANCE HIS SYSTEM LONG TERM WHAT THE RESULTS ARE. MAYBE IT COULD EVEN BE BACK TESTED TO SEE WHAT THE WIN/LOSS PERCENTAGES WOULD BE  AND AS ALWAYS THANK YOU VERY MUCH BEAVER FOR YOUR DEDICATION IN HELPING ALL OF US THAT FOLLOW YOUR SYSTEM


Poolman,

what exactly do you mean by "add 6 points" please clarify
 
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Posted: #31
Quote Originally Posted by flyerlax06:

I agree. I noticed that it seems some of the bigger spreads have not been hitting as high as the lower ones. Let's use a numbering system to describe the different spread levels. Here's what I'm thinking:

Level 1: 0 and 4, a large difference is 2 points.
Level 2: 4.5 to 12, a large difference is 3 points.
Level 3: 12.5 to 16, a large difference is 4 points.
Level 4: 16.5 and up, a large difference is 5 points.

My guess would be that if we looked back at previous plays, the hit rate on level 4 plays is the lowest.



Good idea.  Mega, is this what you meant and are tracking right now?  This would be great information to have
 
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Posted: #32

beaver on sports books they give gamblers a optiom called a 6 point teaser with 2 teams involved for instance your 2 home team system picks today oakland and maryland use your system picks as a real wager called a 6 point teaser the betting line you would be getting then is

oakland +8.5

maryland -2   or if  uconn +3    i kinda think if you select your highest percentage system picks and utilize the option availasble to enhance these system picks with the additional( 6 points teaser) and see if this wont create a higher winning to your already profitable system

 
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Posted: #33
or if you wanna back track your higer percentage system picks and see if there was an additional 6 points added to your picks if that woulda made a loss by a hook or 1 or 2 or 3 or 4 or 5 points turn into a winner just a suggestion
 
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Posted: #34
Interesting idea.  I actually think a "pleaser" would be profitable.  Usually when these games win they win by alot, just look at last night with all the dogs winning outright.
 
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Posted: #35

Troe posted the lines from betonline already. So I went through tomorrows games already while baby was taking a little nap. I ll post them later.....8 plays I think

 
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Posted: #36
What are your plays tonight Sir? I really enjoy reading your thread and wish you all the best in your efforts!
 
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Posted: #37
Quote Originally Posted by upup:


maryland is -7.5 now? so is this good or bad?

Maryland opened at -6 at Bet Online, so it's a no play
 
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Posted: #38
Quote Originally Posted by poolman11:

beaver on sports books they give gamblers a optiom called a 6 point teaser with 2 teams involved for instance your 2 home team system picks today oakland and maryland use your system picks as a real wager called a 6 point teaser the betting line you would be getting then is

oakland +8.5

maryland -2   or if  uconn +3    i kinda think if you select your highest percentage system picks and utilize the option availasble to enhance these system picks with the additional( 6 points teaser) and see if this wont create a higher winning to your already profitable system


Poolman, that's a decent idea, but how are you going to decide which plays to tease?  Most nights there are 8 or 9 teams.  That could really backfire. 
 
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Posted: #39
Official Tuesday Plays:

W.Mich +2.5 (Home, Fave, Toward)
Uconn -2.5 (Road, Fave, Away) 2.5 units
MSU +6.5 (Road, Dog, Toward)
IUPU FW -5 (Home, Fave, None)
Oakland +3 (Home, Dog, Toward)

 
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Posted: #40
Guys,  how can we further investigate these away plays?  That is where the value is at.  

ps.  Beaver, you're onto something with the no play above 65% thing.  However I think it needs tweaked.  I noticed the Home/Fave/Away games that are even above 60%, lose more than they win.  In essance, our theory is saying that vegas is going out on a limb for whatever reason.  If a game has even over 60%, how on a limb did they really go?  Just some ideas

your thoughts?
 
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Posted: #41
Quote Originally Posted by MakinBacon:

I only looked at your thread for the final three plays last night, all road dog ML outright winnners.  2 of which I bet for nice profits.  Are you hitting alot of those with this system?  Is anyone tracking how many dog ML winners you are getting?



Yes I have hit quite a few.  It would be great to know the underdog straight up record and +/- units.  Maybe something to look at next year, unless someone has a ton of free time on their hands and wants to go back and figure it out
 
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Posted: #42
Quote Originally Posted by beaverfan23:

Interesting idea.  I actually think a "pleaser" would be profitable.  Usually when these games win they win by alot, just look at last night with all the dogs winning outright.


This would be it. The teaser option is not good wagering value. You'd be taking an already strong bet, stringing a few together and then adding more juice.

The pleaser OTOH would be an interesting one to do on Road, Away Dog bets.
 
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Posted: #43
Quote Originally Posted by sharpmoney75:

Guys,  how can we further investigate these away plays?  That is where the value is at.  

ps.  Beaver, you're onto something with the no play above 65% thing.  However I think it needs tweaked.  I noticed the Home/Fave/Away games that are even above 60%, lose more than they win.  In essance, our theory is saying that vegas is going out on a limb for whatever reason.  If a game has even over 60%, how on a limb did they really go?  Just some ideas

your thoughts?


65% could definitely be too high.  If it were 60% then Uconn wouldn't be a play tonight.  I am a bit nervous about that one since they have that stupid (#8) next to their name.  I don't know what the right percentage should be, I just made a guess with the 65%, if someone could figure out the record of teams that had between 60 and 65% covers contest picks that would be great!

There have been many great tweaking ideas over the last few days, but all of them would require alot of backtracking and time.  Time which I do not have.  If anyone can show me hard statistical evidence to make some of these changes, I will be on board in a heart-beat!
 
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Posted: #44
YTD Record

For the night: 5-1 (83%)

For the week: 5-1 (83%)

For the year: 121-99 (55%)


In depth stats:

Home Teams: 51-50 (50%)
Road Teams: 51-33 (61%)

Favorites: 53-50 (51%)
Dogs:      68-49 (58%)

Line moved toward KP:  85-80 (52%)
Line moved away KP:  31-10 (76%)
 
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Posted: #45
Quote Originally Posted by beaverfan23:



65% could definitely be too high.  If it were 60% then Uconn wouldn't be a play tonight.  I am a bit nervous about that one since they have that stupid (#8) next to their name.  I don't know what the right percentage should be, I just made a guess with the 65%, if someone could figure out the record of teams that had between 60 and 65% covers contest picks that would be great!



If you kept a spreadsheet of all your picks, or even just a master list, I'd do this for you.
 
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Posted: #46
It will take some time to compile it but, I'll try to get to it
 
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Posted: #47
Quote Originally Posted by beaverfan23:

YTD Record

For the night: 1-2 (33%)

For the week: 19-22 (46%)

For the year: 116-98 (54%)


In depth stats:

Home Teams: 51-50 (50%)
Road Teams: 46-32 (59%)

Favorites: 53-50 (51%)
Dogs:      63-48 (57%)

Line moved toward KP:  81-79 (51%)
Line moved away KP:  31-10 (76%)

Moday plays coming


Good work, I cashed in big Monday night.  But watching tonight's games in action, try this:  break down the Road Dogs and Home Favs.  What do the numbers look like if you only bet on games where those are indicated by the system?
 
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Posted: #48
II don't know what you are doing or how it works but MSU is another Road Dog ML winner at +240. Nice job!
Make today great!
 
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Posted: #49
I saw Uconn @ 66% earlier today. Should have been thrown out. I know it does no good now but I haven't been at a computer till now. Just mentioning that I saw it >65%
 
 
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Posted: #50
Ty for input Beaver. I have not yet fully devoted myself to this data but i will this week. Lets say that you each day you produce your normal criteria for data and then Flyer and I can work on adjustments.

Flyer, as per your level break down how do you account for the large gap in level 2?
I think Beaver is spot on with 2pts beind a large difference in a 4pt margin, 2 points would account for 50% or better of the total line.
So if that is the case then i think level 2 should prob b in the 5-8, or 5-9 range, 
However, i am not sure if we need to fully deviate from beavers guidlins at this point. All i think we need to do is look at the % difference in spreads from the games Beaver picks and see if we see any nice data with the a larger or smaller deviation. 
As always. let me know ur thoughts.
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