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Vegas vs Kenpom Week 7

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Posted: #176
11AM
Tenn +8 (Home, Dog, None)
12PM
WV -2 (Home, Fave, Away)
2PM
OK +7 (Home, Dog, Toward)
Utah +14.5 (Home, Dog, Away)
Ball St -6.5 (Home, Fave, Toward)
Ft Wayne +1 (Home, Fave, Toward)
3PM
Iowa +11.5 (Home, Dog, None)
4PM
Will and Mary +3.5 (Home, Dog, Toward)
S.Miss -1 (Road, Fave, None)
5PM
UCF -1 (Road, Dog, Away)
6PM
SanFran +15.5 (Road, Dog, Away)
Prov +3 (Home, Dog, Toward)
UL-Laf +11 (Road, Dog, Toward)
7PM
Miami OH +2.5 (Home, Dog, Away)
URI +3.5 (Home, Dog, Toward)
Citadel -1 (Home, Fave, None)
UL-Mon +8 (Road, Dog, Away)
8PM
AusPeay +5.5 (Home, Dog, Away)
Rice +3.5 (Home, Dog, Toward)
Drake +2 (Home, Dog, None)
9PM
Miss St -1 (Road, Fave, Toward)
10PM
UC Davis +3.5 (Home, Dog, Toward)
CSFul +7 (Road, Dog, None)
CS North +14.5 (Home, Dog, Toward)
Sac St +1.5 (Home, Dog, Toward)
UCLA -11.5 (Home, Fave, None)
 
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Posted: #177
 
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Posted: #178
How do we go about this? Cant be every game can we???
 
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Posted: #179
Good stuff beaver. Thanks bro. A large card.
 
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Posted: #180
my book says 80% on UCF
 
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Posted: #181
Megatron.your right, it's tough to have that much action. I've been playing, road dogs and pressing up on the "away" moves!!!
 
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Posted: #182
Quote Originally Posted by Megatron27:

How do we go about this? Cant be every game can we???


I think I am going to.  I broke them up by time so that I can just put in a few bets at a time...if it starts to get ugly I can stop at any time, but they are all plays so I would like to play them all.  I would recommend at least playing the "away movement" plays.
 
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Posted: #183
I did a crazy 15 team 10.5 pt teaser and then also bet on all 20+ games individually. Let's make some $$$ today boys. 
 
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Posted: #184
I bet them all individually, as they hit early, I will probably come back with some late teasers.
 
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Posted: #185
Well i certainly would bet all AWAY games.. its the other games i have ?s about. I dont know  enough about ncab to do accurate capping on my own (like Nropp).  Anyhow, good luck to all.
And beaver, double check miami o, i am not sure on that one. 
 
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Posted: #186
I know someone asked this earlier about which line to use to determine the level. I always use Vegas. So for the Miami oh game, kp has them +5 and Vegas opened with +3. For me that's a level 1 play and so the 2 pt difference makes it a play. Not sure if that's what beaver does but just wanted to let you know what I do. 
 
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Posted: #187
beaverfan what is your strong play today ?
 
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Posted: #188
Sooners kicked my ass today
 
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Posted: #189
I doubt he has a strongest play based on system. Just. All the plays that fall within the numbers
 
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Posted: #190
Candy, u are right.. while beaver might have a favorite play by the system its all the same.
Flyer, using the Vegas line as our barometer for picking levels def makes the most sense. 

Lets Go UCF/SF/Aust Pey
 
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Posted: #191
Quote Originally Posted by flyerlax06:

I know someone asked this earlier about which line to use to determine the level. I always use Vegas. So for the Miami oh game, kp has them +5 and Vegas opened with +3. For me that's a level 1 play and so the 2 pt difference makes it a play. Not sure if that's what beaver does but just wanted to let you know what I do. 


YEP. that how I have been doing it
 
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Posted: #192
Quote Originally Posted by justatee:

beaverfan what is your strong play today ?


Your avatar
 
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Posted: #193
Is thread or post someone can point to better understand this system?  Sorry if this has been asked already.
 
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Posted: #194
11AM
Tenn +8 (Home, Dog, None)  W
12PM
WV -2 (Home, Fave, Away)  W
2PM
OK +7 (Home, Dog, Toward)  L
Utah +14.5 (Home, Dog, Away)  W
Ball St -6.5 (Home, Fave, Toward)  W
Ft Wayne +1 (Home, Fave, Toward)  L
3PM
Iowa +11.5 (Home, Dog, None)  L
4PM
Will and Mary +3.5 (Home, Dog, Toward)  L
S.Miss -1 (Road, Fave, None)  W

5-4 so far today, 2-0 on the away plays


5PM
UCF -1 (Road, Dog, Away)  up DD with 6 min left
6PM
SanFran +15.5 (Road, Dog, Away)
Prov +3 (Home, Dog, Toward)
UL-Laf +11 (Road, Dog, Toward)
7PM
Miami OH +2.5 (Home, Dog, Away)
URI +3.5 (Home, Dog, Toward)
Citadel -1 (Home, Fave, None)
UL-Mon +8 (Road, Dog, Away)
8PM
AusPeay +5.5 (Home, Dog, Away)
Rice +3.5 (Home, Dog, Toward)
Drake +2 (Home, Dog, None)
9PM
Miss St -1 (Road, Fave, Toward)
10PM
UC Davis +3.5 (Home, Dog, Toward)
CSFul +7 (Road, Dog, None)
CS North +14.5 (Home, Dog, Toward)
Sac St +1.5 (Home, Dog, Toward)
UCLA -11.5 (Home, Fave, None)
 
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Posted: #195
Quote Originally Posted by ScarletKnight08:

Is thread or post someone can point to better understand this system?  Sorry if this has been asked already.


Whats your question mate?

The system compares kenpoms projections to the vegas opening lines, if there is a major difference, we side with vegas....simple as that.


A quote from Ken Pomeroy's blog

"It’s also why a point spread will be more accurate than a ratings system over time. (You can track that phenomena for college hoops on this page.) The power of my computer is overwhelmed by the knowledge of thousands of people incorporating their own information collectively. Don’t get me wrong, I’m still proud of my computer. It provides a great estimate of team strength in most cases. But it’s a cold, unfeeling machine, incapable of incorporating emotional factors, injuries, and other unexpected circumstances that occur on a daily basis. (Although, when injuries do occur, you can get some excellent insight on how much that injury affects a team by comparing the difference between the point spread of an upcoming game and my prediction for it.)"

This perfectly explains why the Vegas vs KP system is working and will continue to work.



 
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Posted: #196
Quote Originally Posted by beaverfan23:



Whats your question mate?

The system compares kenpoms projections to the vegas opening lines, if there is a major difference, we side with vegas....simple as that.


A quote from Ken Pomeroy's blog

"It’s also why a point spread will be more accurate than a ratings system over time. (You can track that phenomena for college hoops on this page.) The power of my computer is overwhelmed by the knowledge of thousands of people incorporating their own information collectively. Don’t get me wrong, I’m still proud of my computer. It provides a great estimate of team strength in most cases. But it’s a cold, unfeeling machine, incapable of incorporating emotional factors, injuries, and other unexpected circumstances that occur on a daily basis. (Although, when injuries do occur, you can get some excellent insight on how much that injury affects a team by comparing the difference between the point spread of an upcoming game and my prediction for it.)"

This perfectly explains why the Vegas vs KP system is working and will continue to work.





Thx
 
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Posted: #197
Keep your eyes open as CSU northridge and CS Fullerton may both become (away) plays.  Key books are starting to move away from kenpom.   When you guys say "vegas" do you mean the vegas books in the matchup section on covers?
 
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Posted: #198
This is what I've got for Sunday...hopefully I can save some of you a little work as it's a light day, relatively speaking


1/8/2012

Michigan +1  KP +7  (6)
Penn St +7  KP +11 (4)
Fairfield pk  KP +3  (3)
U Mass +5.5  KP +9 (3.5)
Oregon +1  KP +5  (4)
Maryland +10  KP +15 (5)




 
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Posted: #199
Quote Originally Posted by fademenow77:

Keep your eyes open as CSU northridge and CS Fullerton may both become (away) plays.  Key books are starting to move away from kenpom.   When you guys say "vegas" do you mean the vegas books in the matchup section on covers?

No. Its just whatever book opens first. It's usually an offshore book such as Betonline 
 
 
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Posted: #200
Not a great day with the huge card. Here's what I see for tomorrow:

Oregon +1 (Home, Dog, Away, Level 1)
Michigan +1 (Home, Dog, Away, Level 1)
Southern California +3 (Home, Dog, Toward, Level 1)
Fairfield +1 (Road, Dog, Toward, Level 1)
Massachusetts +5 (Road, Dog, Toward, Level 1)
Penn St. +6.5 (Home, Dog, Toward, Level 2)
Maryland +10 (Road, Dog, Away, Level 2)
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