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Prospect
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Posted: #51
Pick a home team with the teaser?  How about LaSalle -1.5 over GW? I don't know if GW can upset LaSalle on the road.  I like so many games I might have to play 2 teasers and mix and match and hope at least one hits lol.

Surprised no one asked about Temple vs Charlotte yet. 
 
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Posted: #52
Quote Originally Posted by CBB2304:

Nropp MIssouri state vs ILL ST Thoughts?

I see ill st by 5-8 pts if bryant allan plays especially at home, but dont no much bout missouri st?

Illinois State's defense has been:

HORRIFIC

as of late.

Allen's been a nice addition since the semester, but I also think it's sort of the reason they've sucked. His style is what they need, but it doesn't mesh with the rest of the offense. A ton of questions here in this game, and that's personnel.

Probably consider the Redbirds of Allen doesn't go. Probably doesn't make sense to the majority, but....that's my line of thinking.

GL
 
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Posted: #53
Pitt allowed Cards to shoot 70% from field in 2nd half - with Woodall in lineup.  .The loss of Woodall hurt them more on the offensive side when they moved Gibbs to point  - they then moved Gibbs back to wing and used a frosh at PG vs Syr.which helped them vs Syr zone.

To beat a zone, you need some perimter shooters and when your best shooter (Gibbs) couldnt hit water from inside a boat, then teams will continue to zone you.  I live in Pgh - saw too much bad basketball here in last month.  If they cover the 9.5, I will be happy as a Pitt fan but I wouldnt be surprised at a Pitt win but a much closer game than the spread.
 
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Posted: #54
Great read
 
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Posted: #55
Quote Originally Posted by Hendog:

Since your the only person I respect in here what do you think about my card tonight?

Delaware +7.5 (2.2u to win 2u)
Delaware money line +285 (1u to win 2.85u)
George Washington +9.5 (2.2u to win 2u)
Villanova +9.5 (2.2u to win 2u)
Villanova money line +405 (1u to win 4.05u)
Wake Forest +8 (5.5u to win 5u)
Wake Forest money line +320 (1u to win 3.2u)
Western Michigan +10.5 (2.2u to win 2u)
Western Michigan money line +485 (1u to win 4.85u)
Illinois-Chicago +8.5 (2.2u to win 2u)
Illinois-Chicago money line +350 (1u to win 3.5u)
UAB +8.5 (2.2u to win 2u)
UAB money line +340 (1u to win 3.4u)
Maryland +11 (5.5u to win 5u)
Maryland money line +475 (1u to win 4.75u)


TY sir in advance.
Not trying to be an ass, and I hope you don't take this the wrong way but I think if we can come in here and ask and hope that Nropp will answer all of our questions, the least we can do is come in here and read all of the messages, before posting a question, because he's touched on more than half the games that you're asking about. I'm sure that would be greatly appreciated by Nropp that he doesn't have to waste time repeating himself.
 
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Posted: #56
Quote Originally Posted by NFLJOE:

Hey Neil,

At first glance I like the over in the UNLV game. As far as I can remember Boise likes to play an up and down game.
Do you think Boise will be able to score on UNLV?
And if the game becomes a blowout do you think its safer to take the over 1st half?
I would appreciate your thoughts.

I think Boise will score, just a matter of how they defend.

Not a big fan of half lines. To put it into perspective, if I read Pomeroy's research correctly earlier this year, the bulk of the minutes by "key" players were mostly 2H minutes. It's a really good read for those who play 1H's, in fact, it's a great read for anyone (probably the most informative I've come across the past few years). It's on his blog (page 8).

GL
 
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Posted: #57
are you going to play any games yourself nropp?
 
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Posted: #58
Quote Originally Posted by baskettheme:

Hey  nropp ??  what you think of the  akron/ball state game ??  who you think will win that game ??  hmmmmmmmmm  nice pick with ball state.  good luck you will need it.

Congrats on your winning selection (and your prediction of Akron shooting 50% from the perimeter against a team that was holding opponents to less than 30% from that spot prior to tip).

 
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Posted: #59
In their first meeting, Creighton shot 60% from the floor, and the game still finished 13 points below this posted total. Drake should realize that they don't want into get into a track meet with this Creighton team. Creighton is a high scoring team, but they have struggled at times offensively on the road. Drake's defense is also much better at home. I think this total is several points too high. Taken the under.
 
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Posted: #60
Quote Originally Posted by LonghornHoosier:

Here is my card for this evening...

Creighton -5 over Drake (Home)

West Virginia -6 over St John's (Home)

St Bonaventure -5 over Rhode Island (Home)

In addition, I am looking at UNLV -9 over Boise State (Home)

Please let  me know your thoughts... 


Commented on all of them already. A lotta chalk and a lot of gas mileage (road teams).
 
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Posted: #61
Quote Originally Posted by banshee826:

Prov +9.5 (pitt def is brutal and their offense isnt much better - to win by DD is a stretch)

Air Force +4...wont go 1-18 from arc again (thats what prevented them from cover at SDST) and TCU off emotionally draining 20-2 run in last ten min vs Boise..

St Joes -4.5...Dont think Dayton will have anything left in tank after pasting of cross-twon rival Xav on Sat



That Air Force game really just depends on pace. Slow = Air Force cover. Fast = TCU cover.
 
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Posted: #62
much respect to you man..answering ALL of these damn questions day in and day out
 
Prospect
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Posted: #63
hey neil!!! long time follower! you going to post your picks today? 
 
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Posted: #64
Quote Originally Posted by Czar_10:

Southern Miss @ E. Carolina..????

Home and Away

  • The East Carolina Pirates are 7-4 at home this season, and 0-5 against 9-4 opponents.
  • At home the Pirates are averaging 68.7 scoring, and holding teams to 67.4 points scored on defense.
  • The Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles are 5-2 while on the road this season, 4-1 against conference opponents, and 13-2 against non-conference opponents.
  • On the road, the Golden Eagles are averaging 65.1 scoring, and holding teams to 59.1 points scored on defense.

as always thnx for your insights nropp !  GL

Sandwich game for Southern Miss and immediate revenge for ECU. Think the value lies on ECU, but that's more of a hunch than anything. I think ECU is a ton better than what they've shown. ECU will attempt a ton of three's, and the Southern Miss defense will allow it (and they don't guard it good at all). Couldn't lay the chalk here, and the home pup is certainly appetizing.

GL
 
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Posted: #65
Quote Originally Posted by youngmoney23:

much respect to you man..answering ALL of these damn questions day in and day out

 
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Posted: #66
Quote Originally Posted by Hendog:

Since your the only person I respect in here what do you think about my card tonight?

Delaware +7.5 (2.2u to win 2u)
Delaware money line +285 (1u to win 2.85u)
George Washington +9.5 (2.2u to win 2u)
Villanova +9.5 (2.2u to win 2u)
Villanova money line +405 (1u to win 4.05u)
Wake Forest +8 (5.5u to win 5u)
Wake Forest money line +320 (1u to win 3.2u)
Western Michigan +10.5 (2.2u to win 2u)
Western Michigan money line +485 (1u to win 4.85u)
Illinois-Chicago +8.5 (2.2u to win 2u)
Illinois-Chicago money line +350 (1u to win 3.5u)
UAB +8.5 (2.2u to win 2u)
UAB money line +340 (1u to win 3.4u)
Maryland +11 (5.5u to win 5u)
Maryland money line +475 (1u to win 4.75u)


TY sir in advance.

Like Delaware. You should be a bit more kind to the rest of the forum. 

GL
 
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Posted: #67
Quote Originally Posted by Czar_10:

In my model i have this plays for Over considering the high poss. and relative low lines. what you think?

DePaul at Rutgers       75  poss    150pts.    Line: 145        

North Texas at Louisiana-Lafayette       73 poss.   143pts  Line: 137.5

Not trusting that UL-Lafayette offense as I mentioned. Not sure if your model takes the injuries into account or not.

As for Depaul/Rutgers, I think you got some value in the over. They hit 132 last year in a 61 possession game. Teams are faster than last year, and this one is projected at 75 possessions. Only slight negative to the over is if Rutgers uses a zone and forces Depaul to beat them from the outside on the road, not generally a good equation for Depaul points to be put on the scoreboard.

GL
 
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Posted: #68

Quote Originally Posted by ultimatetailer1:

christ nropp do you get paid to be an online degenerate consultant?

 

I think he just loves college hoops and making money ... and he's made me quite a bit this season! NRopp, my finance thanks you, lol. Keep up the fantastic work. Best thread ever. We're in good hands with you and JFen, TRoe, Sloop and others on here

 
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Posted: #69
Quote Originally Posted by SteveWellmer:

Thoughts on:

SMU, New Mexico & Northern Illinois?

 


SMU continuing on the road after losing to Memphis, no clue how they respond.

New Mexico's defense just surrendered 75 and 80 to two teams with a LESS effective FG% than what Colorado State brings in. I don't think the pace will be there, but this is going to be a game where the over gets a good long look from my direction. Colorado State doesn't have a single player who can defend anyone in the post, so there is a good chance that Drew Gordon can do whatever he wants tonight. Combine that with Colorado State's four guard offense and I think we get some scoring in this one. Hopefully, a ton of it.

GL
 
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Posted: #70
Quote Originally Posted by SteveWellmer:

Thoughts on:

St. Bonny, Louisianna Lafayette, SMU, New Mexico & Northern Illinois?

 


Northern Illinois scored 41 points in it's last road game...at...Toledo. Don't think I need to say much more.
 
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Posted: #71
Jordan Swing is out for UAB tonight vs Marshall with a broken hand.  Good info for anyone that was looking into UAB vs Marshall. Swing is a great shooter.
 
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Posted: #72
Quote Originally Posted by sportsanalyst:

Pick a home team with the teaser?  How about LaSalle -1.5 over GW? I don't know if GW can upset LaSalle on the road.  I like so many games I might have to play 2 teasers and mix and match and hope at least one hits lol.

Surprised no one asked about Temple vs Charlotte yet. 

Pitt/Michigan State
 
Prospect
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Posted: #73
bud give one good one today   thank bud
 
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Posted: #74
nropp, if you get chance, can you comment on the UCF-Tulsa and Northern Iowa-Indy State games? I guess Tulsa is favoured here because they torched Rice on the road. I like their bigs, but I still think UCF is the better team. N-Iowa worries me after that meltdown against Bradley and I'm thinking Indy State is in desperation mode here.
 
 
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Posted: #75
Quote Originally Posted by poketjjax:

are you going to play any games yourself nropp?

Nah.
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