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Wednesday 2/15 CBB Plays

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Posted: #1
2011-2012 YTD: 251-193 (56.5%, +51.0 units)
Tuesday: 3-0

Keeping it simple today and really being selective with BracketBusters on-tap this weekend. This event has been very good to me in the past and I've already begun my research on the monstrous slate of games. It's a bit of an adjustment going from the situational capping of conference play to a more matchups-based style, but there will be ample opportunities to find nice lines.

For today...Both of these were posted in my 2/14 thread:

Fordham @ Duquesne Over 139.5 (1 unit)
Purdue @ Illinois -3 (1 unit)

Current Leans:
nOVA +2.5, Miami OH +10, South Carolina -3, Georgia Tech -1, Arkansas +7.5, UAB/SMU Under 112

 
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Posted: #2
Georgia @ South Carolina -3 (1 unit)
I was tentative to lay more than a possession with South Carolina, but getting it at 3 makes me feel very comfortable. I LOVE the spot with Georgia coming off of a thrilling OT upset win in Starkville on Saturday and the Gamecocks returning home after a really tough two-game road swing through Tennessee and Arkansas. Before those games, USC played @ Florida and home to Kentucky. Yikes. Tough stretch. At 1-9, this team looks and sounds desperate for a win. Nice advantage on the inside for USC; Georgia has the edge on the perimeter. Pure situational play.
 
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Illini, eh? Kinda think Purdue pulls out the much needed road win and Weber's team continues it's downward spiral. Purdue has figured something out on offense and repeated it. Weber's true coaching prowess is quickly rearing it's head again. 
 
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2/15 Current Card
Fordham @ Duquesne Over 139.5 (1 unit)
Miami OH +10 @ Akron (1 unit)
Purdue @ Illinois -3 (1 unit)
Georgia @ South Carolina -3 (1 unit)
UAB @ SMU Under 112 (1 unit)

Need better lines on Nova and Georgia Tech as I missed the good numbers from earlier. If they don't move back a bit, this will likely be the final card.
 
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Quote Originally Posted by ZonaCats:

Illini, eh? Kinda think Purdue pulls out the much needed road win and Weber's team continues it's downward spiral. Purdue has figured something out on offense and repeated it. Weber's true coaching prowess is quickly rearing it's head again. 


Haha no question I am probably backing the worst coach in the B1G. Still, I have zero confidence in Purdue on the road and am banking on a major effort from the Ilini after 3 consecutive losses and an embarrassing performance a month ago in West Lafayette.
 
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Posted: #6
jfen, may i ask your reasoning for nova at usf?  i know its just a lean
 
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Quote Originally Posted by indiansrock:

jfen, may i ask your reasoning for nova at usf?  i know its just a lean


For all of his faults, Jay Wright is a really, really good prep guy and has a full week to get ready for this game. In the first meeting, the 'Cats put forth a truly awful effort, losing the rebounding battle by 18 and displaying a complete lack of energy. It was the worst home loss I can remember Wright suffering in my years of following Philadelphia basketball. Now, he and his (very) young team get another shot at the Bulls. If I do take 'Nova, it's because of a trust in Wright with additional prep time and a belief that this team, which has a TON of talent, is about to pull it together for a late-season run. I don't believe USF is nearly as good as its Big East record would indicate (Rutgers, Nova, Seton Hall, St. John's, DePaul, Pitt, Providence x2).


 
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Thanks..J Fen...I follow the MAC and Akron has been a 2nd half machine this year.  They have a habit of slow starts then just close out games late in the 2nd half or OT.  Miami has not played well in Rhodes arena, but they have never been DD dogs there either.  In the first meeting Miami led at the half and Akron pounded the glass and caused some late turnovers for the cover a as a 3 pt road fav.  I think Miami's style of play, possesions in the 60's, should keep this game close but Akron has been hot.  I think this number is right on, and it will be tight, good luck.       
 
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Nova is 2-8 ATS on the road this season. SF is 11-2 ATS at home this season. thats 20% vs 85%. SF is playing very well this season. I'm a big east watcher so iv'e actually seen them play and they have talent. This team is the having the best season in the big east since coming into it years back and Nova is probably having one of its worst seasons. SF is hungry for the tournament. SF by 12 ;)
 
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Posted: #11
Kinda like Villanova as well.  Good luck tonight J.    
 
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Posted: #12
Nova may have time to prepare, but they can't grow and are seriously dwarfed by the USF lineup. I want the Bulls to get in the tournament
 
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Posted: #13
JFen where did you get 139.5 for the fordham game. Every place I looked showed it opened at 141.5 and has not gone below that. Good luck today, with you on Illini, must win game for them but Webber blows, hope he is out after this year.
 
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Posted: #14
Quote Originally Posted by jayfly39:

JFen where did you get 139.5 for the fordham game. Every place I looked showed it opened at 141.5 and has not gone below that. Good luck today, with you on Illini, must win game for them but Webber blows, hope he is out after this year.


BetOnline. Opened at 2:22 EST yesterday. Check Pregame, Covers matchups sections. Both will have the "true" opening number listed.
 
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Just curious - will your bracketbuster plays be posted anytime on Friday?  I dont have a lot of time to cap for Saturday due to work and your insights certainly help me out from time to time.

Thanks
 
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Quote Originally Posted by GWarner27:

Nova may have time to prepare, but they can't grow and are seriously dwarfed by the USF lineup. I want the Bulls to get in the tournament


I also want to USF get in the tournament. And believe me, backing Nova is not an easy thing to do for a St. Joe's student/fan. As far as rebounding, the Bulls are certainly taller, but I think Nova can hang on the glass. Pinkston is finally starting to realize his lofty ceiling and they've gotten some better contributions out of Yarou. Those two present a formidable duo capable of matching Gilchrist and Anderson.

Not necessarily playing it, but certainly a lean.
 
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Quote Originally Posted by dizdoti:

Nova is 2-8 ATS on the road this season. SF is 11-2 ATS at home this season. thats 20% vs 85%. SF is playing very well this season. I'm a big east watcher so iv'e actually seen them play and they have talent. This team is the having the best season in the big east since coming into it years back and Nova is probably having one of its worst seasons. SF is hungry for the tournament. SF by 12 ;)


I've seen USF several times too and watched 10+ of their games last year. Very, very familiar with the personnel and style.

I don't lend any credence whatsoever to ATS records. My interest is in predicting future outcomes. Betting based on ATS numbers puts you behind the curve.
 
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Posted: #18
Quote Originally Posted by banshee826:

Just curious - will your bracketbuster plays be posted anytime on Friday?  I dont have a lot of time to cap for Saturday due to work and your insights certainly help me out from time to time.

Thanks


Hopefully, I'll have them up by Friday evening at the latest, though there will be some added throughout the day on Saturday.
 
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Quote Originally Posted by JFen31:



BetOnline. Opened at 2:22 EST yesterday. Check Pregame, Covers matchups sections. Both will have the "true" opening number listed.

JFen, have you used sbrodds? Do you trust a single location as THE place to pull accurate opening lines? Seems there is almost always disparity in the multiple places that claim they are the source for truly accurate opening lines....I should probably fix the automation I used to use that pulled directly from the "larger" books...
 
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Posted: #22
What number are you looking for on Nova?  +3? 
 
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I saw USF play Auburn early in the year and I swear that was one ugly game. I was prepared to fade both of those teams all year. But they both have somehow managed to put decent seasons together.

Nova also looked bad early and continue to struggle, but they should put forth a decent effort tonight. Might need the points.

GL
 
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Posted: #24
Quote Originally Posted by Swoop:

What number are you looking for on Nova?  +3? 


Yep, only way I can play it. USF is still getting pounded so there's a decent shot it climbs back to 3 before tip.
 
 
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Quote Originally Posted by Barnstorm:

I saw USF play Auburn early in the year and I swear that was one ugly game. I was prepared to fade both of those teams all year. But they both have somehow managed to put decent seasons together.

Nova also looked bad early and continue to struggle, but they should put forth a decent effort tonight. Might need the points.

GL


USF can be really difficult to watch. They play some really tight, physical defense but can truly be an abomination on the offensive end. Very, very slow tempo and almost no transition points. It's a style that has worked well to this point, though.
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