Posted:
#1
November: 46-38, +5.20
November Leans: 39-38
December: 65-70, -9.45
December Leans: 67-79
January: 52-39, +15.80
January Leans: 40-37
February: 58-42, +55.60
February Leans: 55-45
Spot play. Coastal Carolina third straight on the road, VMI on short rest bouncing back in a Noon tip after having just played their lowest possession total of the season in a tough and physical grind it out game. Coastal Carolina will run at times, but they have a nice advantage in the paint here, so I expect them to pound it on the inside at every opportunity. Weird thing is these two teams have played each other the past three seasons at least three times with the conference tournament being the third meeting.
2009
First Meeting = 89 Possessions
Second Meeting = 84 Possessions
Conference Tournament Meeting = 80 Possessions
2010
First Meeting = 89 Possessions
Second Meeting = 76 Possessions
Conference Tournament Meeting = 70 Possessions
2011
First Meeting = 88 Possessions
Second Meeting = 80 Possessions
Conference Tournament Meeting = 71 Possessions
2012
First Meeting = 81 Possessions
Second Meeting = 73 Possessions
Conference Tournament Meeting = ???????
What’s this tell me? When there is something at stake, teams look for advantages against VMI. If Coastal Carolina can slow them down, and utilize their tremendous advantage down low, they don’t need to go into an up and down free flow style against VMI to beat them. VMI’s going to try and push, but bouncing back on short rest in an early game may be a cause for a bit of a slow start. Coastal Carolina’s defense is pretty sound, they don’t take many chances, and their best defense relies again on the interior. VMI has little to no interior scoring outside of transition play and isolation offense, so again, I think the Noon tip plays a key factor in forcing a team that shoots a ton of jump shots into making them. Not only the early tip, but bouncing back from an extremely awkward style and style they aren’t used to playing. I’m only playing the 1H. I do see value in the full game, I just think that oddsmakers think this game might be a bit closer than in the previous meetings, and if that’s the case, then I’m avoiding the 2H foulfest. These two have hung some pretty high 2H totals in recent meetings, especially in the conference tourney setting. Again, just a spot. Tough to avoid.
2* VMI/Coastal Carolina 1H Under 70
Lean: Coastal Carolina -7
Will have one more early in a bit…
GL
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