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nropp11

Captain

Joined: May, 2006

Posts: 7963

Posted: Feb. 8, 2012 - 1:29 PM ET #1

November: 46-38, +5.20

November Leans: 39-38

December: 65-70, -9.45

December Leans: 67-79

January: 52-39, +15.80

January Leans: 40-37

February: 13-11, +1.40

February Leans: 15-12

5* Richmond +2

3* Baylor -1.5

2* Michigan -3

2* NC Wilmington/Delaware Over 140.5

2* Bowling Green/Ball State Under 125

1* Duke/North Carolina Over 156

Lean: Marshall +5

Lean: Bowling Green +4

Lean: St. Bonaventure +4

Lean: Pitt/USF Under 124

Lean: Missouri State/SIU Over 123

Lean: Drake/Illinois State Under 130

GL

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glewis461

Veteran

Joined: Aug, 2005

Posts: 3477

Posted: Feb. 8, 2012 - 1:32 PM ET #2

BOL Neil. Just wondering if you could help me out on why you lean to the Bonnies. If you got time to let me know, I would appreciate it. Thanks.

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SuperflySnuka

Veteran

Joined: Jan, 2008

Posts: 1349

Posted: Feb. 8, 2012 - 1:33 PM ET #3

Long time listener first time caller. Big fan.

Not happy to see you on the Wolverines. Would love to hear a bit of your insight, as I value it.

I can't over look Michigan's lack of an inside presence, their inability to create their own shot. I wish I could, cause they are my team

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ZonaCats

Veteran

Joined: Jan, 2007

Posts: 3600

Posted: Feb. 8, 2012 - 1:37 PM ET #4

Gotta request takes on these games before the line forms:

Duke

Pitt

Gtown

Wake

Baylor

St John's

Penn St

WVU

LSU

St Joe's

N Iowa

RI

GW

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wiseman22

Captain

Joined: Jun, 2011

Posts: 5998

Posted: Feb. 8, 2012 - 1:38 PM ET #5

bol

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DrWebster

Prospect

Joined: Sep, 2011

Posts: 44

Posted: Feb. 8, 2012 - 1:40 PM ET #6

Neil:

I lean Baylor but am on the fence. Can you please convince me to go with my gut and take the bears tonight.

Thanks in Advance

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trajan21

Prospect

Joined: Nov, 2008

Posts: 79

Posted: Feb. 8, 2012 - 1:46 PM ET #7

Quote Originally Posted by SuperflySnuka:

Long time listener first time caller. Big fan.

Not happy to see you on the Wolverines. Would love to hear a bit of your insight, as I value it.

I can't over look Michigan's lack of an inside presence, their inability to create their own shot. I wish I could, cause they are my team

Nebraska is without Jorge Brian Diaz. Without him Nebraska has less inside presence than any team. And the Skers do not shoot 3s very well.

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mnvikings1

Prospect

Joined: Jan, 2011

Posts: 67

Posted: Feb. 8, 2012 - 1:48 PM ET #8

The improved Bengals (12-9), who have already won more games this year than they did all of last season (11-21), were sent packing from the SEC tourney by the Commodores in 2011. Not only does series history (11-7 ATS, including 7-4 ATS with revenge) suggest payback is in order tonight in Memorial Gym but so does Vandy’s 1-4 ATS log at home versus a conference foe with last-season tourney revenge. Better yet for LSU backers is the fact that the third-place Commies arrive in the middle of a second-place Florida/first-place Kentucky revenge sandwich. Expect Vandy’s energy to be sapped after Saturday's loss in Gainesville here in Nashville tonight…

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mnvikings1

Prospect

Joined: Jan, 2011

Posts: 67

Posted: Feb. 8, 2012 - 1:50 PM ET #9

like drake/illni state under as well...

Drake finds itself in a tough spot right now, with arguably its best player, Ben Simons, sidelined with mono. The Bulldogs didn't fare well in their first game without their star, scoring a season-low 39 points in a blowout loss to Missouri State on Saturday. Keep in mind, they had struggled in their previous game as well, putting up only 54 points in a loss at Indiana State. This isn't an ideal spot for the Drake offense to bounce back, as Illinois State has proven to be a tough defensive foe at home, where it allows just 56.9 points per game on 37.4% shooting. I've called the Redbirds a 'flaky' team on more than one occasion this season, due to their inconsistent nature. They're coming off back-to-back solid performances offensively, although one of those came in a runaway win for Creighton one week ago tonight (we cashed with the Blue Jays in that 28-point rout). It's worth noting that the Redbirds have scored over 70 points in back-to-back games, as they've yet to accomplish that feat in three consecutive contests this season. 70 could be a key number for Illinois State in this one, at least as far as the total is concerned. Note that the Redbirds have broken the 70-point barrier only once in their last four home games, and that came on Saturday against Bradley, the worst team in the Missouri Valley Conference. That contest still only reached 126 total points, as Illinois State put forth a terrific defensive effort, holding the Braves to only 48 points. I say that 70 points will be a key number in relation to the total, as I don't expect Drake to break 60. It's been a struggle for the Bulldogs to get into the 60s on the road in MVC play at the best of times this season. Now without Simons in the lineup, that task becomes even tougher. Note that the 'under' is 4-1-1 in Drake's six conference road games so far this season. The 'over' has cashed in each of the last four meetings in this series, but we're dealing with a different set of circumstances tonight. Drake knows that scoring is going to be an issue, and should do all it can to keep the number of possessions down in this one. Illinois State doesn't mind playing that type of game, as despite what we've seen over its last two contests, it is by no means an offensive powerhouse. The Redbirds have held the opposition to 54 points or less in three of their last four wins. Strong defensive play has been a key to any success they've had this season

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like drake/illni state under as well...

Drake finds itself in a tough spot right now, with arguably its best player, Ben Simons, sidelined with mono. The Bulldogs didn't fare well in their first game without their star, scoring a season-low 39 points in a blowout loss to Missouri State on Saturday. Keep in mind, they had struggled in their previous game as well, putting up only 54 points in a loss at Indiana State. This isn't an ideal spot for the Drake offense to bounce back, as Illinois State has proven to be a tough defensive foe at home, where it allows just 56.9 points per game on 37.4% shooting. I've called the Redbirds a 'flaky' team on more than one occasion this season, due to their inconsistent nature. They're coming off back-to-back solid performances offensively, although one of those came in a runaway win for Creighton one week ago tonight (we cashed with the Blue Jays in that 28-point rout). It's worth noting that the Redbirds have scored over 70 points in back-to-back games, as they've yet to accomplish that feat in three consecutive contests this season. 70 could be a key number for Illinois State in this one, at least as far as the total is concerned. Note that the Redbirds have broken the 70-point barrier only once in their last four home games, and that came on Saturday against Bradley, the worst team in the Missouri Valley Conference. That contest still only reached 126 total points, as Illinois State put forth a terrific defensive effort, holding the Braves to only 48 points. I say that 70 points will be a key number in relation to the total, as I don't expect Drake to break 60. It's been a struggle for the Bulldogs to get into the 60s on the road in MVC play at the best of times this season. Now without Simons in the lineup, that task becomes even tougher. Note that the 'under' is 4-1-1 in Drake's six conference road games so far this season. The 'over' has cashed in each of the last four meetings in this series, but we're dealing with a different set of circumstances tonight. Drake knows that scoring is going to be an issue, and should do all it can to keep the number of possessions down in this one. Illinois State doesn't mind playing that type of game, as despite what we've seen over its last two contests, it is by no means an offensive powerhouse. The Redbirds have held the opposition to 54 points or less in three of their last four wins. Strong defensive play has been a key to any success they've had this season

shadyejr

Rookie

Joined: Mar, 2011

Posts: 628

Posted: Feb. 8, 2012 - 1:52 PM ET #10

Neil,

Another day another battle against the bookies lol. i like a lot of you plays today. Before i formulate my final plays for today tho, i was wondering if we could have a healthy discussion on the following games.

The temple game. Temple has been covering a lot lately. They are not a bad home team, and at first glance i was going to lay off temple. It opened at 13 for me and i thought i would find something better. However, the line is moving down, definately something i was not expecting. I see Temple blowing George Washington out. Was just wondering on your view of this one.

The next one i was looking at was DUKE UNC. I had this one at unc -8.5 . when i saw it open at -6.5 i almost jumped. it's now at 6. I strongly feel that unc wins this game convincingly. I actually see it mirroring the game yesterday at Kentucky. Your insight on this would be greatly appreciated.

Lastly you think Penn state covers against michigan?

BOL today. will probably join you on a few plays.

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Dosan23

Rookie

Joined: Mar, 2007

Posts: 928

Posted: Feb. 8, 2012 - 2:02 PM ET #11

Hi Nropp, thanks for the Bama play yesterday!

Can I get your analysis on Pitt, Michigan, and Rutgers today?

I love all 3, but can't decide on which one I should hit hardest as I usually limit myself to one major play a day. Pitt is rolling as expected since Woodall got back. Michigan seems to be getting a little better on the road and just seem like the better overall team and Rutgers intrigues me as they've taken down a lot better quality teams at home than S. Hall. Does Rutgers play any kind of a zone at all? If I remember correctly S. Hall struggles to score vs zones correct?

Thanks and GL on all your plays! Much appreciated as always.

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JEG53

Hall of Fame

Joined: Jul, 2007

Posts: 26400

Posted: Feb. 8, 2012 - 2:05 PM ET #12

Nice one with Alabama,then the double up at the half,which I missed,lol
you had that one pegged and was right about Flor.,if the 3s dont fall they dont cover,think they hit one in the first half,I was able to take Kent.in sec half to end up making some money on it,

GL today

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dwarfman64

Rookie

Joined: Nov, 2011

Posts: 516

Posted: Feb. 8, 2012 - 2:09 PM ET #13

Very anxious to read the writeup on Richmond +2. I am from Richmond, and have largely been disappointed with them all season, but am always in awe of your excellent capping. Great work hitting your last two *5 plays, Neil! Keep up the great work as always.

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bigbozo

Prospect

Joined: May, 2007

Posts: 457

Posted: Feb. 8, 2012 - 2:13 PM ET #14

Nropp, why don't give a short reason for your plays so you won't get so many people asking why you like it. You've spoiled everbody with your long writrups, but now you write nothing and we have to waste time seeing if anybody asked you about it. This would make it easier on you and those following you as your input is equal to none!

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nropp11

Captain

Joined: May, 2006

Posts: 7963

Posted: Feb. 8, 2012 - 2:21 PM ET #15

Quote Originally Posted by glewis461:

BOL Neil. Just wondering if you could help me out on why you lean to the Bonnies. If you got time to let me know, I would appreciate it. Thanks.

Really interesting game. I've seen the Bonnie's a few times this year, and it appears that their weakness is the half court offense outside of Nicholson. Even more shocking is the pace rating which I think is a bit misleading at #218. This team will run when it gets the opportunities and they should have plenty tonight. In a more up and down game, their weaknesses are really taken away in the half court. Bonnie's have had a week to prep, too while Umass has come off a couple high possession grueling battles on the road. Getting the better attacking (free throw attempts and makes) team in a game that should feature quite a bit of transition chances and a team with some nice size at the guard position to contain Chaz Williams. Just a lean, though.

GL

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logueboy

Rookie

Joined: Feb, 2009

Posts: 795

Posted: Feb. 8, 2012 - 2:21 PM ET #16

LIKE the SPIDERS AS HOME DOGS...........

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RemiRem

Prospect

Joined: Jan, 2012

Posts: 205

Posted: Feb. 8, 2012 - 2:23 PM ET #17

After a loss anytime this season, Mich has gone on to win and or win ats so far. 6-0 or 6-1. Im def taking Mich-3. GL Nropp. Yeah the trend doesn't matter but in this spot, Michigan will win this game by 5+ easy. Thats my take on it Superfly but i'm no Neil either bud. I am having a good week so far. Mich is my team to but cant let emotions play with our money but our team is the better team today.

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DAnewguy

Veteran

Joined: Feb, 2011

Posts: 2573

Posted: Feb. 8, 2012 - 2:23 PM ET #18

everytime i take richmond i lose...hopefully it turns around today..

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pitbull666

Prospect

Joined: Dec, 2009

Posts: 201

Posted: Feb. 8, 2012 - 2:25 PM ET #19

Neil,

I have been looking at this Lasalle game most of today, I see why you would be on Richmond but everyone seems to find value in Lasalle including your old friend EJSaint10! Thoughts.
I think if it hits 2.5 ill make a play on Richmond

Lets talk a little about Baylor at home with Revenge in mind vs Kansas. If you look back at the 1st matchup they let that game get away in the last 2.30 of the 1st half, then the home shellacking started in the 2nd half. Total also is interesting and I think this game is played way slower than the first which hit the over with almost 7 mins left!

Looking for your thoughts

thx

Quote Originally Posted by nropp11:

November: 46-38, +5.20

November Leans: 39-38

December: 65-70, -9.45

December Leans: 67-79

January: 52-39, +15.80

January Leans: 40-37

February: 13-11, +1.40

February Leans: 15-12

5* Richmond +2

3* Baylor -1.5

2* Michigan -3

2* NC Wilmington/Delaware Over 140.5

2* Bowling Green/Ball State Under 125

1* Duke/North Carolina Over 156

Lean: Marshall +5

Lean: Bowling Green +4

Lean: St. Bonaventure +4

Lean: Pitt/USF Under 124

Lean: Missouri State/SIU Over 123

Lean: Drake/Illinois State Under 130

GL

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JROCK1966

Captain

Joined: Oct, 2007

Posts: 8164

Posted: Feb. 8, 2012 - 2:26 PM ET #20

Thoughts on Arkansas tonight? Thanks!

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nropp11

Captain

Joined: May, 2006

Posts: 7963

Posted: Feb. 8, 2012 - 2:28 PM ET #21

Quote Originally Posted by SuperflySnuka:

Long time listener first time caller. Big fan.

Not happy to see you on the Wolverines. Would love to hear a bit of your insight, as I value it.

I can't over look Michigan's lack of an inside presence, their inability to create their own shot. I wish I could, cause they are my team

Beilein hasn't lost two games in a row this year, yet. He's 6-0 in bounceback games with victories over:

UCLA

Iowa State

Wisconsin

Michigan State

Purdue

Indiana

Can't put Nebraska in that group of teams. Should be a ton of three's attempted and have more faith in Michigan making them rather than Nebraska. Don't need an inside presence in this game I don't think without Diaz. And Michigan doesn't have to change or adjust a thing. This is the type of game they want to play in and they should benefit from it.

GL

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djcbulls23

All-Star

Joined: Jan, 2010

Posts: 13323

Posted: Feb. 8, 2012 - 2:28 PM ET #22

Opinion on the 'Cuse/G'town O/U tonight? thanks a lot

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ReadBtWtheLines

Prospect

Joined: Jan, 2012

Posts: 127

Posted: Feb. 8, 2012 - 2:28 PM ET #23

Any longshot ML dogs have any value tonight IYO. Duke, Gtown, N.Iowa??

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andreagassi6969

Hall of Fame

Joined: Nov, 2006

Posts: 20312

Posted: Feb. 8, 2012 - 2:35 PM ET #24

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JFen31

Captain

Joined: Dec, 2008

Posts: 8308

Posted: Feb. 8, 2012 - 2:40 PM ET #25

Quote Originally Posted by nropp11:

Really interesting game. I've seen the Bonnie's a few times this year, and it appears that their weakness is the half court offense outside of Nicholson. Even more shocking is the pace rating which I think is a bit misleading at #218. This team will run when it gets the opportunities and they should have plenty tonight. In a more up and down game, their weaknesses are really taken away in the half court. Bonnie's have had a week to prep, too while Umass has come off a couple high possession grueling battles on the road. Getting the better attacking (free throw attempts and makes) team in a game that should feature quite a bit of transition chances and a team with some nice size at the guard position to contain Chaz Williams. Just a lean, though.

GL

Correct on the pace thing with the Bonnies. Schmidt is an up-tempo coach but obviously knows his meal ticket (at least this season) is an elite post player whose best work is done in the halfcourt setting. Betting Bonnies' overs will have a ton of value heading into next season with Nicholson no longer in the fold.

I see your point on the bigger SBU guards defending Chaz, but the guy is so absurdly fast with the ball that no one can stay in front of him. Even Carl Jones from SJU, probably the second-quickest player in the conference, couldn't even come close to staying with him. If UMASS succeeds in turning up the heat early, the porous Bonnies ballhandlers probably cough up the ball 20+ times before all is said and done.

Then again, the A-10 has been such a clusterfuck this season that no result would surprise me at this point.

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