Lost my ATS pick last night and that's why I usually don't play those lately. I did however go 2-0 on TT's, which were my 2 POD's. That brings my season record to 19-6, hitting at a nice 76% on TT bets.
22-25-1 ATS (-6.4)
9-8 ML Parlays (+7.04)
1-2 MLs (-1.25)
6-5 Teasers (+2.5)
7-4 O/U's (+3.4)
19-6 TT's (+19.3)
64-50-1 All Picks (+24.59 Units)
16-8 on POD's (+13.9 Units) *** counted in totals above
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
Lost my ATS pick last night and that's why I usually don't play those lately. I did however go 2-0 on TT's, which were my 2 POD's. That brings my season record to 19-6, hitting at a nice 76% on TT bets.
22-25-1 ATS (-6.4)
9-8 ML Parlays (+7.04)
1-2 MLs (-1.25)
6-5 Teasers (+2.5)
7-4 O/U's (+3.4)
19-6 TT's (+19.3)
64-50-1 All Picks (+24.59 Units)
16-8 on POD's (+13.9 Units) *** counted in totals above
Penn State is scoring 68.1 PPG on the season, 60.3 PPG in Big 10 road games, and 67 PPG in Big 10 home games.
Wisconsin defensively is giving up just 55.9 PPG on the year, 58.4 PPG in Big 10 home games, and 60 PPG in Big 10 road games.
These two teams faced off earlier in the year and it resulted in a 89-72 home victory by Wisconsin. The point total in this game stood out to me because Penn State was 1 of 2 teams to score this many points on Wisconsin on their home court. Other than Indiana's 78 and Penn State's 72, Wisconsin held all 5 of their other Big 10 opponents to 55 points or less at home.
Now we head to Penn State where the Nittany Lions score 6.7 MORE PPG in Big 10 home games than they do on the road. Defensively the Badgers give up 1.6 more PPG on the road than at home. On their home court Penn State has been held under 60 points just once when they scored 56 vs. Nebraska. In 5 of their 6 conference games at home they have scored 63 points or more. Two times this season Wisconsin has played a Big 10 team twice. When they played Northwestern they allowed 8 more points on the road than in the home matchup. Against Iowa they allowed 13 more points in the road game. Penn State on the other hand has also played 2 teams twice, Rutgers and Maryland. In their 2 matchups with Rutgers, Penn State scored 33 more points when they played at home. Against Maryland, PSU scored 15 more points in the home matchup.
Here we see a Penn State team who scores the ball much better on their home court, facing a Wisconsin team who has been giving up more points away from home. These trends combined with the fact that Penn State already scored 72 on the road at Wisconsin makes it impossible for me to not like this line.
2.2 Units ---> 2 Units
Penn State TT Over 59.5
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POD 1
Penn State is scoring 68.1 PPG on the season, 60.3 PPG in Big 10 road games, and 67 PPG in Big 10 home games.
Wisconsin defensively is giving up just 55.9 PPG on the year, 58.4 PPG in Big 10 home games, and 60 PPG in Big 10 road games.
These two teams faced off earlier in the year and it resulted in a 89-72 home victory by Wisconsin. The point total in this game stood out to me because Penn State was 1 of 2 teams to score this many points on Wisconsin on their home court. Other than Indiana's 78 and Penn State's 72, Wisconsin held all 5 of their other Big 10 opponents to 55 points or less at home.
Now we head to Penn State where the Nittany Lions score 6.7 MORE PPG in Big 10 home games than they do on the road. Defensively the Badgers give up 1.6 more PPG on the road than at home. On their home court Penn State has been held under 60 points just once when they scored 56 vs. Nebraska. In 5 of their 6 conference games at home they have scored 63 points or more. Two times this season Wisconsin has played a Big 10 team twice. When they played Northwestern they allowed 8 more points on the road than in the home matchup. Against Iowa they allowed 13 more points in the road game. Penn State on the other hand has also played 2 teams twice, Rutgers and Maryland. In their 2 matchups with Rutgers, Penn State scored 33 more points when they played at home. Against Maryland, PSU scored 15 more points in the home matchup.
Here we see a Penn State team who scores the ball much better on their home court, facing a Wisconsin team who has been giving up more points away from home. These trends combined with the fact that Penn State already scored 72 on the road at Wisconsin makes it impossible for me to not like this line.
Providence is scoring 69.9 PPG on the season, 67.7 PPG in Big East play, and 69.2 PPG in Big East road games.
DePaul defensively is giving up 74 PPG on the year, 72.1 PPG in Big East games, and 65.8 PPG in Big East home games.
These teams met earlier this year and it resulted in an 83-72 home win by Providence. Now they travel to DePaul for the rematch. Providence's TT is set at 74.5. They haven't scored more than 74 on the road all year. Six conference road games, six totals under 75. It's hard to argue with that but it gets better. Defensively DePaul has only allowed 1 Big East team out of 6 to score more than 75 on their home court and that was Georgetown who scored 78. DePaul has played Villanova, Xavier and St. Johns at home, ALL teams who score more PPG than Providence, and held all 3 of them under 69 points.
Seeing that Providence scored 83 against DePaul already this year makes you think they should be able to get 75 but I don't see it that way. Aside from that game, Providence scored under 75 in ALL 12 of their other Big East games. It's either the rivalry that makes them score way more or their previous matchup is an outlier, and I'm going to assume the latter. DePaul has already played 4 Big East teams twice. Seton Hall managed to improve their scoring from 60 on their home floor to a whopping 62 on DePaul's. The other 3 teams: Nova, Xavier, and St. Johns scored 13, 21, and 25 points LESS at DePaul than they did at home.
DePaul giving up 77 PPG in road conference games and only 65.8 PPG at home is a huge factor to me in this total. Add in that Providence has surpassed the 75 point clip only once in 12 conference games makes me have a strong play on this. History has showed that this has been a high scoring matchup the past few years but I'm gonna side with the lopsided numbers from this season.
2.2 Units -----> 2 Units
Providence TT Under 74.5
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POD 2
Providence is scoring 69.9 PPG on the season, 67.7 PPG in Big East play, and 69.2 PPG in Big East road games.
DePaul defensively is giving up 74 PPG on the year, 72.1 PPG in Big East games, and 65.8 PPG in Big East home games.
These teams met earlier this year and it resulted in an 83-72 home win by Providence. Now they travel to DePaul for the rematch. Providence's TT is set at 74.5. They haven't scored more than 74 on the road all year. Six conference road games, six totals under 75. It's hard to argue with that but it gets better. Defensively DePaul has only allowed 1 Big East team out of 6 to score more than 75 on their home court and that was Georgetown who scored 78. DePaul has played Villanova, Xavier and St. Johns at home, ALL teams who score more PPG than Providence, and held all 3 of them under 69 points.
Seeing that Providence scored 83 against DePaul already this year makes you think they should be able to get 75 but I don't see it that way. Aside from that game, Providence scored under 75 in ALL 12 of their other Big East games. It's either the rivalry that makes them score way more or their previous matchup is an outlier, and I'm going to assume the latter. DePaul has already played 4 Big East teams twice. Seton Hall managed to improve their scoring from 60 on their home floor to a whopping 62 on DePaul's. The other 3 teams: Nova, Xavier, and St. Johns scored 13, 21, and 25 points LESS at DePaul than they did at home.
DePaul giving up 77 PPG in road conference games and only 65.8 PPG at home is a huge factor to me in this total. Add in that Providence has surpassed the 75 point clip only once in 12 conference games makes me have a strong play on this. History has showed that this has been a high scoring matchup the past few years but I'm gonna side with the lopsided numbers from this season.
Sorry guys 0-2 on TT's. 1-0 on posted ATS. Luckily for me I actually played Vandy +7 at about 10 units because I may or may not have had inside information . Almost hit that ML too. Oh well. Hope you all did well tonight.
1-2 Tonight - 3.4 Units
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Sorry guys 0-2 on TT's. 1-0 on posted ATS. Luckily for me I actually played Vandy +7 at about 10 units because I may or may not have had inside information . Almost hit that ML too. Oh well. Hope you all did well tonight.
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Very nice Bruce. Stick to what's working for you. Keep up the great work. 
. Almost hit that ML too. Oh well. Hope you all did well tonight.
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