🏈🏈🏈 Fubah2's risky CFB bets

LIVE bet at Bet365: 

3:48 left in 1Q after LSU scored....

LSU +9.5 -350 alt spread line    *BEST BET

NOTE:   I am on LSU with that alt line @Bet365 but right now during the com break, FSU could be had for +10.5 -300

FSU grabs momentum bigly!

UP 3 TDs on LSU,  Seminoles look like a top 2 contender....

Loss

6 - 1  with *Best Bets to start the season

MNF: Clemson  @DUKE

NOTE: Line move from Clemson -13.5 now down to 12 in most books

We can easily make a case for either side to cover tonight's tilt.

Clemson is the better team overall, no question.

But Duke returns a lot of starters from an up and coming squad and one should expect them to play very highly motivated tonight, AT HOME, at least through the first half. 

We can't handicap turnovers of course, so if we assume they are even in the first half (equal result as well) then personally I expect it should be close by HT........ after that is unknown.  Still it should be a fun watch!

Too close to call for me.  Pass.  Looking for in game opps or prop bets...

BOL with your bets fellas 

For week 2  I am definitely leaning toward Colorado.

ML is -150 now and I just might grab that

Week2

Normally I hold off the start of the season for at least 3 weeks, but usually 4.  Need to get the feel for the teams amid all they preseason hype.  But I've already broken my rule so I might as well continue....

Friday, Sep 8:

Illinois @Kansas

I suppose a case can be made for either here in the early going. I have these rated about even. But Illinois struggled to win at home last week against a MAC team that is projected to be weaker than Kansas.  Illini needed a very fortunate pick-6 and then a late drive to kick a game winning FG,  on home field,  vs a supposedly weaker opp.

Now they travel to face a better team - a rising Jayhawks team which handily won their opener despite playing without their starting QB, Daniels.  He is expected to play Friday but may not start.  No matter.  Bean proved last year he is equally as good imo.  Kansas is returning far more production than Illinois on each side of the ball.  That should count for something (I hope!)

With a change of venue for the Illini - they'll play hard regardless,  and lucky turnovers could turn things in their favor again - but I'm giving the nod to the hommies to win su, despite a key WR being Q

JAYHAWKS   -155

This could be very close so it is not a *best bet

PS. I am NOT recommending anyone follow/bet on any of my posted bets.  This season I could easily do a "bellyflop off the 3 meter board  into a drained pool." 

Nebraska @COLORADO

A case for either side can easily be made for either side of this game and there's been much each way on this forum by several.

  Are the BUFFS for real?  or a one-game-wonder with unwarranted pre-game hype?

While it might be wiser to pass on this one and just watch I'm going with the homies to win su on gut feel that the home crowd is so thirsty for a return to winning that they will motivate the team (especially their anemic D) to another close and glorious win.
       Make no mistake, I am NOT A FAN per se of the Buffs and their narcissistic HC.....but business is business. I know what I saw - with a patchwork of new guys from a dreadful team last year - and facing a ranked opp - ON THE ROAD no less! The game was basically EVEN and it should not have been. On paper TCU should have dominated and blown them out. But we saw an almost uncanny crisp passing attack for a whopping 510 yards! And that was only their first game! Logically, we should expect this patchwork team is only going to get a little better and crisper every week!! Their biggest strides typically occur in the early going!

Sure Huskers are expected to be a decent team and played an EVEN game on the road vs a decent Minnesota team as well. But they are on the road yet again and they will be playing at elevation. And this time facing a young inspired team with EPIC momentum and their first game in front of their astonished and frenzied fans! Folsom Field will be rocking high, even if they fall behind early! Hell, even the cheapest tickets for this game are selling for around $300! It will be a sellout which is almost unheard of at Folsom in recent years! If homefield advantage means anything in football this team will have it like few others!

But alas, the super-boisterous SOLD OUT home crowd, the momentum & improvements, the mile high altitude, and a very sharp passing attack DO NOT guarantee a win, let alone a cover! But they help!

Yes fellas, there's been a LOT of hype and seemingly everybody getting all giddy and goo-goo/ga-ga with hype & optimism over the BUFFS upset win at TCU.  I get it. I really do.  It's way over-done! 

But likewise, the knee-jerk reaction of many is to be overly critical in opposition and contrarian to all the blissful press clippings.  That has its pitfalls too!! We have to look at it objectively as best we can without the biases to the teams or the media attention. Deion's kid is the real deal at QB and they proved it at JV state!
That said, if BUFFS can escape costly turnovers, untimely penalties and key injuries, that passing attack beats Nebraska by 4+ pts in an otherwise even game of breaks.
I prefer the cushion from a SU result in what I suspect could be very close,

BUFFALOES -145

NOTE: not a *best bet. It's close enough that a lucky turnover can flip the result.

Vanderbilt @WAKE

Last year, the Commodores were just 5 - 7 overall while Deacons werea decent 8 - 5.
This year Wake Forest is rated way higher than Vandy.
And it's a home game. (early start)

Lowly rated Hawaii, which recently lost AT HOME to a very mediocre Stanford squad, actually outplayed Vandy in game #1, despite 2 NET turnovers and a 97 yd KO return TD against in a 7 pt game! Vandy, playing at home for the second consecutive game, handily defeated one of the very weak FCS teams. So they played two WEAKASS teams and lucky to be 2 - 0 against them.  Both at home.

Now they change venues to meet a very much stronger opp.

Meanwhile,

WAKE clobbered a top 25 rated FCS team (ELON) by 20 pts - despite giving up a pick-6 - and will now face a Vandy team that is likely only slightly better than ELON.

The only injury of possible concern is to the Vandy secondary.....and WAKE just threw for 329 yards against ELON.... 11 yds per pass...

I am iffy about covering 10 pts AT HOME in this spot when the opp does have that 2nd game played edge, but I do like the Deacons to win SU.

DEACONS -415

Of course anything can happen in sports. Lucky breaks can flip a game so easily.

Purdue @Hokies

I have them almost dead even.  So this is a coin flip on a small line.

PASS

Many more to come .....

Texas A&M @MIAMI

Last year QB Tyler Van Dyke and the Hurricanes blew into College Station and outplayed the Aggies ....but lost a game they should have won after 2 missed FGAs and a turnover deep in their own end that cost them dearly.

But now the venue switches to Miami.

Van Dyke is back!

It's revenge time!

Both teams appear to have about the same "returning production"
Injuries don't appear to a major concern so I'm not sure why the visitors are home dogs!

Sure, Aggies AT HOME routed their only opp, 52 - 10.
But that was New Mexico. Arguably the lowest rated team in FBS!!! How did they allow 10 to be scored against them by the lowly LOBOS???

Meanwhile, a much MUCH tougher Hurricanes routed their only opp, 34 - 3 vs Miami-OHIO. Also a weak team but not nearly as low rated as New Mexico!

I'll take a home dog in what looks to be to be an EVEN matchup at worst, if not a Miami edge.

HURRICANES +4.5 -150   (yes, I buy pts often using alt-lines @Bet365 usually)

BOL with your bets Saturday, fellas!

It's still early yet, and I DO expect Illinois to  get it going, but right now - with Jalen Daniels - the JAYHAWKS are making it look kinda easy

Too easy.......oy vey!

Eeeks....JAYHAWKS moving down to run up the score, but after a completed pass for a first down, the fortuitous Illini recovered a fumble to prevent being down 38 - 7

WOW! .....Like the color man on the telecast, I may need new glasses too.....I saw a 2nd down run make the line to gain with ease!  But .....LUCKY ILLINOIS!

Winner

Miami-Ohio @UMASS

  I have the Redhawks rated higher than UMASS, despite being blown by the Canes last week. But they are hardly a GOOD team.
And UMASS likewise got blown by a quality team on the road last week.
But the week before they went on the road as an 11 pt underdog and upset a team rated only slightly lower than Miami-OHIO.

Minutemen aren't even a mediocre team (and neither are the Redhawks) They are both solidly in the bottom half of FCS. UMASS is lower.
BUT.... they are finally AT HOME, and with that extra game-experience!

**Also, now the Redhawks are without their big starting TE.

I say the Minutemen are underrated here as TD underdogs at home to another weak team rated only a little better than the New Mexico State team they beat on the road in game #1

My money is on the home dogs here (buying a few pts for a cushion)

MINUTEMEN +10.5 -175

BOL with your bets this weekend, fellas!

Notre Dame @NC STATE

ND has an extra game experience!

Ranked team and highly rated, plays on the road against a team that only managed to beat a weak team 24 - 14.

If lowly UCONN can score 14 against STATE then how many points will a very good offense led by Sam Hartman score?!

28+  is my guess....maybe 35 

And if STATE can only muster 24 pts against a weakling team like UCONN, then how many are they likely to score against a ranked team that has one extra game experience? 

Maybe 17?  21 at best?!

IRISH completely dominated their two opps thus far and are looking for bigger fish to fry.

FIGHTIN' IRISH  -300

More in the morning.......currently 9 leaners.......but I'm pooped now 

BOL with your bets this weekend, fellas! 

or they r calling it all hype bcuz thats what it is   and it might all blow up in colorados face when they come back down to earth with a thud