Quote Originally Posted by Carolina9119:
Not sure how with your model 60% equals a profitable day! But BOL!
That point has been raised before 
and it can be a legitimate concern for many, but here's 2 points here to consider:
1/ Obviously VEGAS sets very low ML on the even matchups, but conversely sets HIGH ML on those teams very likely to win su. It's a risk reward scenario in each case.
Sure the juice is low at -110 on both teams but the realistic odds of winning those centers right around 50% (give or take) However, if one can profit sticking to betting only those "low juice" lines, I say GREAT!!!
Otoh, HIGH-JUICE ML can indeed be risky. (ie, upset of a heavy fav)
But the odds of winning su and avoiding an upset loss are quite HIGH!
Generally speaking, as my documented records show (all in this one thread) my losers tend to be clustered around the bets with lower juice (ie, a lower expectation of winning)....whereas my much higher numbers of winners tend to be clustered around the heavy fav lines (which mnakes logical sense since those have a much higher chance of winning su!
One must be selective in each scenario in order to profit. A skilled handicapper uses his analysis/judgement to carefully select those "heavy favs" which are least likely to falter and suffer an upset.
New Years Day my bets scored a profit on a 3 - 2 result, laying HEAVY juice. My two losses were 2 hedge bets on ML dogs, against 3 wins. 3 - 2 = 60%
Day before, I bet Penn State -600 (LIVE) when I believed they were about to DOMINATE Boise. They won 31 - 14.
Dec 26 I bet Toledo -400 (LIVE) and LOST.
Win some, lose some.
But my particular capping methods win A LOT MORE, turning a very significant net profit, which is the bottom line for me. I am NOT in this for entertainment per se....I am in it to make profit.
**Note: I have NOT suggested anyone follow my bets, and I NEVER have in any sport!
Indeed often I am advising people to AVOID my bets due to impending regression!
But my methods work for me and I'm quite pleased.
Congrats to all other cappers who's capping methods work for them!!
2/ My 3 year documentation - all stored in this one thread - proves my style of capping to pick su game winners (rather than ATS) is indeed quite profitable for me and has been for awhile.
Caveat warning to readers! It is NOT as simple as merely betting every HEAVY FAV on the board on the ML and expect to profit! HELL NO!!! That's a fast track to disaster. One must analyze with sound methodology and then proceed with caution on ALL types of bets (unless one is a fake bettor on a public forum, and we have a LOT of those on the forum....most of them identified by their propensity to claim fake MULTIPLE UNITS with their picks in an effort to impress people)
60% again today! 
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