2021 notes as i go

The QB Shuffle.....

Just browsing and came across a couple intriguing moves. 

*Alan Bowman at Michigan- Does Harbaugh finally have a QB with toughness similar to his own?! Im thinkin he might. Bowman is a gamer, leader, and tough as nails. He might be just the guy Harbaugh needs. If they can get the defense straightned out, they might be able to make a run.

*Anthony Brown at Oregon- This isnt a new move but with Shough transferring out, Brown is now kinda the man. I always liked his game at BC and with the talent Oregon has and the system they run, he could have a breakout year imo

*Tyler Shough at Texas Tech- I havent dived into the reasoning for the transfer from Oregon but i must say, Im intrigued. Shough was very green last year and his play was erratic but you could definitely see he has all the tools if he can get comfortable in the system. Tech might be a fit for him to just wing it out. I think Tech could be an underrated value this year. 

 *worth mentioning

Patrick O’brien @Washington 

Jake Bentley @S Alabama

Chase Brice @Appy St

Mckenzie Milton at FSU with year of eligibility under Norvell......WATCHOUT

QUICK PICKS

Auburn -36.5 vs Akron

FSU +9.5 vs ND

Ohio +1 vs Syracuse

Georgia Tech -16.5 vs NIU

Don't forget Charlie Brewer going to Utah.

Like that chalky Auburn play. 

Akron such a sacrificial lamb here. Beaten by Western Michigan last yr wk1 58-13, 42-3 loss to Illinois to start 2019. Auburn with new coach, should be all business here. When I made my moneyline parlay play this was my second choice. May still get it before it climbs.

@UNIMAN

 Just for that extra something.....

Auburn has a graduate transfer O-lineman Brandon Council from Akron that started 24 consecutive games for the zips that may be able to give them a little intel 

What are your thoughts on Charlie Brewer at Utah who transferred from Baylor.   I think he will be outstanding.

@LonghornHoosier

 Thought I mentioned that but good call LH and Uni

Brewer could be great at Utah. Ludwig runs stuff that Brewer can nail down easily. Easy to see why Utes are getting attention

247 could do sooo much more for us with their xfer portal info but this is at least helpful .. 

https://247sports.com/LongFormArticle/College-football-transfer-portal-top-100-transfers-2021-season-Henry-Too-Too-Eric-Gray-Arik-Gilbert-167684946/#167684946_10

Auburn did themselves a favor w 7 of these top 150 xfers coming in late march or later.. unsure how many Phil is updated or for all of them .. that said, think the portal could be kinda dangerous to put too much stock in esp if were relying on all these xfers to show up and be these big contributors like they are experienced top 150 HS recruits ... it def wont be that .. also keep in mind Auburn lost quite a few before the spring ..  

Saw a bit of the spring game w Anthony Brown .. looked good to me vs duck D #1's 

Agree on Makenzie .. him and Norvell could be 2 peas in a pod .. I took a little stab at FSU+10 in the opener I got ND on my list of maybe find struggles this year .. we'll see if Coen pans out, things not bad w a 2K rusher he had a great comp % but passes were short and safe .. if still the same we'll see if they can put the long drives together .. think it could be trouble .. 

Feel good saying SMU won in the xfer portal before grabbing Oregon's top tackler .. 

@Bridge1

Teams kinda catching my eye right now.....

W.Kentucky

Texas Tech

Purdue

Ohio

Tough to get a read on Purdue .. seems like a few years now we've been waiting for them to do whatever it is they're supposed to do under Brohm ... each year they seem to have the hot under the radar team, had the good D in year 1 but that went away quick, offense really not done much of anything with some real star WR's .. need to fix 3 y/carry for 2 years now .. opp QB's tossing 65% completions, wouldn't say they played great opp QB's LY .. 5 sacks in 6 games .. they pick up the DC from Marshall and maybe some reason for optimism w that guy, real deal defense LY .. 

One way this could play out is see them surprise in the first 5 or 6 games .. unless Minny is surprise good its really just ND in the way and they'll struggle if Coen doesn't fit his billing .. won't say they'll beat Iowa but hawkeyes could very well struggle this year too if the OL/DL doesn't magically reload again .. Not impossible for them to go on an early run say 4-2 or 5-1 .. but if we see the Boilers haven't really solved their problems early on the tide will turn quickly either vs Iowa or Wisco and still have Neb, OSU, NU, Indy to go .. maybe another W vs MSU but after a hot start they could still be overrated as a fav for that one .. think the move is just see if they can overrate themselves early on .. def don't think they will underrate themselves lol well, pretty sure they won't.. 

@Bridge1

 I think you hit the nail on the head bro.... I think Purdue can start hot. It always seems “convenient” that a public darling will flop and the team getting the stick ends up suprising..... I wont get into the “its fixed” argumentative stuff 

BUT .... There may be something to be said about a team with HOPE vs one with EXPECTATIONS.... To me, it seems people placed too much expectations on those Purdue teams. Coach is legit and should inspire some hope/confidence but i think media and public were a little too quick to jump on that wagon. This year feels better with a lot of people asking questions and unsure.... It takes expectations out of the picture and they can just go out and play. Feels like a “buy low” situation right now and I think I like their chances in first few weeks

@Bridge1

 Are they gonna beat Ohio State?! Probably not.... But if that defense can get a kick, I dont think they will have trouble scoring and that will make them a pain in the ass for the Big10 big boyz

mmm haha yeah .. well if they get hot and are actually good and keep rollin thru that conf like Minny did the other year then Purdue could be one of the best rides in the park .. def don't want to be the guy to talk you into puss'in out of going on it lol .. I'll wait here tho, let me know how it is when you get down haha.. 

@Bridge1

 
The key is jumping off the train before it crashes 

Im only in one week at a time so my eyes are set on Oregon St.... Each week is its own animal and im not looking ahead brutha. One week at a time. 

like the picks, my dude! i like the thoughts and share much of the same. i wanted to play ttu win totals over but i'm not trying to lay the juice so i'm hoping they hit 5. was also thinking tcu could be a sleeper if dugan stopped making so many bad decisions under pressure. i took a flyer on unc to take the acc. i think that's my only future this year so far. good luck and see ya next month!

Good to see you ODB 

FSU makes me a little nervous. The strength of ND is in the trenches, especially defensive line. They will try to grind on FSU especially with, what I would call, a conservative game manager type QB in Coan. Im banking on Norvell to turn this thing around. If Milton is starting, I think he can get the ball out to the athletes in space. Heres Hoping.

Leans......

Texas Tech -2.5 vs Houston

No questions about talent in Houston. But I do question their game shape. So much of the talent red-shirted Holgy first year.... And then covid.... with cancellations, transfers, and more red-shirts. All that talent is still there but how much have they played together? How will Holgorsen get some chemistry? Im thinkin there may be some rust to shake off the first couple weeks. Just a hunch. Texas tech returns a lot on a sneaky decent defense. If Shough can get comfortable in the system, I think he could shine. 

Purdue -6.5 vs Oregon St

This feels like Brohm’s best team since year 1. Lotta hype around Purdue has quieted down now after 2 seasons of sub-par ball. With expectations now lowered, it feels like they can just ball out. WR still deep position and the defense will be better and more experienced. Oregon St seems like a feisty dog but i rate Big 10 much higher than Pac 12 atm. Beavers aint at home either.

Louisville.....

I feel there is something there. I see Ole Miss getting a LOT of love and with good reason..... But I see Louisville in a lot of upward trends. 

For example.... Cardinals outgained 9 of their 11 opponents, they were -12 turnovers (which should improve), and they lost some close games..... one score losses to Notre Dame, Boston College, Pitt, and Vtech suggests this team can compete. 

They are losing a lot of defensive production tho and this is where it gets hard to predict how they will perform. The ND game kinda stands out as they really played well vs one of best offensive lines in the country last year but losing all that defensive production hurts.  Overall, ill be looking at this line vs Ole Miss closely and might tease it

Boise St.....

2 seasons ago Boise went into FSU and crashed their season. This is a club that gets up for big games. I like the backfield with Bachmeier and Holani.... The secondary is always stacked with talent. I feel like they will be able to keep pace with UCF and Im liking them points. Nothing concrete yet.... just thinkin out loud at this point

I hear you...But, I think Mississippi is going to blow them out...

@LonghornHoosier

 It seems thats the prevailing theory. 

*Coan is good enough to win... But doesnt seem good enough to beat any elite defenses. Im Backing off my FSU+9.5 wager by taking ND -8.5.... After diving into this a little more, im uncomfortable depending on the reconstructed leg of Mckenzie milton. Because I know Kelly is just going to grind FSU. Coan wont be asked to do too much and even though I do expect FSU defense to improve this year, Im not sure they will be ready for a trenchfight with the irish. I trust Irish offensive line unit more than any other on the field to make holes for runners and hold pocket for Coan. Norvell may get results out of this FSU team, but im uncomfortable gambling on that in week 1

Navy +3 vs Marshall

2020 was a bad year for middies. So bad that they are 3-pt dogs to c-usa opps opening week. This a game Navy NEEDS. Their schedule is too tough to let this game slip. This team showed great improvement last 3 games last year and got game experience for the young QB room. With an entire off-season and regular contact again, I expect Middies to hit the ground running. Looking at that QB room, i like the athletes and their shifty ability. lotta question marks on offensive side of the ball but its really hard to do worse than last year and option offenses benefit from repetition. The guys are there, they just need to put it together. This team could be greatly improved and still not see a major jump in win column because of the schedule. But thats why this Marshall game stands out. This defense finished the season vs Memphis(8-3), Tulsa(6-3), and Army(9-3)and didnt allow more than 19 in any of those games. Thats something to build on vs a very green Marshall QB room