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ALL ABOARD the lindetrain - Week 5

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Posted: #1
Week 4: 9-4, +6.06 units
YTD: 28-20-1, +8.72 units
 
One hell of a week...could've been a lot better as I fell just short of a BIG payout on the Ball State ML, hit 4 of 5 dogs on a ML parlay, and got fucked twice with Colorado State and Oregon State.  I did catch a couple breaks with Oklahoma State and Toledo, so I can't really complain.
 
Onto Week 5...
 
Southern Miss (+10) at Boise State
Memphis (+2.5) at Arkansas State
West Virginia (-7.5) at South Florida
Duke (+21.5) at Miami
North Carolina (+20) at Virginia Tech
Akron (+14.5) at Connecticut
Indiana (+13) at Iowa
Mississippi State (+17.5) at South Carolina
Temple (+0.5) at Army
Air Force (+3.5) at Navy
Buffalo (+10.5) at Ball State
Northern Illinois (+1) at Central Michigan
Michigan (-16) at Northwestern
Syracuse (-1.5) at Miami OH
Utah State (+19) at Utah
California (+4.5) at Oregon
Alabama (-0.5) vs. Florida State
Ole Miss (+20) at Georgia
Auburn (+16.5) at Florida
Penn State (-3) at Illinois
Michigan State (+9) at Wisconsin
Iowa State (+17.5) at Nebraska
Kansas State (+15) at Texas
UNLV (+4.5) at Nevada
UTEP (-1.5) at SMU
Hawaii (-17.5) at Idaho
LSU (-34) at Tulane
Colorado State (+6.5) at TCU
Eastern Michigan (+19) at Vanderbilt
Western Michigan (+6) at Toledo
Kent State (+3.5) at Ohio
Oklahoma (-21.5) at Colorado
Baylor (+15.5) at Texas A&M
Pittsburgh (+8) at Virginia
East Carolina (+9) at Houston
UAB (+17) at Tulsa
Louisville (-8) at NC State
Clemson (-1.5) at Georgia Tech
Maryland (+13) at Rutgers
Ohio State (-19) at Minnesota
USC (-17) at Washington
Notre Dame (+21.5) at Purdue
BYU (+2) at New Mexico
Washington State (+1) at Arizona
Arizona State (-13) at Stanford
Cincinnati (-9) at San Diego State
North Texas (+28) at Arkansas
Louisiana Tech (+12) at Fresno State
UL Lafayette (+17.5) at Central Florida
Florida International (+6) at Middle Tennessee
Florida Atlantic (+20.5) at Kentucky
UL Monroe (+6.5) at Troy
 
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Posted: #2

Temple +7 (-115)

This line is just ridiculous to me...if I could've gotten it at the opening line it would've been my first 2-unit bet of the year.  This is not the same Owl team as last year, as they continue to prove every week.  Army has not shown me much at all so far and I don't think they should be laying more than a FG, if that, here...

 
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I agree with you, it looks good to me too... but I've decided to not violate my #1 rule again... DBOFMT  (Don't Bet On Fucking MAC Teams.) 

gl with yours, though. 
 
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Posted: #4
I am so mad at missing 9.5 that I have not bet on it yet.  GL this week linde.
 
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Posted: #5
bama over fsu, think they should be a 2 pt fav not 3 pt underdog, i already took the pts and will be ML too
 
i see u put bama -.5  so i think you should look at that game more as a possible play
 
 
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Posted: #6
lindetrain,
 
you the man bro...keep up the good work...
 
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Posted: #7
Nice work so far Linde, continued success this week
 
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Posted: #8
Lindetrain,
 
I only took the Ball St spread play last week, but had advocated the ML in some posts so I was pulling for the win SU for ya.
 
I've been on Temple all year, but I dont know what to make of Army.  Havent seen them play, but the box scores show that they covered the games against BC and Wake on the road.  This may be a case where like Temple, they are a better play as dogs than as favorites.
 
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Posted: #9
Lindetrain,
 
Whats the deal with UK RB's.  Only saw part of the game last week but it looked like Little & the back up were banged up?  I went with UK the last 3 weeks, but I think this week's number is too high.  Looking at taking the points with Fla Atl
 
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Posted: #10
Lindetrain.  Love your posts.  You are one of the handful of guys on this board that I read weekly.  I was just curious how you come up with your game lines? 
 
  this week!
 
 
 
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Posted: #11
I was with ya on Ball St.
 
Temple and Army are 2 of my "play" teams......and of course they are playing each other.....initial lean to Temple but I may sit it out.....or put them in a tease.
 
jp - I agree and am on Fla Atl this week
 
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Posted: #12
TP,
I'm not sure I would even take Temple in a spread play.  It would most likely be SU or not at all.  If they lose they could lose by 21+.  Not sure why, its just how it is with Temple. 
 
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Posted: #13
GL Lindy
 
I am jumping on the following early:
 
Temple +7 (-120)
Southern Miss +10.5
Indiana +11.5
Colorado +11.5
 
Keep up the good work!
 
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Posted: #14
GL Lindy
 
I am jumping on the following early:
 
Temple +7 (-120)
Southern Miss +10.5
Indiana +11.5
Colorado State +11.5
 
Keep up the good work!
 
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Posted: #15
Quote Originally Posted by jp1lsu:

Lindetrain,
 
Whats the deal with UK RB's.  Only saw part of the game last week but it looked like Little & the back up were banged up?  I went with UK the last 3 weeks, but I think this week's number is too high.  Looking at taking the points with Fla Atl


I am not 100% certain what is going on, but I'm pretty sure backup Tony Dixon is still healthy.  True freshman Derrick Locke looked great in Fayetteville though, and I could see him getting some PT and making an impact.  One thing is for sure - I really don't see any way to fade this UK team right now.  They are playing outstanding and it's hard to envision much of a letdown with all the buzz surrounding the program.
 
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Posted: #16
Quote Originally Posted by hoosierdaddy:

Lindetrain.  Love your posts.  You are one of the handful of guys on this board that I read weekly.  I was just curious how you come up with your game lines? 
 
  this week!
 
 


I made my own power ratings over the summer - basically rated each team by giving each position a rating.  I update those every Sunday to get my numbers.
 
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Posted: #17
Quote Originally Posted by GameHunter:

GL Lindy
 
I am jumping on the following early:
 
Temple +7 (-120)
Southern Miss +10.5
Indiana +11.5
Colorado +11.5
 
Keep up the good work!


Can't say I disagree with any of them, and I'll probably be on CSU with you...books just refuse to accept the fact this isn't the same TCU team as year's past.  GL this Saturday...
 
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Posted: #18
Linde,
 
 
nice ticket last week.  Could of been one better without ND but ND actually looked slightly better than awful last week - still going 3-9 if they are lucky.
 
I would look at the Illini/PSU game.  PSU is coming off a big let down after discovering they aren't going to win the Big Ten.  Further, Morelli has never won a road football game at Penn St.
 
 
 
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Posted: #19
Initial thoughts:
 
Arkansas State looks appealing, as some other guys have mentioned around here.  They're playing extremely well right now, and Memphis is just embarrassing themselves.  This game definitely has to mean a lot to the boys from the SBC who would probably like to earn a little respect and catch some people's eyes with a big win over a C-USA school.
 
Duke is really starting to come around, nearly winning two weeks in a row (scary).  They go down to Miami and face a team they almost beat last year, who might take them a little lightly considering they just whipped up on A&M and it is Duke.  Could the Blue Devils be joining Temple alongside the cover machines this year?
 
Akron looks interesting in what is a pretty bad spot for UConn.  They play hard and have actually looked pretty good lately.  It's impressive how they beat Kent State when looking at the stats they probably should've lost.
 
I'm going to be on Buffalo as I mentioned in another thread.  How is Ball State mentally prepared for this game?  They blew numerous opportunities to pick up their biggest win in school history last week.  How does that not eat at them?  That defense is horrendous, so catching a couple scores with a team who has proven they can put up some points looks good.  And it's the MAC.
 
A lot of people have taken note of Alabama potentially being worn out for this Florida State game, but I really think they're the better team and unlike FSU have been able to really find their identity.  The Noles have only played 3 games and have been unimpressive in all 3, so I have to wonder if they have really found themselves - a bye week is not what I think they needed after a couple lackluster performances.  There are also some distractions for FSU with two guys getting arrested, including a starting LB in Hayes.  This is just a case where Alabama has actually played a few tough games and knows how to win/compete, where Florida State has been in sleep mode for almost a month.  I'm not sure if everyone would agree with me, but I'll take Saban in this matchup as well.
 
Auburn is now getting to the point where they become a good bet.  Got some confidence last week, and now play the Gators who have the big LSU showdown on deck.  Can they keep it close?  This one is on my radar.
 
I think Illinois probably beats Penn State after PSU's Big 10 hopes pretty much got shattered last week.  Big game for that Illinois program and they have the players to win this one.
 
Baylor should keep it close in College Station, like they usually do.  They've reeled off 3 straight and as always, are best early on in the year.  You have to think they're playing with some confidence and Syzmanski is coming around.  I wonder how A&M feels about this game (and season) after getting thrashed last week.  Really early start too (11:30 local time) which I personally don't think bodes well for the big fave.
 
Georgia Tech is going to beat Clemson with or without Choice IMO.  The Tigers have a big showdown with Va Tech on deck and probably think they've got this game considering they're rolling and the Jackets are struggling.  I expect Bowden's bunch to take this game very lightly and the desperate GT team goes out and stops the bleeding.
 
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Posted: #20
Linde,
With you on most of your leans.  Ball St. is a bit confusing.  I've been on them the last 3 weeks and they have been 3-0 ATS with 1 win SU as a dog.  This is still the same team that lost SU to MOH at home in week 1.  I know a lot of people thought that they wouldn't show up after the big win against Navy.  Their fighting for a bowl and a shot at winning the conference, so I dont see them not being ready. 
I do worry about their defense, so giving more than 2 td's isnt of any interest to me. 
 
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Posted: #21
Quote Originally Posted by lindetrain:

Initial thoughts:
 
Arkansas State looks appealing, as some other guys have mentioned around here.  They're playing extremely well right now, and Memphis is just embarrassing themselves.  This game definitely has to mean a lot to the boys from the SBC who would probably like to earn a little respect and catch some people's eyes with a big win over a C-USA school.
 
Duke is really starting to come around, nearly winning two weeks in a row (scary).  They go down to Miami and face a team they almost beat last year, who might take them a little lightly considering they just whipped up on A&M and it is Duke.  Could the Blue Devils be joining Temple alongside the cover machines this year?
 
Akron looks interesting in what is a pretty bad spot for UConn.  They play hard and have actually looked pretty good lately.  It's impressive how they beat Kent State when looking at the stats they probably should've lost.
 
I'm going to be on Buffalo as I mentioned in another thread.  How is Ball State mentally prepared for this game?  They blew numerous opportunities to pick up their biggest win in school history last week.  How does that not eat at them?  That defense is horrendous, so catching a couple scores with a team who has proven they can put up some points looks good.  And it's the MAC.
 
A lot of people have taken note of Alabama potentially being worn out for this Florida State game, but I really think they're the better team and unlike FSU have been able to really find their identity.  The Noles have only played 3 games and have been unimpressive in all 3, so I have to wonder if they have really found themselves - a bye week is not what I think they needed after a couple lackluster performances.  There are also some distractions for FSU with two guys getting arrested, including a starting LB in Hayes.  This is just a case where Alabama has actually played a few tough games and knows how to win/compete, where Florida State has been in sleep mode for almost a month.  I'm not sure if everyone would agree with me, but I'll take Saban in this matchup as well.
 
Auburn is now getting to the point where they become a good bet.  Got some confidence last week, and now play the Gators who have the big LSU showdown on deck.  Can they keep it close?  This one is on my radar.
 
I think Illinois probably beats Penn State after PSU's Big 10 hopes pretty much got shattered last week.  Big game for that Illinois program and they have the players to win this one.
 
Baylor should keep it close in College Station, like they usually do.  They've reeled off 3 straight and as always, are best early on in the year.  You have to think they're playing with some confidence and Syzmanski is coming around.  I wonder how A&M feels about this game (and season) after getting thrashed last week.  Really early start too (11:30 local time) which I personally don't think bodes well for the big fave.
 
Georgia Tech is going to beat Clemson with or without Choice IMO.  The Tigers have a big showdown with Va Tech on deck and probably think they've got this game considering they're rolling and the Jackets are struggling.  I expect Bowden's bunch to take this game very lightly and the desperate GT team goes out and stops the bleeding.

Clemson is not taking this game lightly.... I live a mile from the stadium and GT always gives us fits. They will go to Atlanta with their attention on GT. I talked to one of the coaches at the gym today and they are focused! Just a heads up.

 
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Posted: #22
Quote Originally Posted by GGH1969:

Clemson is not taking this game lightly.... I live a mile from the stadium and GT always gives us fits. They will go to Atlanta with their attention on GT. I talked to one of the coaches at the gym today and they are focused! Just a heads up.

I respect your opinion, but what do you think the coach is going to tell you?  "Ahhh, we ain't really worried about this one..."

 
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Posted: #23
Also like Illinois, GT, Bama and Auburn.

How about a fade against your 'Cats? Tough to put together 3 solid games plus Rusty can move the ball.
 
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Posted: #24
Southern Miss +10 (+100)
 
I think it's becoming pretty evident this Boise State team doesn't compare to the last few years, as they really struggled against Washington and weren't overwhelming against Wyoming.  This may be the best team they've faced yet, and with them being at home I think they're liable to underestimate the difficulty of this game.  I think Southern Miss is definitely the best team in the C-USA (impressive road win last week), and this could be a nice showcase for them.  Fletcher should have some success on the ground.
 
 
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Posted: #25
lindetrain,
 
agree with your thoughts on Duke and Baylor...
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