There is always a "reason" for the squares to bet the public side.
Some team always has a "powerful run game" or "unbreakable defense" or 1000 other reasons to bet on the public side. The public is overwhelmingly on Arkansas.
I think TTU has about a 60% chance of covering based on what happens in these kinds of games. I am only using WVA / TTU because it is a convenient example. Many others (BYU/Texas last year also comes to mind - BYU was not going to be able to handle the Texas speed advantage. BYU blew them off the field with 90% of the money on Texas).
Quote: Originally Posted by shiek] Combato. Did west va have the dominant o line/running game ark has?? How did kstate and ok state fair in Lubbock recently. Hope I'm wrong but I see my Raiders having difficulty w hogs this weekend [/Quote]
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There is always a "reason" for the squares to bet the public side.
Some team always has a "powerful run game" or "unbreakable defense" or 1000 other reasons to bet on the public side. The public is overwhelmingly on Arkansas.
I think TTU has about a 60% chance of covering based on what happens in these kinds of games. I am only using WVA / TTU because it is a convenient example. Many others (BYU/Texas last year also comes to mind - BYU was not going to be able to handle the Texas speed advantage. BYU blew them off the field with 90% of the money on Texas).
Quote: Originally Posted by shiek] Combato. Did west va have the dominant o line/running game ark has?? How did kstate and ok state fair in Lubbock recently. Hope I'm wrong but I see my Raiders having difficulty w hogs this weekend [/Quote]
The Bet OnLine openers are for extremely small limits and are not where big players make opening bets.
Quote Originally Posted by whyisit:
Exactly sheik. Relying on a road grading offensive line and 3 outstanding running backs is completely different from being dependent on a spread passing attack. Tech's defense is built to defend Big 12 offenses as opposed to smash mouth football. Arkansas' running game was very effective for a half at Auburn and that game was much closer than the final score would suggest(pick 6 changed the game and forced the hogs to play from behind and lengthy weather delay also didn't do them any favors). Just saying this is not their first venture into hostile territory this year and they showed me something on the plains. Their qb looks to have improved and I don't see how Tech slows them down.
Kingsbury may be pretty, but his team's performance in the first two games has been anything but. UTEP and Central Arkansas ran the ball successfully against them(over 4 ypc) and they also accumulated 25 penalties in those games. They barely survived in those two close games and I don't see how they stop a hogs rushing attack that put up 150 first half yards at Auburn and is averaging almost 10 ypc on the season(even though Nichols St is terrible). Tech is young on defense and their qb play has been shaky at best so far.
The only thing that scares me here is the line. Opened up at Tech-4.5 and I haven't seen much support for them at all. Seems like a total mismatch to me. When I first saw the line I loved Arkansas-woke up the next day and saw that everybody else loved them too-scary. Only angle I see in this # being what it is would be Arkansas has lost 10 of last 11 games and now on the road again. They seem vastly improved though and with their upcoming schedule they need to win this one. Could be similar to a horse racing angle-long time maiden gets first win and lightbulb goes on. Can't see hogs not winning this by at least a touchdown on paper, but something about this game seems fishy. Good luck!
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5 Dimes opened the line at -1. Went to -2.
The Bet OnLine openers are for extremely small limits and are not where big players make opening bets.
Quote Originally Posted by whyisit:
Exactly sheik. Relying on a road grading offensive line and 3 outstanding running backs is completely different from being dependent on a spread passing attack. Tech's defense is built to defend Big 12 offenses as opposed to smash mouth football. Arkansas' running game was very effective for a half at Auburn and that game was much closer than the final score would suggest(pick 6 changed the game and forced the hogs to play from behind and lengthy weather delay also didn't do them any favors). Just saying this is not their first venture into hostile territory this year and they showed me something on the plains. Their qb looks to have improved and I don't see how Tech slows them down.
Kingsbury may be pretty, but his team's performance in the first two games has been anything but. UTEP and Central Arkansas ran the ball successfully against them(over 4 ypc) and they also accumulated 25 penalties in those games. They barely survived in those two close games and I don't see how they stop a hogs rushing attack that put up 150 first half yards at Auburn and is averaging almost 10 ypc on the season(even though Nichols St is terrible). Tech is young on defense and their qb play has been shaky at best so far.
The only thing that scares me here is the line. Opened up at Tech-4.5 and I haven't seen much support for them at all. Seems like a total mismatch to me. When I first saw the line I loved Arkansas-woke up the next day and saw that everybody else loved them too-scary. Only angle I see in this # being what it is would be Arkansas has lost 10 of last 11 games and now on the road again. They seem vastly improved though and with their upcoming schedule they need to win this one. Could be similar to a horse racing angle-long time maiden gets first win and lightbulb goes on. Can't see hogs not winning this by at least a touchdown on paper, but something about this game seems fishy. Good luck!
I think we are saying the same thing here Combato. No secret that Arkansas has an outstanding rushing attack and that Tech has struggled defensively against weak opposition. Why is tech favored here? No way it can be based on anything that has happened on the field in 2014, so why? Is it based on Arkansas being bad last year and losing 10 in a row until blitzing Cupcake U last week combined with Tech showing more recent success and being at home? That is all I can figure, but the matchups here scream Arkansas and I place greater emphasis on that than anything else. Good luck!
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I think we are saying the same thing here Combato. No secret that Arkansas has an outstanding rushing attack and that Tech has struggled defensively against weak opposition. Why is tech favored here? No way it can be based on anything that has happened on the field in 2014, so why? Is it based on Arkansas being bad last year and losing 10 in a row until blitzing Cupcake U last week combined with Tech showing more recent success and being at home? That is all I can figure, but the matchups here scream Arkansas and I place greater emphasis on that than anything else. Good luck!
One other important point - Is anyone asking the key question which is "Why is Texas Tech favored in a game that clearly looks like they will lose and probably by a large margin?
I know the answer - It is because linemakers are stupid and don't know what they are doing. The folks here on Covers are much sharper than the linemakers. The linemakers are so stupid they don't know that TTU is going to get roadgraded by Arkansas and lose. How stupid they must be to not see the obvious but Vegas always makes it so easy for all the squares to make money betting games like Ark +2 vs TTU.
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One other important point - Is anyone asking the key question which is "Why is Texas Tech favored in a game that clearly looks like they will lose and probably by a large margin?
I know the answer - It is because linemakers are stupid and don't know what they are doing. The folks here on Covers are much sharper than the linemakers. The linemakers are so stupid they don't know that TTU is going to get roadgraded by Arkansas and lose. How stupid they must be to not see the obvious but Vegas always makes it so easy for all the squares to make money betting games like Ark +2 vs TTU.
One other important point - Is anyone asking the key question which is "Why is Texas Tech favored in a game that clearly looks like they will lose and probably by a large margin?
I know the answer - It is because linemakers are stupid and don't know what they are doing. The folks here on Covers are much sharper than the linemakers. The linemakers are so stupid they don't know that TTU is going to get roadgraded by Arkansas and lose. How stupid they must be to not see the obvious but Vegas always makes it so easy for all the squares to make money betting games like Ark +2 vs TTU.
You can make this argument for EVERY favorite on the board. So last week you were saying that "Va Tech cannot go to OSU and win because the linesmakers have OSU as an 11 point favorite, and they are smarter than you."????
Who said it was "clear" that Tech would lose, let alone by a "large margin"????
So you are just going to ignore the match ups on the field and say Tech wins because covers "clowns" like Arky and the oddsmakers are smarter?? What kind of logic is that?
If other people are over-hyping Arkansas and predicting a blow out win, so be it, I haven't seen it for the most part. Tech could surely win this game. Arkansas is STILL Arkansas, and Tech is at home and maybe they'll turn things around. Nothing is certain. But based on what I have seen the first two weeks, this is a team I think Arkansas can beat, and I'm getting 2.5 points to boot.
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Quote Originally Posted by combato:
One other important point - Is anyone asking the key question which is "Why is Texas Tech favored in a game that clearly looks like they will lose and probably by a large margin?
I know the answer - It is because linemakers are stupid and don't know what they are doing. The folks here on Covers are much sharper than the linemakers. The linemakers are so stupid they don't know that TTU is going to get roadgraded by Arkansas and lose. How stupid they must be to not see the obvious but Vegas always makes it so easy for all the squares to make money betting games like Ark +2 vs TTU.
You can make this argument for EVERY favorite on the board. So last week you were saying that "Va Tech cannot go to OSU and win because the linesmakers have OSU as an 11 point favorite, and they are smarter than you."????
Who said it was "clear" that Tech would lose, let alone by a "large margin"????
So you are just going to ignore the match ups on the field and say Tech wins because covers "clowns" like Arky and the oddsmakers are smarter?? What kind of logic is that?
If other people are over-hyping Arkansas and predicting a blow out win, so be it, I haven't seen it for the most part. Tech could surely win this game. Arkansas is STILL Arkansas, and Tech is at home and maybe they'll turn things around. Nothing is certain. But based on what I have seen the first two weeks, this is a team I think Arkansas can beat, and I'm getting 2.5 points to boot.
One other important point - Is anyone asking the key question which is "Why is Texas Tech favored in a game that clearly looks like they will lose and probably by a large margin?
I know the answer - It is because linemakers are stupid and don't know what they are doing. The folks here on Covers are much sharper than the linemakers. The linemakers are so stupid they don't know that TTU is going to get roadgraded by Arkansas and lose. How stupid they must be to not see the obvious but Vegas always makes it so easy for all the squares to make money betting games like Ark +2 vs TTU.
According to this thought process, I suppose we should simply subscribe to the George Costanza method of handicapping-analyze the matchups and trends and upon completion simply take the opposite side of what the data suggests since the oddsmakers are trying to trick us on every game. The line and lack of movement does throw up a red flag though, but this isn't exactly a marquee matchup like last week's Oregon-MSU game and I prefer to base my plays on what I know and have seen with my eyes. I used to look at websites with % of money on each side and follow reverse line movement and all kinds of other mumbo-jumbo, but have had much more success by placing less emphasis on that type of info and a much greater emphasis on players/scheme, situation etc. Good luck!
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Quote Originally Posted by combato:
One other important point - Is anyone asking the key question which is "Why is Texas Tech favored in a game that clearly looks like they will lose and probably by a large margin?
I know the answer - It is because linemakers are stupid and don't know what they are doing. The folks here on Covers are much sharper than the linemakers. The linemakers are so stupid they don't know that TTU is going to get roadgraded by Arkansas and lose. How stupid they must be to not see the obvious but Vegas always makes it so easy for all the squares to make money betting games like Ark +2 vs TTU.
According to this thought process, I suppose we should simply subscribe to the George Costanza method of handicapping-analyze the matchups and trends and upon completion simply take the opposite side of what the data suggests since the oddsmakers are trying to trick us on every game. The line and lack of movement does throw up a red flag though, but this isn't exactly a marquee matchup like last week's Oregon-MSU game and I prefer to base my plays on what I know and have seen with my eyes. I used to look at websites with % of money on each side and follow reverse line movement and all kinds of other mumbo-jumbo, but have had much more success by placing less emphasis on that type of info and a much greater emphasis on players/scheme, situation etc. Good luck!
One other important point - Is anyone asking the key question which is "Why is Texas Tech favored in a game that clearly looks like they will lose and probably by a large margin?
I know the answer - It is because linemakers are stupid and don't know what they are doing. The folks here on Covers are much sharper than the linemakers. The linemakers are so stupid they don't know that TTU is going to get roadgraded by Arkansas and lose. How stupid they must be to not see the obvious but Vegas always makes it so easy for all the squares to make money betting games like Ark +2 vs TTU.
Ha! You give Vegas WAY too much credit. There were countless times last year where they were way off on their lines. And the public quickly corrected them. I'm not saying either way how this game is going to go, but I saw Texas Tech play last week and they were awful. I saw them play the week before and they were awful. My eyes tell me they just aren't a very good team right now. The big question to figure out is how good are the Hogs right now based on one game against Auburn?
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Quote Originally Posted by combato:
One other important point - Is anyone asking the key question which is "Why is Texas Tech favored in a game that clearly looks like they will lose and probably by a large margin?
I know the answer - It is because linemakers are stupid and don't know what they are doing. The folks here on Covers are much sharper than the linemakers. The linemakers are so stupid they don't know that TTU is going to get roadgraded by Arkansas and lose. How stupid they must be to not see the obvious but Vegas always makes it so easy for all the squares to make money betting games like Ark +2 vs TTU.
Ha! You give Vegas WAY too much credit. There were countless times last year where they were way off on their lines. And the public quickly corrected them. I'm not saying either way how this game is going to go, but I saw Texas Tech play last week and they were awful. I saw them play the week before and they were awful. My eyes tell me they just aren't a very good team right now. The big question to figure out is how good are the Hogs right now based on one game against Auburn?
Ha! You give Vegas WAY too much credit. There were countless times last year where they were way off on their lines. And the public quickly corrected them. I'm not saying either way how this game is going to go, but I saw Texas Tech play last week and they were awful. I saw them play the week before and they were awful. My eyes tell me they just aren't a very good team right now. The big question to figure out is how good are the Hogs right now based on one game against Auburn?
against auburns backup qb for a large percentage of the game
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Quote Originally Posted by DrStrangelove:
Ha! You give Vegas WAY too much credit. There were countless times last year where they were way off on their lines. And the public quickly corrected them. I'm not saying either way how this game is going to go, but I saw Texas Tech play last week and they were awful. I saw them play the week before and they were awful. My eyes tell me they just aren't a very good team right now. The big question to figure out is how good are the Hogs right now based on one game against Auburn?
against auburns backup qb for a large percentage of the game
You guys here on Covers are the public. TTU can lose big of course. But I estimate TTU has a nearly a 60% chance to win and cover this game based on similar situations.
The day you realized you are part of the public is the day you will finally start to win some money. 19 - 9 in Covers CFB contest. 7 -2 NFl contest. Just for the record
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You guys here on Covers are the public. TTU can lose big of course. But I estimate TTU has a nearly a 60% chance to win and cover this game based on similar situations.
The day you realized you are part of the public is the day you will finally start to win some money. 19 - 9 in Covers CFB contest. 7 -2 NFl contest. Just for the record
You guys here on Covers are the public. TTU can lose big of course. But I estimate TTU has a nearly a 60% chance to win and cover this game based on similar situations.
The day you realized you are part of the public is the day you will finally start to win some money. 19 - 9 in Covers CFB contest. 7 -2 NFl contest. Just for the record
We are all part of the "public." Public wins sometimes too or no one would play. When I see a line that looks too good to be true I will definitely dig a little deeper than normal and test the water a bit rather than diving in head first, but sometimes the end result is a play on the "public" side. Also, I would rather invest my money on something I have developed an opinion on through research and watching games rather than basing plays on money % on a website that may or may not be reliable or judging public opinion from a small sample size such as this forum and then fading it. I come to this website to find info -whether it be an opposing or supporting point of view- to arm me with as much knowledge as possible before I make a play, so I appreciate your input. Good luck!
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Quote Originally Posted by combato:
You guys here on Covers are the public. TTU can lose big of course. But I estimate TTU has a nearly a 60% chance to win and cover this game based on similar situations.
The day you realized you are part of the public is the day you will finally start to win some money. 19 - 9 in Covers CFB contest. 7 -2 NFl contest. Just for the record
We are all part of the "public." Public wins sometimes too or no one would play. When I see a line that looks too good to be true I will definitely dig a little deeper than normal and test the water a bit rather than diving in head first, but sometimes the end result is a play on the "public" side. Also, I would rather invest my money on something I have developed an opinion on through research and watching games rather than basing plays on money % on a website that may or may not be reliable or judging public opinion from a small sample size such as this forum and then fading it. I come to this website to find info -whether it be an opposing or supporting point of view- to arm me with as much knowledge as possible before I make a play, so I appreciate your input. Good luck!
Quit insulting each other like children and talk football.
I like Arkansas money line in this spot. And I hope one of those fat 320 pound Arkansas O-lineman accidentally on purpose squashes that TT Coach Kingsbury. He looks like a pimp.
No, that isn't talking football either. Arkansas is getting their SEC shite together again meanwhile TT is giving up over 30 points a game to Central Arkansas and UTEP. Gimme dat Arky money line.
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Quit insulting each other like children and talk football.
I like Arkansas money line in this spot. And I hope one of those fat 320 pound Arkansas O-lineman accidentally on purpose squashes that TT Coach Kingsbury. He looks like a pimp.
No, that isn't talking football either. Arkansas is getting their SEC shite together again meanwhile TT is giving up over 30 points a game to Central Arkansas and UTEP. Gimme dat Arky money line.
Ark easily my dog says any idiot should figure that out!!!
My dog says if you knew anything about football and watched ark vs aub that aub back up is a better passing qb than the running starter ever thought about being!! Ark is an SEC team and not some podunk big 12 puzzy wannabeee!!! Ark been in alot of stadiums more hostile than TT and played sh it loads better teams than TT!!! ARK more physical and will impose their will on TT!!
This IDIOT above thinks thats square or public or some other DUMB BULL SH IT but its actually FACTS!!!
He is an absolute IDIOT!!! You take this IDIOTS picks and GO AGAINST EVERYTIME!!
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Ark easily my dog says any idiot should figure that out!!!
My dog says if you knew anything about football and watched ark vs aub that aub back up is a better passing qb than the running starter ever thought about being!! Ark is an SEC team and not some podunk big 12 puzzy wannabeee!!! Ark been in alot of stadiums more hostile than TT and played sh it loads better teams than TT!!! ARK more physical and will impose their will on TT!!
This IDIOT above thinks thats square or public or some other DUMB BULL SH IT but its actually FACTS!!!
He is an absolute IDIOT!!! You take this IDIOTS picks and GO AGAINST EVERYTIME!!
First glance, blow out time in Lubbock. Arkansas will run all over Tech and win by 21. To much power up front and Tech has horrible linebackers and DL.
Look deeper and you will see Tech's key nose tackle was hurt on 5th play of 1st game. 375 lbs of beef that will be back this week. Will it matter. A little but Tech still gets run over.
Arkansas can't cover for garbage. Tech may score at will and hasn't shown anything the first 2 games. I believe coaching staff has been game planning all summer for this game and overlooked first two. Who thought Tech would like up ASU. It happens.
Combat is right about Lubbock and the Auburn backup QB is legit. Dude would be starting on 98% of the teams this year. Just stuck behind a stud.
Still think Arky wins but warning not to go too crazy.
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I'm a Tech fan so take this for what it's worth.
First glance, blow out time in Lubbock. Arkansas will run all over Tech and win by 21. To much power up front and Tech has horrible linebackers and DL.
Look deeper and you will see Tech's key nose tackle was hurt on 5th play of 1st game. 375 lbs of beef that will be back this week. Will it matter. A little but Tech still gets run over.
Arkansas can't cover for garbage. Tech may score at will and hasn't shown anything the first 2 games. I believe coaching staff has been game planning all summer for this game and overlooked first two. Who thought Tech would like up ASU. It happens.
Combat is right about Lubbock and the Auburn backup QB is legit. Dude would be starting on 98% of the teams this year. Just stuck behind a stud.
Still think Arky wins but warning not to go too crazy.
I understand people's point of view. It is unimaginable. But that is exactly why Texas Tech has one of the biggest home field advantages. Teams just don't get up to play there and can't get prepared for what they have to face. This is not a mismatch, Tech is favored.
Bret Beliema couldn't find Lubbock, Texas on a map. He doesn't have the slightest clue about playing there. And it doesn't matter because of the difference in intensity levels of the two teams.
But Arkansas could roadgrade them. Don't go betting too much on it. Lots of lost bets on the Texas Panhandle.
If Texas T is so good at home, how did Central Arkansas roll 35 points on them and only loose by 7. And UTEP rolled 26 points on that TT defense.,to only loose by 4. The spreads were 29 and 20. Texas T defense gave up an average 30.5 points per game last season,now they only are returning 4 starters on defense.
I'll be on Arkansas +2 and ML
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Quote Originally Posted by HypoHandi:
I understand people's point of view. It is unimaginable. But that is exactly why Texas Tech has one of the biggest home field advantages. Teams just don't get up to play there and can't get prepared for what they have to face. This is not a mismatch, Tech is favored.
Bret Beliema couldn't find Lubbock, Texas on a map. He doesn't have the slightest clue about playing there. And it doesn't matter because of the difference in intensity levels of the two teams.
But Arkansas could roadgrade them. Don't go betting too much on it. Lots of lost bets on the Texas Panhandle.
If Texas T is so good at home, how did Central Arkansas roll 35 points on them and only loose by 7. And UTEP rolled 26 points on that TT defense.,to only loose by 4. The spreads were 29 and 20. Texas T defense gave up an average 30.5 points per game last season,now they only are returning 4 starters on defense.
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