ARKANSAS STATE + 19 1/2 will COVER EASILY

We are going to hit 70% ATS or better again this year and here is the first play.

 

Arkansas State will have an easy time covering this outragous line. The line on this game should be closer to 6 points. This is just another one of those spots where a lot of people will jump on Illinios at any price simply because they are the better known school. Thus we get an outrageous spread that Illinios has pretty much no chance of covering.

Arkansas State is bringing back all the important pieces from on offense that scored 30 points a game last year. They put up 24 points or more against every opponent last year except Navy who they scored 19 off of.

The  Red Wolves scored 26 points against Auburn, 24 Against Louisville, 34 against Indiana, and 19 against a very good Navy defense. So they didnt just score against Sun Belt competition. They scored against everyone they played.

The Red Wolves bring back QB Ryan Aplin who threw for 3000 yards last year and their 2 best wide recievers in Taylor Stockemer and Allen Muse, who both put up a lot of YAC last year to average over 15 yards per reception.

The Red Devils also bring back a lot of talent on the O line so Aplin will be well protected again this year. The defense also brings back 7 starters so we will see a very good improvement on the Ark State defense.

On the other side, Illinios lost a great deal from their already suspect defense. The Illini gave up an incredible 171 points in their last 5 games which averages over 34 per game. In addition, they lost their 2 best defensive players in DT Corey Liuget and MLB Martez Wilson.

This Illini defense is going to be very weak and we have an Arkansas State offense that put points up against everyone last year and they will do the same against Illinios. I fully expect Arkansas State to put up 25 minimum, and more likely they will score 30-34 points. That in itself will be enough to prevent Illinios from covering this 19 1/2 point spread.

This will be a close game throughout and if the Red Wolves can get a break or two they will win this game straight up. Absent a big break somewhere, they will hang close but lose by less than a TD. However the line is way too high here and Illinios will not come close to covering this spread.

Play #1  -- Arkansas State + 19 1/2

Record 0-0

 

who is we? are you a group of cappers? 

Who are the Red Devils? 

take the over

 

maybe not a bad idea but very biased report.....

red devils D bring back 7 starters from a D giving up 31 points and 436 yards/game.....and lose their entire OL mostly (lose 112 starts)
also ....while they will run the same offense (new HC Freeze was OC LY)....defense will be entirely new....which means week 1 many will still be thinking....instead of reacting...> D is complicated /multiple fronts.....3-3-5 > 4-2-5 > 4>3 designed to confuse....

I might stay away....but based on Zook's poor record in this spot....and Ark St's likely ability to move it  ....not bad...value here is definitely with those dirty red devils....OVER...not bad recommendation ...

Red Devils or Red Wolves

Good analysis bookie assasin

 

yeah I agree that illinios will probably be able to move the ball as well and the over may well be a good play. I just dont like to deal with totals that much, and I just stick to one side of a play. A lot of times, I will like a side and take the over too and end up going 1-1. I would expect a high scoring game like you say.

I know Ark States D may not be that great but Illinios offense isnt that great and I think Ark State will be able to hang with them, scoring as much as Illinios does. If Ark State had a better D, I would like the ML. The way it is, I just love that + 19 1/2, but I think youre right about the over too.

The problem with Arky State is that they throw the ball on just about every down. QB takes a beating and an already shakey defense is on the field for a long time. Agree that the over might be the best play here.

other than the fact that you dont even know the name of the team..."red devils"??   maybe you will get lucky and get a back door cover here newbie.

Thanks for the anlysis, and good luck. 

 

 

 I'm leaning towards the Red Indian Devil Wolves as well.   

Like those Dirty Red Devils the more I look into this 70P...
     * dismissed this at 1st because of new coach + major OL ????

Devils run D stats maybe skewed slightly because they had Auburn and Navy  ......and with new hurry up O....D was on the field too long...> which may be a concern here ......as Illinois #10 in TOP...ASU was #117...but should do better this year as they get more accustomed to the pace 
     * Devils add a Texas transfer at nose (325lb+ Derek Johnson)...to go with Aggie transfer DE Joiner.....front seven not bad....and have the POTENTIAL.....to slow Illini down

Also......Illini lose their stud DT and more (3 guys from front 7 drafted).... Devils bring in 4 JUCO OL with some cred.....as you stated ...protected well LY actually...only 23 sacks allowed in 435 attempts.....they get rid of ball quickly so less pressure on the new guys......I wouldn't expect Illini to bring much heat here (only 23 sacks LY with Liuget @ Wilson)...> so OL maybe just fine....?
       *Devils also add that knucklehead WR Josh Jarboe (OU > Troy)
Forgot too ....those dirty devils .....have a history of doing well to great in these games.....
2007      almost beat Texas (L21-13...+39)
2008      did beat A&M 18-14 (+19)
2009     almost beat Iowa (L24-21...+21)
2010      almost beat Indiana (L36-34...+10)
     *covered LY vs Auburn (L 52-26...+31)....no cover at Nebraska in 2009 (L 38-9...+21)....but Devils had Troy on deck

Zookster is 1-6 ATS in these games last 4 yrs or so ....(non-conference favorite).....only cover LY vs S Illinois....this one should be fairly close if dirty Devil D shows up....remember also the Illini have NO idea at this point what they're gonna see from Ark St  defensively...

SO....I agree 70P....I like the Devils here.....+20' at 5 Dimes last time I checked ......gonna check previous movement and > wait ...or buy the hook 
thanks for recommendation....
 

forgot...any play on dirty Devils should come with knowledge that if QB Aplin goes down .........really no back-up.....as Phillip Butterfield (HC Freeze said could challenge) got hurt Sat and is OFY 

Funny who someone who JUST Joined

Went 70% last year

SAF

yet another clown joins the board.....how close does one actually follow college football if they dont even know the name of the team that they are writing about??  (RED DEVILS)

what is the over/under on the week where this clown will fail as 99% of those who claim to be a 70% capper, and we will never see them again....

i say it is WEEK 2

"We" refers to him and his 25 other SAFs.

OR....maybe the greatness.....of the one and only BIG DADDY....has returned....talking of WE...and huge wagering mafia like cartels....

Going Illinois large thanks to this post. 

ANYONE FIGURE OUT WHO THE "RED DEVILS" ARE YET??

Holy shit you like to beat dead horses!

First it was hugeballz now this....The guy said Red Wolves twice in his write up before his mistake.  I admit I make a ton of mistakes  in my write ups too.

Now if you bash for the 70% claim then I got your back

I hate to burst your bubble, but 70% will never happen unless you only make 10 picks total for the season and you have the coin flip working for ya because logic and prophet-like judgement won't do it. 

As mentioned, 70% wn't happen but I do like your play.  Hope ists a good start.

Malebbc,

I hear you. There are so many unknowns and things that happen during a game that noone could have forseen. I hear you on that. We dont play 10 games a week like a lot of people who just need action.

It will probably be 15-20 games, maybe less. Just depends on how many great numbers are available during the season.

But I am sure you will agree with me. Sometimes they post stupid numbers because much of the betting public wont really deeply cap a game, they will just pick a side.

You get a game like this. A lot of people are going to jump on Illinios -19 without thinking too much about it. Illinios was pretty good last year, and posted a couple big upset wins. And most people will say who the hell is Arkansas State.

A lot of people will bet this game without even realizing how good Ark States Offense is and that it is very much intact from last year, and that Illinios has some serious questions on Defense.

The Books can post an Illinios -19 1/2 line. A line that Illinios pretty much has no chance of covering, and the books will probably still write more Illinios tickets than Ark State tickets.

Gamblers, if they are patient can wait and take advantage of these spots, and yes there will still be losses, but in the long run, doing this you sure can hit 70% ATS. In fact, you will hit 70% ATS. Just cant play 15 games a week, and there may be weeks with 0 games.

But there are stupid lines posted in NCAAF all the time.

 

    GL