Auburn vs Georgia

Listen, the only and I mean ONLY way UGA doesn't cover, winning is foregone.. but Cover this line is always the same reason, Kirby Smart is the enemy to any sports bettor ATS, he has taken NFL rosters and scraped by bad teams like this because he has no problem keeping awful teams in games and winning 13-3.. Kirby Smart is the only reason UGA wouldn't win this game by at the very least 21 points.. They just beat a better Arkansas team from start to finish and put up another egg winning 37-0. Auburn should never be ANY threat offensively at ANY point in this game, could nix run around a make a few lucky plays against Dawgs man press coverages? sure, but will they amount to anything? It would take a true miracle, and I don't wager my money depending on miracles.. I put the odds in my favor, and the odds tell me this game looks more like the one I watched last year even with a different HC at Auburn, because the QB is the same against the best College Defense by far this season..

It's more likely Nix turns the ball over with sacks and fumbles/INT's than him throwing touchdowns. This isn't penn state or LSU's defense, he got benched against Georgia State, just think that through for awhile. If you think Nix has somehow figured something out after 3 years, you're fooling yourself.. Iv'e seen many kids like him before, they are highly rated and people keep waiting for them to develop but when they don't have it up top like him, they NEVER develop. He's absolutely a Jeff Driskel in college level bust as a passer.. Even if they put the other kid in he'll be running for his life and bent in half as well, I don't envy any QB going up against this defense, much less bad ones. 

@LonghornHoosier

 LSU is no Georgia, Georgia is planning for Mr. Bo Nix don't forget, Georgia has the best Defense in the nation, No 1 against the pass 117 yards a game, and ranked no 6 in the nation in sacks. No 4 against the run. and this week Georgia will be at full strength 100% offensively for the first time this year. and if Georgia knows Bo Nix is the only offensive weapon Auburn brags about, I PITTY HIM.

These games are for TV watching gamblers.  Georgia lays only -19 to Ark last week when Geo was at home.  Dont get me wrong I like Ark this season but they are not an established elite program (Arkansas were dogs in every game last season and this season were favorites to 2 bottom feeders) Sure Ark beat Texas and A&M but after a few weeks we will see how big those wins are (not very).  Geo laying this many on the road after 2 shutouts and back to back 20 point covers,  is not the recipe to beat bookies and spreads.

Inflated line Auburn covers and Georgia wins.

Be careful with this game....Georgia my have an "elite" defense but look at the P5 offenses they have played (Clemson, USCe, Vandy and Arky)....those aren't exactly offensive juggernauts. On offense, looks like the QB Daniels is not throwing this week in practice and the last time the back-up started on the road in a hostile SEC environment they were blown out by Bama. GA's offense is pretty one dimensional without Daniels which could lead to a low scoring game.

Not sure if Auburn is any better than the offenses Ga has played but Bo Nix does have a tendency to play better at home and say what you will about him...he doesn't turn the ball over very often (13 career picks in 900 attempts and no interceptions yet this year). Irregardless of the difference in talent levels...this is a rivalry game and Auburn is due to beat them....remember the idiot Malzahn is gone and the new coach Harsin may not be any better but he appears to actually be able to game plan and make the necessary adjustments. Auburn has already played a top 5 PSU defense on the road and scored 20 points (they should have scored another TD to make it 27).

Too many unknowns in this game to pick a side for me...under or some sort of teaser may be the play here.

@Tigerswon

 You make some good points but I just gotta go with a good ole beat down by Georgia … this might be the best defense they have seen other than Clemson though 

There's a reason Bo Nix looked magical against LSU... running for his life and completing passes... it's because the Auburn OL is terrible. UGA just ran through Arkansas's OL like butter and I think they're better up front than Auburn. Bo Nix will once again be running for his life, except this time, the DL and linebackers for GA are faster than LSU. Despite the "magic" Bo is only a 58% passer; Bobo needs to dial up a game plan where they get the ball out super fast if he is to have a chance.

I could see a slower start than usual because no doubt Jordan Hare will be rocking but I see a similar result as last year. 31-7 Dawgs

I just capped this game and I am excited. An absolutely battle between Auburn, who rushes 6.8 yards per carry, and Georgia, who only allows 70 rush yards per game. Georgia has the edge on D in points, giving up 5 to Auburn's 16. But that is only 11 points there.

Looking at offense and it is actually pretty close. Georgia wins the QB comparison handedly, but Auburn wins the rushing comparison handedly. Indeed, with both teams at +2 TOs, Auburn has 50 yards more per game. Both teams score 40 per game.

The difference maker in this game will be if either team throws an interception. Bo has 0 interceptions on the year, but Georgia has caught 7. Georgia has also thrown for 5 interceptions. If Bo throws none, and Georgia throws 1, that could be a 6 to 14 point swing of the game.

Georgia battle with Clemson was very defensive, a 7 point game. We could see another one, where one throw is the difference in this game. I am looking forward to see if Auburn can run or not vs Georgia. Also, to see if either team can force an interception. I capped this as Georgia -7 in a low scoring game. So I am gonna take my 15% odds and put some money on the Auburn ML. It's one of those years.

I just capped this game and I am excited. An absolutely battle between Auburn, who rushes 6.8 yards per carry, and Georgia, who only allows 70 rush yards per game. Georgia has the edge on D in points, giving up 5 to Auburn's 16. But that is only 11 points there.

Looking at offense and it is actually pretty close. Georgia wins the QB comparison handedly, but Auburn wins the rushing comparison handedly. Indeed, with both teams at +2 TOs, Auburn has 50 yards more per game. Both teams score 40 per game.

The difference maker in this game will be if either team throws an interception. Bo has 0 interceptions on the year, but Georgia has caught 7. Georgia has also thrown for 5 interceptions. If Bo throws none, and Georgia throws 1, that could be a 6 to 14 point swing of the game.

Georgia battle with Clemson was very defensive, a 7 point game. We could see another one, where one throw is the difference in this game. I am looking forward to see if Auburn can run or not vs Georgia. Also, to see if either team can force an interception. I capped this as Georgia -7 in a low scoring game. So I am gonna take my 15% odds and put some money on the Auburn ML. It's one of those years.

I just capped this game and I am excited. An absolutely battle between Auburn, who rushes 6.8 yards per carry, and Georgia, who only allows 70 rush yards per game. Georgia has the edge on D in points, giving up 5 to Auburn's 16. But that is only 11 points there.

Looking at offense and it is actually pretty close. Georgia wins the QB comparison handedly, but Auburn wins the rushing comparison handedly. Indeed, with both teams at +2 TOs, Auburn has 50 yards more per game. Both teams score 40 per game.

The difference maker in this game will be if either team throws an interception. Bo has 0 interceptions on the year, but Georgia has caught 7. Georgia has also thrown for 5 interceptions. If Bo throws none, and Georgia throws 1, that could be a 6 to 14 point swing of the game.

Georgia battle with Clemson was very defensive, a 7 point game. We could see another one, where one throw is the difference in this game. I am looking forward to see if Auburn can run or not vs Georgia. Also, to see if either team can force an interception. I capped this as Georgia -7 in a low scoring game. So I am gonna take my 15% odds and put some money on the Auburn ML. It's one of those years.

This game is going to be much closer than what we saw last week when Georgia destroyed Arkansas. Auburn plays with a little more grit and finds a way to keep it close. I do think Georgia gets the win, but not by much. Personally staying away from this one, but I really think Auburn gets the cover. 

Some good stuff here.  Am inclined to think the line may be a little rich after blowouts and public perception. Doubt seriously Nix is gonna beat UGA.

@PeAceMaKer7690

 You must have this game mixed up with Georgia STATE... This is The University of Georgia...

@The_BigDog

 I look for numbers and stories. Numbers as I posted show Auburn is in this game. And there is a story for Bo Nix doing what no other QB could do vs Georgia. A QB who was benched just 2 games ago. If you look at the numbers, Georgia should win by 7. A good story would be Auburn getting an interception, Bo not throwing one, and getting the upset at home. Is that a crazy story? Of course not. Is it likey? Of course not. But at 6-1 odds and 17% chance, it's a fun side of the bet to be on. 

The thing most likely to keep Auburn within the line is Stetson Bennett. He proved last year he is not an elite college quarterback. Georgia's rush attack is well above average, but Auburn has been burned most by good passing attacks. UGA has the receivers, but Bennett is too short to be effective. Look at the footage of the Arkansas game and see how many of his eleven passes aren't floated because he has to arc the ball to get it over the defensive line. ESPN's commentators have been a joke this year talking about a quarterback controversy. Georgia's defense is exceptional, but with Bennett at quarterback their offense is barely above average. That's good enough to win most games but not cover a two plus touchdown line on the road against an SEC rival.

@Atlanta

 Are you implying that Georgia won't be able to score 22 or more points?   Because I don't see Auburn getting more than 7 points in this game...

@LonghornHoosier

 Both Georgia and Auburn average 40+ ppg. 

Both Georgia and Auburn give up under 20ppg.

There is a wide trajectory the scoring can go. Georgia may not score 20. Auburn may score 40. Most likely somewhere in the middle.

Longhornhoosier, I'm saying I wouldn't be surprised if the Dawgs scored in the 20's, and Auburn would only have to score two touchdowns to cover. That makes it too close for me to play. JWheels suggested that Kirby going conservative on offense would be the only way Auburn could cover. I just suggested a reason he might feel he has no choice but to have a conservative offensive game plan.

according to my stats, Auburn has best running game in sec, Auburn just needs to break couple of big runs in the game to get an upset win and move to top 5 rank

good luck with that...

Georgia covers.

I am liking this thread, guys. Some passionate opinions here on this game. But what say you about the total? This is an interesting one. I am leaning toward the under, myself.....It is now 46.5 on Betcris

@Atlanta

 I am inclined to agree with you. Two solid defenses and a line that is now 16.5 points...is a recipe for a dog covering that spread....

Is pickens back for UGA and is Stetson Bennett for sure starting again? 

@jwheels86

No on Pickens, reports that Rosemy-Jacksaint could be back and potentially Blaylock. Washington will be closer to 100% and a full go. Tykee Smith (All American DB) should get some playing time as well. Stetson likely to start; Daniels did not throw on Monday but did a light throwing session on Tuesday. I think UGA could beat Auburn and Kentucky with Bennett and might be what I do if I were Kirby... let Daniels be a full go by the time of the UGA-Florida game.

The difference in this game is the line of scrimmage and UGA has a significant advantage on both sides. Without actually doing the research, I would wager the quality of offenses faced by Auburn and UGA isn't a whole lot different and UGA is holding teams to 4.6ppg (3.2 if you remove the pick 6 that the defense didn't give up). This 2021 UGA defense is on pace to be as good if not better than the 2011 Bama defense. The UGA starters on defense have yet to give up an offensive TD at all (SC scored in garbage time).

Auburn has a decent run defense so if we're looking at another Stetson Bennett start, the UNDER is probably the play. Similar score to last year. 31-7 or 28-7 UGA

i watched 95% of Auburn games for over 15 years, i saw  Auburn upsetting many teams like Bama, Georgia, Florida, LSU. I am not sure why no one here remembers that.

Both defenses are good, Auburn just needs a couple of big plays to pull this off