Bama vs Tx

Almost here. This caught my eye as I follow...and have bet on Bama...a good bit the last few yrs. Inspite of being a UGA grad??. I would be stoned if folks here knew that. But did have UGA in NC game .

Tx gonna get their azz beat. Bama gonna be stout...both sides of the ball. Young, a ton of running backs...with a very good transfer Gibbs who is looking very good. Enough experience on OL and did just lose a WR but should be fine there.

If Ewers starts at QB ...he has ONE down under his belt. Behind a line that could be starting two to three FR. Yikes! Agst a badass D. Anderson and other DE are great pass rushers. A veteran, very good secondary. Bama gonna dominate the LOS. Thirty one percent third down conversion rate should be improved upon. Can TX even score 14 - 17? Remember this is the team that lost to Kansas. Kansas.

And you have a pissed off Saban,team after that rebuilding season. Right. I like the probability of Bama covering the 15. Thoughts? Like Bama to win it all actually.  GL this season to all.  

@fts1409

 Collin Wilson, a sharp capper on Sports Action, thinks that Saban will not lay the wood to Sarkisian. 

CW is basing this on what he heard from both Sark and Saban at their respective media days.  Much respect from both sides and apparently more convincing than Saban's usual perfunctory comments about his previous assistant coaches.

I don't know if I totally buy this but CW is a damn good capper and his comments are always worth hearing.

Interesting. But I still think a cover. Don't you ?

I think all that conference media day stuff is "coach speak"...They say the right things, out of respect, Saban is proud of Sarkisian yada yada yada...When the game the starts, it will be a different story...Bama lost its last game of the 2021 season, Saban has an ongoing feud with Texas A&M Coach Jimbo Fisher, Texas is a fertile recruiting ground for Bama, and Texas and Texas A&M are making inroads due to their vast resources on the recruiting game that Bama has dominated for a decade...

Don't tell me Saban is going soft on anyone...Perhaps if Bama is up 38 to 10 halfway through the 4th quarter, he will focus on running the ball, and continue to play tough D...Saban knows how talented this Texas roster is, and how Sarkisian is a good coach, and Ewers and Worthy and Johnson could turn around a game quickly if Bama were to let up...I cap the game at Bama -15 and it will probably be -17 by kick off.  The game is early, at 11 am, and though the game will be a sell out, Texas fans, especially the students casually come in through the first quarter.  Though the stadium is enclosed now, it has traditionally not been a very intimidating place for opposing teams.  Alabama's D will be considered the best in the country, will Alpha Dog Will Anderson leading it and holding his colleagues accountable...Ewers has not thrown a pass in a college game since ever, and has not thrown a pass in any game, since December 2020...I think there will be nerves and rush there..And yes, coaches say they don't look at the spread (other than maybe Lane Kiffen), but the spread is a perception, a benchmark, and I am willing to bet, that Saban wants to exceed perceptions and expectations for this game, based on the motivational factors outlined above...

Texas D got shreaded by Kansas for 57 points in the 3rd week in November...If they Texas can stay within the chalk of this game, with an inexperienced but talented QB, a suspect Defense, a suspect offensive line, verses a highly motivated, focussed and extremely well coached Bama team in week 2, 2022, it would be  one of the more remarkable covers and stories for the season...Bama will be a 10 to 40 point favorite over every other SEC team not named Georgia in 2022...Why should we expect a Texas Team who was 2021 even stay close to Alabama in Week 2 2022...Sure, Saban may eventually call the dogs off, but it will be well into the 4th quarter, and the win and the cover will be more than at hand...So Combato, I think Collin may be correct in that Saban will call off the dogs, but it won't be until the win and cover are well at hand...Sarkisian may not be quintessential jerk Lane Kiffen, where Saban would keep passing and scoring well into the 4th quarter,  but in Nick Saban's eyes, Texas he is the enemy...and will guide his team accordingly...

Predicted Score -Alabama 38 Texas 13

Alabama -15 (perceived opening line spread) - Alabama win and cover

I am an alumnus of UT Austin, BBA 1992...and yes I  am a Homer...

I invite all comments... 

PS - So Combato - Collin may be right...Alabama may not beat Texas by 40 or 50...but, that does not mean that he won't win by 20 to 30...from my perspective...bet against Nick Saban and Alabama in this game at your own peril...

And another thing, Alabama has absolutely no look ahead's in that they have ULM, Steele's #124 ranked team in his Preseason Power Rankings and #113 Vanderbilt the following week...His and the team's focus will be 100% on Texas...Saban will school his former pupil, though not humiliate him...Texas has a lot of work to do prior to entering the SEC in 2025...This game will be a benchmark for what needs to be done...And that will be the key talking point in Sark's post game press conference on the afternoon of 3 September 2022...

Longorn Hoosier smart,insightful dude.  Seeing it exactly as I do. Only concern is Saban is apt to call the dogs off early when comfortably ahead.  15 shouldnt be an issue I feel.  Thinking about Ore at UGA too. Ore 12-15th preseason...if that means anything.   Lanning was very good DC at Ga and prospects for his D now look pretty good w alot back.  Offenses typically slow out of the gate. Nix certainly has had his ups and downs but did have Dillingham as OC at Aub and won SEC Fr of the Year award.  Dude was Mr Alabama Football in hs and that is saying something.  Im wondering re UGA being NC overpriced and possible hangover too.  Just lost track star /WR who was quite involved in O last yr.  When you have 15 players drafted....highest in history....and five first rounders off the D, there is gonna be a dropoff !  You aint got the same talent level,skill sets nor experience.

I meant 10 September 2022...in the last line of my last post...

I dunno if line is offered anywhere still - but wouldn't bet it now, if you like Bama.

Texas *should* murder ULM - Bama dick around. Maybe line drops to 14 or so BRIEFLY? .... By game time tho it might be much higher .... 17-20?

Saban will most likely stress / correcting their (relative) weaknesses LY. Running the ball / imposing their will - protection - pass D. Horns come out strong - get up early - Bama 2H or in-game might be a great play. Ground / pound in the extreme heat might prove challenging for that mighty Horn D ha .....

$$   learn to think in terms of PROBABILITIES boys - instead of wild-azz, binary, black and white extremes. It's more fun no doubt - and mob friendly - but just confuses the issue. "Team A is trash, and will get destroyed!!!! you just wait and see !!!!" ....kinda thing 

Horns get up early? Disagree. In looking at complete totality of both, I personally feel there is an above avg probability Bama covers. Could be dead wrong. Often am. No biggie...just one wager among a hundred to come.

Getting up early or being competitive early will have little to do with covering the game... referring to INGAME and/or 2H betting.

Don't do in game bud. U made the claim of Tx jumping out.  Ain't gonna happen. Low probability. Mob friendly ? ??

@fts1409

 What are you talking about?

Where did I say Texas 1H?

I said IF Texas starts fast / is competitive early - look to play Bama ffs

Why are you posting in a forum if you aren't open to IDEAS?

Who's the Texas QB?  Quinn Ewers?  Unproven QB with no experience going up against Bama....

I just don't see the UT line holding up against the Bama DL, and especially the edge rushers. We all know Will Anderson but don't forget about Dallas Turner either who piled up 9 sacks last year. If Bijan can't get going, Anderson and Turner will be teeing off on whoever is back there at QB.

Line on Action Network at -15 with a total of 56, leaning strong towards Bama and maybe the Texas TT Under. 

Yeah I can't see this line doing anything other than going up. There is big gap between the quality and skill of the lineman on both sides of the ball for Bama and Texas. 

Texas might be able to keep this a close game for a half, but eventually the differance above will show. I like Bama by 3 scores big here. 

Texas just lost one of its starting WRs, a transfer from Wyoming, and a 4 year starter on the O Line…due to season ending injury.   Bama has a huge advantage in the trenches and at QB.  The line is going to rise as the game approaches…

@fts1409

 We gonna see what Ewers has vs Tide if he even survives 1st half.

@fts1409

 Sark being Saban ex oc is worth 7-10 points which I doubt will keep Texas inside the #.In Austin? Gonna be a blood bath..Bryce opens a can in Austin.Prez, hit me up.Lets get this done sir.WT will take this page back to top.

@TRAIN69

Surprised you dont play Live in game..All kinds of opportunities.

@LonghornHoosier

 I dont think Texas 1st team offense can beat Bama's 2nd team D.

@LonghornHoosier

 All those Frosh for Texas OL..Could be a long day for Ewers if he even survives 1st half.

@bookieassassin

 Anything over 17 and i'm biting. 

Great info Longhorn, thanks! Line is already moving, FD has -17.5 and DK at -16. 247Sports has a true freshman as probable replacement to O-lineman Angilau who had 34 career starts.

You are probably correct...There are 2 Brockemeyers (Who's dad was an AA for Texas in the 1990s) who have not yet cracked the starting line up for Bama, who would be starters at Texas...Its going to be a bloodbath...How high do you think the line could get prior to kick off...I hope I can get it under Alabama -17...