Something to consider: Since Alabama is rated no. 1 preseason and because Saban is their coach, they will be overvalued at least 4-10 points in every game they play. Doesn't mean they won't cover, mind you, just means you will be be giving up that much point spread value every game you bet them.
RT2
4-10 points of lost value? Based on what? Yes, they are a public team...But, I think it comes down to motivation...Bama is currently a 17 point favorite against my Longhorns in week 2, 10 September 2022...But, I think they will win by at least 28...So are you saying they should only be a 7-13 favorite? Granted, there may be some fluff on Bama, however, it still comes down to the opponent matchups, and motivation...from my perspective...In a pure game of chance, sure you would want to avoid Bama or at the very least minimize your exposure...But, as you know college football sports wagering is a game of skill...and there are no absolutes, and there are no locks...
U of T history : when they are getting +10 or more AND they score MORE than 10 points in the game they are 17-5 ATS.
I am not betting the game, even though history is on their side I am not confident that Bama wont make this trend 17-6.
In game is a possibility, the more Texas points the more they have a chance to stay within the #.
In all due respect, they won't...There are better plays on the board if your system precludes a Bama play minus the chalk...I have heard rumors that Card will be named the starter for Texas...He has experience from last season...Texas may be competitive for a quarter or so...Texas defense, offensive line, and quarterback are highly suspect... Rhetorically, I ask you...How does a Texas Defense that gave up (at home) 57 points to Kansas 2 games ago (last season) improve enough to warrant any reasonable consideration at all against one of the top offenses in the nation...With Bijon Robinson and some descent receivers we may get 10-14 points by the end of the 4th quarter...And that Alabama D is going to be good...For me, its Alabama up to -20...or nothing...
you need to start then, that's where the big money is in live wagering.. Especially if you know what you're watching unfold in a football game as far as coaches and styles
All we need here ..... is that Jimmy- duh- freak to sashe in, feather boa and all - with a 10,000 word candle light romance type piece, on how Vegas is in the charity business now - and that Texas might as well now even show up .... "it will be a glorious and decisive victory - Texas might not even score or cross the 50 !!!!!!!! - I guarantee it !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!" ............
You morons would be foaming at the mouth - carefully easing your drawers below your ankles ..... lunging for the hand lotion as you place that max $20 wager ...........haha
BTW
$ That's how in-game / halftime wagering is done - before the game begins, imagine a scenario that (might) set up a high % play.
* here I'm passing on the game side - but think strongly that Texas will have a tough time stopping Bama for 4Q. BUT - they do have : talent, and great offensive and defensive minds, that have been working on this one all YEAR. An extremely high energy atmosphere plus devil's ball sack type heat who TF knows.... Horns should compete early - or late maybe?. ONE BIG HIT ON THE BAMA QB - CHANGES THIS ONE IMMEDIATELY. Keep in mind Bama has all new WRs and RB as well. Horns with the nations best RB.
>> Horns score 1st or get up 10-0 - you can POOF! - Get Bama cheap. Note starts vs Duke, West Virginia, USC, Wisky?......etc
Saint Nick is going to lay a beat down on Texas to make a point:
Texas coming to the SEC and needs to remind Texas this not the B12...and Bama is still king of the Hill
Recruiting in Texas...
Sarkisian..Former OC...and like all his former assistants...they come and go and is just another assistant..
@jwheels86
ha - yep he knows his stuff for sure ...
He drove me crazy because he would know NOTHING about whatever the given SEC team was playing .....yet would go on, and on and on - how they had no chance! That's irresponsible as hell - you post to help guys out - we're not running for office here ....
Anyone that actually still posts things about the actual details of football games would be welcomed back around here.. We need more of it again, too many people literally just post a play and can't tell you what defense the team they are wagering on runs. It's hard enough to win ATS when you are an "inside baseball" detail guy for this sport already like we are.. It's just gambling if you watch box scores or God forbid listen to/read what the media thinks.. We need more football guys in here again, no matter what side or total you're on having detailed views of things from every end has been missing on this board. Take the NC game for instance, my big play was on GA in the rematch as many of you know. It's amazing how many people just thought it was the dumbest possible thought of all time because "dey jus lost ta them a few weekz ago and got blown out". Every single week is different, match ups etc.. even if you play the same opponent twice a year each game looks vastly differently (i.e. NFL divisions).
Stop telling us all what team you're on with zero reason.. tell us why you think the side your on gives you the best odds against the house and make a case for it. 
@RebelTell2
yep - it's simple
You can see the public euphoria here - "be advised - if you like Bama - expect to pay a heavy TAX". Hell we're already paying 10% for the privilege of betting - plus loaning them our money for a week or so - why pay an additional tax so you can be like everybody else?
@bookieassassin
You are so right. Laying 10% is absolute robbery. No sensible gambler would lay 10% on any type of bet in a casino, yet we do so on sports wagering. Sports betting is almost as bad as playing the Big Six wheel, and that is the biggest sucker play in the casino.
I think sports bettors should go on strike...no more betting until we get 5% juice. Never happen though, too addictive a past time.
Good luck this season!
RT2
It's good to have your own system, just make sure it's accurate and then you must always trust it to make you profitable.. Myself i've always wagered each game as its own entity and go with my gut and knowledge of schemes, staffs and personnel.. Just depends on what type of capper you are, if you aren't as big into the details yourself of the sport then a system helps take the guesswork out. There's different ways to win, I don't have anything negative to say about systems and models. I just don't do it that way myself, but I do trust good bettors that use them and also take their own feelings on games into accounts. I think a middle ground is probably your best bet, you can be on the right side of many games and still lose ATS.. That's just how hard this is, you need luck and fortune on your side, but it makes you seem much luckier long term if you know more about these staffs and teams than they realize about themselves because you're not only trying to figure out who is going to win a football game, but by how much or how little. Guys like Bookieassassin have a little different approach to this than me, but I trust his ability to put all the wisdom together with all the details he uses, especially look ahead and let down spots those are bigger in football than any other sport.. There's a few guys on this board over the years I have no problem tailing once they've capped games from other conferences, my specialty is the SEC. Train is another one, I like to see what they think about games and take it into account regardless if we agree or not.
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