Boise State -2.5

Question

Someone talk me out of it because I am close to firing on it. Virg did have some tough opposition this year except for barely scraping by a scrub W&M team last week. Their rushing game is garbage with only 335 yards rushing through 3 games. Boise gonna force them to throw as the D against the run is top notch. They only averaged 3.3 YPC against W&M. What do you suppose they do against Boise in this spot?

Yes its a primetime weekday game on the road as short chalk. I know as well as anyone here how dangerous playing that can be....Boise QB broke his ankle last week , also down starting DE and a few WR's questionable to play. Thats really the main downside to this play, Who knows how good his replacement will be? I see lots of people saying Ryplien is supposed to be really good too. Highly recruited 6'2 good accuracy went 8/9 and Boise scored on all his possessions last game. Feel Boise's ground game can be relied upon even if he does struggle a little.

Any other thoughts on this game?

VegasVandal · Answer

Someone talk me out of it because I am close to firing on it. Virg did have some tough opposition this year except for barely scraping by a scrub W&M team last week. Their rushing game is garbage with only 335 yards rushing through 3 games. Boise gonna force them to throw as the D against the run is top notch. They only averaged 3.3 YPC against W&M. What do you suppose they do against Boise in this spot?

Yes its a primetime weekday game on the road as short chalk. I know as well as anyone here how dangerous playing that can be....Boise QB broke his ankle last week , also down starting DE and a few WR's questionable to play. Thats really the main downside to this play, Who knows how good his replacement will be? I see lots of people saying Ryplien is supposed to be really good too. Highly recruited 6'2 good accuracy went 8/9 and Boise scored on all his possessions last game. Feel Boise's ground game can be relied upon even if he does struggle a little.

Any other thoughts on this game?

WISEGUY36 · Answer

Rypien&#x27;s got good numbers for limited action , butI hate laying points in a situation. New QB , shortweek to prepare and west to east travel is a badcombination.Best of Luck , Bud

MosesGuthrie · Answer

Would you play it if it was on Saturday?

WISEGUY36 · Answer

It&#x27;s an intriguing play with a tempting line . Yes , I probably would throw a little something at it.

VegasVandal · Answer

thanks wise. I dont particularly like the "situation" either but even though its a short week they cakewalked through their last opponent and were able to give guys plenty of rest. The run game and the defense of Boise are the key factors why Boise wins this game even breaking in a new QB.They let one get away from them that they should have won on the road @ BYU. Tough to see them not bring the hammer down here in this game

DannerB7 · Answer

Perhaps I can help shed some light on this situation. I will be betting Virginia this Friday night. Of course do your own work and come to your own conclusion because that is the best course of action. With that said, Virginia is apart of two profitable trends that I have found -

I am buying Virginia to +3. Past ten years - Friday Night Home dogs whose previous game was at home, playing a team whose previous game was a home fave who covered are 22-7. When the home team is an east coast team, it's 10-3. Small sample size for sure, but I like the angle.

Now, when we take the above criteria, and focus on spreads between +2.5 and +10, we find that the home dog is actually 13-3 SU! For this reason I will also have a smaller bet on Virginia ML.

BOL whatever you choose.

JamieLanister · Answer

UVA was killer at home last year.Beat the U, Lousiville, Pitt and competed brilliantly with UCLA and UNC. I&#x27;m sure they were perfect ATS. Will be playing UVA, but BOL on whatever you play

WISEGUY36 · Answer

OK you talked me into it . I&#x27;m in at Boise - 2 1/2.We&#x27;re in this one together then , Bud

WISEGUY36 · Answer

UVA , that powerhouse at home outgained William &amp;Mary by 2 yards and crushed them by 6 points.

tjohnsont · Answer

Saw Rypien play 2nd half last week.  The kid can throw and had some nice passes.  But that doesn&#x27;t always mean much.

VegasVandal · Answer

That was last year....their squad this year is very mediocre. UCLA QB threw for 9.5 ypa, ND QB&#x27;s threw for 7.7 and 6.4 YPA, W&amp;M threw for 6.1 ypa. the rook will be just fine IMO as long as he limits ridiculous mistakes Virginia Defensive efficiency rank 108thBoise State Defensive efficiency rank 28thVirginia offensive efficiency rank 18thBoise State offensive efficiency rank 63rdoverall efficiency Virginia 68th Boise 49thFPI has Boise @ 33rd and Virg 58th Is this the team they lose two straight road games to? What do we project Virginia gains against them on the ground  75 yards total maybe?Boise gave up 29 total yards rushing in game 1 against Washington, only 72 yards rushing against BYU (on 39 total carries mind you) and 36 yards rushing to Idaho State. In other words they have only given up 137 yards rushing the ENTIRE SEASON. All you trend players need to realize that X and O &#x27;s mean more than past trends (especially since none of those teams even played this game) completely different matchupVirginia better hope their QB is ready to sling it for 390 yards

Relax_Dude · Answer

Boise does well outta conference. But Virginia is a hungry team and have played a tough tough schedule. Virginia has a really hard time offensively. it&#x27;s more obvious vs stiff competition or with stout defenses, like USC ND present. Boise also plays very hard defensively and hits hard, and has very good safeties. Boise has a terrible QB, and the running game is suspect. I predict a LOW scoring game here, and probably so do the lines makers when it comes out. Prefer the under.

JamieLanister · Answer

I hereby retract my comments.

VegasVandal · Answer

Which ones are those?

Pecador · Answer

Vegas,   Played Boise for a unit earlier tonight. I think they have plenty of defense to get the cover and will of course be looking to play Virg. u TT.  I like it just fine.GL,   Doc

VegasVandal · Answer

Just to play devils advocate... How do you know their QB is "terrible"? He is a highly rated QB out of high school and nephew to an NFL MVP. He may have "it" in his genes. Their run game can be a little suspect I agree but it is still much better than Virginia&#x27;s run game. Confident they have plenty of success vs this defense. gl to whatever you decide

VegasVandal · Answer

On Rypien,

This was posted in November of last year

He moved within 238 yards of the state record for career yardage set by former Skyline standout Max Browne, now at USC. Browne piled up 12,953 yards – a mark many thought would stand for a long time until Rypien came along.

Although the National Federation of State High School’s record book hasn’t been updated, Browne reportedly ranks eighth nationally. Rypien (12,715) leapfrogged past former DeSales and University of Idaho QB Brian Lindgren (12,575) last week.

The article further goes on to state that Rypien has a few more games left and if he stayed around his average per game that he would be the all time leader for passing yards in the state of Washington......

https://www.spokesman.com/stories/2014/nov/20/shadles-brett-rypien-holds-top-numbers-on-field/

VegasVandal · Answer

Just more FYI from Rivals:He is ranked 232nd among all players in his class for any positionHe is ranked 8th at his position among all QB&#x27;s entering college.#1 ranked QB from state of Washington entering NCAAF

Relax_Dude · Answer

Not a fair thing to say--he is a great athlete, but I lost confidence in him at the BYU game when he could not get a 1st down on three consecutive tries to put the game away, and really set up the hail mary fiasco. BYU is a nasty team, I think they lead the NCAA in penalties. So there are excuses , and they should win this one with what they have.

ParlaySucker · Answer

Relax_Dude you&#x27;re obviously confused here.   The QB you&#x27;re talking about is Finley who played against BYU...who you&#x27;re right is terrible.  He broke his ankle last week vs Idaho St and is out now.  The QB everyone is talking about is Brett Rypien who is a highly recruited 4 star true freshman.  After Finely broke his ankle last week the coaching staff burned Rypien&#x27;s redshirt and Rypien came in and looked very good and heads and tails better as a passer compared to Finley.  Keep in mind they were playing Idaho St, but he still looked good regardless.  Hope this clears up some of your confusion.  P.S. It still hasn&#x27;t even been confirmed if Rypien will be the starter over Stuart (who was 2nd on the official depth chart before burning Rypien&#x27;s redshirt)

Relax_Dude · Answer

TY for the awesome info, dude Freshman on the road.....errrrr....we&#x27;ll see. I like to wait and see on this one. Makes me like the under but I need a good number for totals plays.

ParlaySucker · Answer

You got it man!  While I&#x27;m a die hard BSU fan and think they can definitely cover this spread there is no way I&#x27;m touching it with a true freshman on the road at Virginia in possibly his first start.  You&#x27;re right in that the under may be the play if anything here.  BOL!

warrenator · Answer

Wm @ MY is actually a solid FCS team, and one has to look at Virginia having a huge emotional let down after the N.D. loss--Boise seems slightly over-rated to me particularly after losing their great running back from last year, and break in new Qb as well--VG will definetly be pumped up for this one, emotions play a huge part in the college game, the home edge I think gives them the win.

Pecador · Answer

The under may be a play for me as well, especially the Virginia under.

I look at Boise as being a system play. Boise has a system and the Rypien guy just has to play it. A week to pepare. He'll do fine. Way better defense for Boise in this one. A field goal seems like a small price to pay.

GL, Doc

TRAIN69 · Answer

Giant sandwich spot.

Boise State -2.5

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