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Posted: #76
Bookie, hope you have a merry ( and profitable ) Christmas

and a Blessed New Year.
Helping Kama'aina to beat their " Local " since 1994.
 
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Posted: #77
Quote Originally Posted by WISEGUY36:

Bookie, hope you have a merry ( and profitable ) Christmas

and a Blessed New Year.


thanks man you too..............

as (primarily).....a fundamental handicapper I assume you liked UCF here.... .........

looks like they showed up to play......
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Posted: #78
Quote Originally Posted by bookieassassin:



thanks man you too..............

as (primarily).....a fundamental handicapper I assume you liked UCF here.... .........

looks like they showed up to play......



Yes I did. my only concern was the inconsistency they displayed
in some games this year (including doggin it on the last leg of a
3 tm. Round Robin I played during the year ).
I think fundamentals still play a part in bowl games,and I've done
pretty well backing those types of teams.


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Posted: #79
we'll be opposite in several this bowl season........

Cuz....I like

N Dame......Kan St.....prolly OU.....Wisky maybe....not Nebraska ha....DUKE....

*in spirit a match-up guy myself......(obviously)
but grew tired of seeing so many teams just not do what they're 'supposed to do'....so now I 1st look for the 'hungrier' team....the one with an edge....and see if the stats support it..........usually  
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Posted: #80
Quote Originally Posted by bookieassassin:

we'll be opposite in several this bowl season........

Cuz....I like

N Dame......Kan St.....prolly OU.....Wisky maybe....not Nebraska ha....DUKE....

*in spirit a match-up guy myself......(obviously)
but grew tired of seeing so many teams just not do what they're 'supposed to do'....so now I 1st look for the 'hungrier' team....the one with an edge....and see if the stats support it..........usually  


Buddy, you're " out thinkin em ". Although I should talk. I look at
a lot of stats and angles before I pull the trigger on a play, and
most of the time I'm looking for things that cancel out other stats.
I don't "fall in love" with any one stat and keep it objective so I can
look a little deeper on how Team A will play vs Team B.
If emotion beats me when I have the team that is clearly
fundamentally better, so be it because I know it won't happen
very often.
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Posted: #81
Great post. Thanks Assassin
 
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Posted: #82
Great post. Thanks Assassin
 
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Posted: #83
IF....it's that easy........

You should bet everything you own and can sell....give blood...get a paper route...put your old lady on the street......> then put it all on Florida St......

*Just talked to a buddy....match-up guy and 10 yr + NFL player .....I delivered the $125,000 he lost to his bookie in the OU/Boise game...a life-long source of " I told you so's ".........
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Posted: #84
I'm all over it !!!!!!!!!!!!!

The funny thing is, I mentioned that I'm looking for stats that cancel
other stats out.Teams like Fla. St, Clemson OU,rarely come into
play for me, and while a typical college football week will only
provide maybe 3-4 plays/week.That's all all I need to finance my
Ahi Poke and Longboard Lager habit.
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Posted: #85
Bookie, your buddy who played in the League 10 years
may have been ' concussed ' once or twice.
That's the only reason I can think of for someone betting
$125k on " Big Game Bob."


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Posted: #86
Quote Originally Posted by bookieassassin:

SKIPSTER......
  *well you asked........ >>> I gotta get a life someday...whatever TF that is.......

in your earlier thread you said you were down small on arky st.  Reason for change?

  *ASU/MALZAHN......was.... a machine and way too much for the Flashes....now...Malzahn is GONE...while KSU HC Hazell is STAYING WITH HIS TEAM FOR THE BOWL......what a concept....so for me KSU now a strong play...ML too definitely worth a shot....recall Ark St HC has hauled azz the last 2 years....players gotta be tired of it

Also agree that TCU/MSU should be low scoring but I gravitated towards sparty thinking their slightly more
experience team might pull it out.

  *might be right...but thinking here is Sparty (had high hopes) not really too excited about being here...last 4 bowls faced Georgia twice....Bama and Texas Tech  (lost by 10)....now facing (in their minds) a stinkin' MTW team in the Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl?.....
Frogs with a very young team....with a ton of adversity (self-inflicted yes)....but super fired up to be facing a top B10 team here......any doubt Patterson has them ready????
  *recall Frog fr QB Boykin was working at RB....before called at last minute to start...so they basically played most of the year with their 4th string RB (Tucker hurt all year) and a RB at QB....having lost key players to the drug thing....and their  best player ( DE Maponga) was hurt all year...now RB Tucker (6-1/230..4.45...NFL quality) is healthier....and have recently moved LB Jordan Moore (6-3/210 sprinter) to RB to help in spots....and Frog D can't tackle him..........

Match-up wise...both offenses should struggle yes...but Frog O....might be able to move it some anyway....Boykin a much better runner....and a better passer than Maxwell...(Boykin 59%...15/9...130 PR  vs Maxwell 53%...13/9...109 PR).....Frogs have great speed at WR.....

Sparty running game was hit and miss for sure..ran well only vs Minny...EMich and Neb.....effectively vs Boise and CMich.....but shut out mostly vs rest....like Indiana for one......I don't think they move it at all vs TCU.......

note: keep in mind the offenses TCU faced....vs what Sparty has been seeing.....especially note the caliber of QB's......I see what ......ONE and a half maybe?.......

Boise St.
@ Central Mich.
Notre Dame
Eastern Mich.
Ohio St.
@ Indiana
Iowa
@ 19 Michigan
@ Wisconsin
23 Nebraska
21 Northwestern
@ Minnesota

*Mich St D faced......the #37 ranked schedule of offenses .... #98 ranked passing attacks.......


While TCU D......#4 toughest offenses / #2 passing...1st few lame yes

Grambling
@ Kansas
Virginia
@ Southern Methodist
Iowa St.
@ Baylor
Texas Tech
@ Oklahoma St.
@ West Virginia
Kansas St.
@ Texas
Oklahoma

*Patterson DESPERATELY needs a win here as a springboard for next year...when it appears they can compete to win the Big 12....Texas sucks yes...but Frogs did go to Austin and win Thanksgiving nite and spank a Horn team with MO...really needing a win....
But you're right....wagering hard earned cash vs a tough / underrated Sparty team maybe a dicey proposition..........


Hard to like CMU and Ohio.  Wonder about mindset at Rutgers after blowing Orange Bowl and landing in Tidy Bowl vs. 6-6 ACC team

  *wouldn't touch either....(gun to the head) leans....
I would go with the dog in a bowl neither cares about..................but
Ohio ...really beat up in trenches.....who didn't expect to be in a bowl really....is kinda dangerous here after a great start...and terrible finish....they could play their azz off vs bowl VIRGIN ULM...or never get off the bus   *(in-game or half-time wager the way to go)
  *I would have to dig into the reason for the mid season slide.....injuries I assume

I think Rutgers will be fired up to be facing the Hokies...Hokies not so much vs Rutgers maybe.....?
I do like the Rutgers D vs Hokie O....especially with lay-off factors..... VT last game 11/24....RU 11/29

BOL and Merry Christmas Skipster...............

happy new year to you, my friend.  may you fulfill every goal you set.
 
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Posted: #87
Bookie- concerning the KSU/UO game...I'll be wagering KSU on house money.  Not a huge play, and I'll wait on this line to bump to 10+ which should happen by game time.  I will also place a wager on the ML.

Two teams that are so freakin' opposite...yet very similar in so many ways:

-Both get the turnovers and make points. UO 30 forced TO's on the season = 136 points...not like they needed the points .  I don't have a similar number for KSU (I picked that 136 off a web site), but I'll wager my mortgage it's nearly as impressive.
-Turnover margin per game...KSU #1 and UO #2.
-Takeaways per game UO #1 and KSU #5.
-both teams do NOT miss tackles.  Duh?  Not many teams play fundamental defense like the Ducks or Wildcats.  Why that's a problem for so many teams, I'll never know.  But I digress...
-both teams rush the passer very judiciously...while fans want more, both coaching staffs use their rushes very effectively and get their stops and sacks when nobody else sees it coming.  (Ex: KSU sent the "blitz" only 4-5 times vs Texas 30ish pas attempts...result on each blitz = nothing for UT...maybe 10 yds total for UT on those blitzes?).

-Lots of similarities...but let's not get nuts about it.  These offenses couldn't be more different.  UO blazes "catch me if you can"....KSU is more punch you in the face "give me 3 yards and I'll take 5, thank you".

-Who will get more 3rd down conversions?  UO will get many attempts at this...how many will KSU get?  
-Concerning possessions....KSU in a single possession will either: go three and out...or pick up a 1st down and punt inside your 15...in either case, they will erase clock at a clip that makes Father Time look like an offensive lineman running a 40 yd dash.  And it kills.

-if it comes down to punting and kicking FG's...no brainer...KSU wins.

My opinion:  if both teams show up to play, KSU covers.  Snyder is winless in his last 4 (?) bowl attempts.  This team (although put together with duct tape in the off-season) returns many players from last seasons's disappointing loss to the Hogs (a beat-down in the trenches, btw).  Comparing QB's...FR Mariota is hell on wheels...but I'll take SR Klein every fuckin' time, who is equally hell on wheels...not as quick, but he reads defense like Einstien.  Klein got snubbed by media...will that motivate he and his guys?  Snyder didn't get COY...will that motivate?  Dont' know...just fodder.


 
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Posted: #88
happy holidays to you bookie love your ucla play feel better laying less then fg is definitely a play when they should put up 40 plus
 
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Posted: #89
SATURDAY , DEC 22

12:00 PM             Line                      Betting Trend
                      Open    Current    Spread    Money    O/U
ECaro   (8-4)     67.0      65          17%         57%    93%
ULL      (8-4)     -4.5       -6           83%        43%      7%


VALUE
  *with ECU...line should be 3' or so

Travel/SOS/weather/injuries
  *ULL 123 miles away...ECU 835
  *ULL played tougher schedule (#55 > #64)
  *dome
  * no key inj

Trends
  *game - 7-0 OVER...dogs 5-2....SBelt teams are 5-2 SU/6-1 ATS
  *ECU - 1-5 SU / 2-4 ATS in bowls...dogs 6-3/7-2...last bowl win in '07...Ruffin only 1 bowl loss as interim
  *ULL- won their only bowl here LY ...20-5 ATS in away games
  *conf- dogs  are 11-5-1 in CUSA bowls...UNDER is 7-0
       Sun Belt is 8-2 OVER when total 55+...dogs are 8-1-1 in SB games.....SB is 0-3 ATS when favored   

MOTIVATION
  *no real edge...ULL had a huge comeback / storm the field win here last year as a dog to SDSU...now back favored to 8-4 CUSA
   ECU missed bowl LY....and no wins since '07 Hawaii Bowl (Chris Johnson show)....so slight lean to Pirates


MATCH-UP
  *teams are similar...EC with the better D...(ULL last in SBelt in TD)....ULL with the more explosive QB and O...both should have great trouble stopping the other...
ULL emerged from their bye really tough (esp offense)...dominating a tough ULM....almost beating Fla...suffering no letdown vs WKU (winning despite 4 TO's)...finishing with covers at FAU and SAla

EC struggling with a (hot but weak) Tulane and allowed Marshall 633 yards in 65-59 OT win...EC failed to compete in every tough game they were in..(S Caro...N Caro...UCF and Navy)....they are a tough team to beat at HOME...but can't really be trusted for a cover...or outright win here ......also....recall ULL even has the most accurate K in CFB history.......    

Recommendation
  *Looks to me that ULL and QB Broadway should be able to simply outscore EC...But a motivated EC ....along with an improved QB Carden and now healthy group of RB's ....should be able to trade points most of the way.....
 
Problems?...not much....don't see either D rising up here...EC will have a tough time keeping ULL under 40.....a play on EC maybe risky...as they have been off 1 week longer than ULL (last game 12/1) 

$$ solid play OVER 65...small play/lean EC +6  
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Posted: #90
I played both of the dogs today.  more of gut feeling.  think that over makes sense.  will probably lay a few sheckles.  
 
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Posted: #91
3:30 PM              Line                          Betting Trend
                      Open   Current       Spread     Money   O/U
Wash   (7-5)    46.0     44.5             33%     53%     43%
Boise  (10-2)    -7.5     -5.5              67%     47%     57%

VALUE
  *none...line is about right

Travel/SOS/weather/injuries
  *Wash 875 miles away....Boise 522
  *UW played 20th toughest schedule...Boise #113
  *PARTLY SUNNY, SOUTHEAST WIND 7-12. KICKOFF TEMP 54
  *no key injuries

Trends
  * game - fav is 8-2 SU / 6-4 ATS...UNDER is 9-4

  * BSU - Peterson 4-2/5-1 ATS...Boise 9-3 ATS bowls...OVER is 9-1 as a fav
      Broncos 3rd st time here...won both by 27 pt av/g...26-8 ATS in away games
 
* UW - 4-1 ATS as bowl dog...Sark 1-1/1-1...

* conf- ***Pac 12 has covered 15 of last 18 games as 5.5 pt+ bowl dog...
  MTW teams are 7-0 SU/6-1 ATS vs BCS conf teams
    

MOTIVATION
  *Boise maybe slightly down coming back here for 3rd st year...so slight edge to the Huskies (lost LY to Baylor)


MATCH-UP
  *no significant edge...Boise fairly weak offensively with a game manager type QB....but should be able to run some vs a weak run D (UW #10 in PAC stopping run at 4.5/rush)... Boise D still tough...bringing heat as usual and forcing TO's....
 
 Huskies with a pretty strong pass D (nation's 11th best)...with 17 INT (also forced 15 fumbles)....UW with a lotta talent on the offensive side...but injuries / weak OL play...and a tough schedule.... have limited them TY    
Broncos with the ST edge...but still have a terrible K....(have not made a FG longer than 32 yards in 3 years)

Recommendation
  *tough to judge Washington here as they have played great at home (beat Tree and Oreg St)...but terrible on the road (lost to Wazzu...destroyed at Zona....didn't compete at Oregon or LSU)
Look for the Huskies to stay close in a low scoring game...small play on Wash ML (+180) not bad...wouldn't expect it...but no doubt they CAN win here....

Problems?
  *Betting against Boise maybe never a good idea...as they will play hard...limit their mistakes...and take advantage of their opponents
I do like Wash here and bet them at +7...at 5-6 might back off slightly...match-up says UNDER...trends say OVER .....
  *no surprise if UW in control most of game ...and then allow Boise to come back and win late.....

$    small play Wash +5...lean UNDER
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Posted: #92
Quote Originally Posted by ksuwins:

Bookie- concerning the KSU/UO game...I'll be wagering KSU on house money.  Not a huge play, and I'll wait on this line to bump to 10+ which should happen by game time.  I will also place a wager on the ML.

Two teams that are so freakin' opposite...yet very similar in so many ways:

-Both get the turnovers and make points. UO 30 forced TO's on the season = 136 points...not like they needed the points .  I don't have a similar number for KSU (I picked that 136 off a web site), but I'll wager my mortgage it's nearly as impressive.
-Turnover margin per game...KSU #1 and UO #2.
-Takeaways per game UO #1 and KSU #5.
-both teams do NOT miss tackles.  Duh?  Not many teams play fundamental defense like the Ducks or Wildcats.  Why that's a problem for so many teams, I'll never know.  But I digress...
-both teams rush the passer very judiciously...while fans want more, both coaching staffs use their rushes very effectively and get their stops and sacks when nobody else sees it coming.  (Ex: KSU sent the "blitz" only 4-5 times vs Texas 30ish pas attempts...result on each blitz = nothing for UT...maybe 10 yds total for UT on those blitzes?).

-Lots of similarities...but let's not get nuts about it.  These offenses couldn't be more different.  UO blazes "catch me if you can"....KSU is more punch you in the face "give me 3 yards and I'll take 5, thank you".

-Who will get more 3rd down conversions?  UO will get many attempts at this...how many will KSU get?  
-Concerning possessions....KSU in a single possession will either: go three and out...or pick up a 1st down and punt inside your 15...in either case, they will erase clock at a clip that makes Father Time look like an offensive lineman running a 40 yd dash.  And it kills.

-if it comes down to punting and kicking FG's...no brainer...KSU wins.

My opinion:  if both teams show up to play, KSU covers.  Snyder is winless in his last 4 (?) bowl attempts.  This team (although put together with duct tape in the off-season) returns many players from last seasons's disappointing loss to the Hogs (a beat-down in the trenches, btw).  Comparing QB's...FR Mariota is hell on wheels...but I'll take SR Klein every fuckin' time, who is equally hell on wheels...not as quick, but he reads defense like Einstien.  Klein got snubbed by media...will that motivate he and his guys?  Snyder didn't get COY...will that motivate?  Dont' know...just fodder.




damm fine breakdown there man.......

what I love about this one.....is you have a really strong team in Kan St...with very strong SENIOR leaders....that played ONE bad game ....and now they can't play ?.....while sure at one point they appeared to have a great shot to play for a BCS title....but when the YEAR BEGAN.....I think the Fiesta Bowl was more along the lines of where they expected to be anyway...

The Ducks had their eyes on a BCS title all along....the Fiesta Bowl is not where they wanted to be at all....
In addition....they are a young team...now facing NCAA issues....with a HC rumored to be yearning for an NFL job....Duck fans I know even have no interest in going to this one....

Extra prep time in bowls has slowed the Ducks O somewhat....and at almost 10 points...KSU looks like a strong play to me....in a probable (lower) scoring game   
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Posted: #93
Forgot......
match-up wise...

The problem teams have with Oregon (defensively)..
is they can't accurately simulate the Ducks offense in practice...so when they get in the game.....they're like
HOLY CRAP ....WTF is going on here ????
  *and it takes them a half (if ever)....to get used to the pace

YES...the Ducks maybe do it better....but Kan St has seen this style already 5X this year...and handled it very well (except Baylor)....so I think they have an edge here too............ 
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Posted: #94
shakey.....skipster......BOL today boys..........



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Posted: #95
Again Book, great analysis, leaving "nothing" out!....Thanks and best of luck!....
 
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Posted: #96
Quote Originally Posted by bookieassassin:

we'll be opposite in several this bowl season........

Cuz....I like

N Dame......Kan St.....prolly OU.....Wisky maybe....not Nebraska ha....DUKE....

*in spirit a match-up guy myself......(obviously)
but grew tired of seeing so many teams just not do what they're 'supposed to do'....so now I 1st look for the 'hungrier' team....the one with an edge....and see if the stats support it..........usually  


Well Let's see:
N. Dame
BA  N. Dame
WG Bama -150 to win BCS (large play)

K. Sate
BA   K State
WG  Ore. (small play )

OU
BA   OU
WG  TaM (small play )

WISKY
BA   Wisky
WG  Tree

UGA
BA   UGA
WG  UGA

DUKE
BA   Duke
WG  Cinn (small play )

Note: Small play means little to no fundamental edge.

Teams I've played so far this bowl season are : Teams in blue won
and covered. Teams in red did not.All had fundamental edge.

1. UTSU ( teased with Ariz/ Nevada Over)
2. BYU
3. UCF
4. ULL
5. Boise St.

Many of the major Bowl games I'll just be a spectator as I only
have action on 14 of 35 games.

One of these days we'll have to sit down and talk fundamental
handicapping. If I ever fly into DFW, the Lone Stars are on me !!!

Best of Luck, Bud
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Posted: #97
ust a handful of games with one-sided match-ups really....where one team may not be able
  *to move the ball
  *and/or stop their opponent

Geo/Nebraska
Fla St/NIU
Okie St/Purdue

*you'll be on all 3.......

then to a lesser degree.....maybe considering a talent disparity as well.....and/or one team with a significant off/def edge
 
TT/MInny
LSU/Clemson
Fla/Louisville
Oregon/KSt
Bama/ND

  *can't pull the trigger on LSU for some reason.....

also....
Ark St/Kent St
Tree/Wisky
Ariz St/Navy

* Lone Star you wish....it's gonna be Stella A.
   *Shiner maybe to avoid man-card violation......

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Posted: #98
It's actually which team has the better "game management"
skills that I look for.That's why I can't play some teams.They
may have "killer" offensive and/or defensive stats,but they don't
manage the game properly and let their opp.get the better of them
when you are "absolutely sure" that they can cover the spread.

UGA  I think they have something to prove.

FSU  No pick for me.

Ok St. I'm not on this one either.

LSU/ Clemson  No pick for me.

Fla / L'ville  No pick for me.

Hofbrau Original



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Posted: #99
no Fla St?.....yeah that NC St game did it for me....

you probably know about these already....here's a couple of websites .....with 'beyond the usual stats'....kinda stuff


*deals with offensive/defensive efficiency....field position...+++

          https://footballoutsiders.com/stats/fei

*BTW...one of the best at playing the field position game...is LSU.....their great P (Wing > punts with either leg / wtf)....is OUT

*this one great for football nerds

        https://www.footballstudyhall.com/

If you ever want to save some time on match-up stuff.....Steele puts out a great newsletter (Power Plays)....where he predicts (accurately) all stats.....
  *available thru his 'secret' website....Northcoast Sports   

SECRET...because his goal is to be legit...a nationally recognized CFB expert (not a tout).....which he has done....having a vote for many post-season awards
  *which BTW gives him an 'in'.....to talk with coaches/players ++++.....something no tout can even think of.....then he turns around and sells picks under NC Sports.................................................genius
 

The impediment to action advances action - what stands in the way becomes the way.
 
 
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Posted: #100
The NC St. game is EXACTLY the kind of game I'm referring
to.How about LSU @ Auburn?

Thanks, I'll look into those sites.Maybe they can make capping
a little easier.


Helping Kama'aina to beat their " Local " since 1994.
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