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BOWL GUIDE 2016-17

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Posted: #51
BA: Lots of great info here, thanks for your time!
Also, Thorpe: Some helpful info as well!
Thanks fellas! 
 
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Posted: #52
Quote Originally Posted by bookieassassin:


Army  +10


Penn St  +7'
Vandy  +3
Minny  +7'
NW  +3
Fla St  +8
Kentucky  +3
Clemson +3'
LSU  -3'

back later boys............. 


Sorry to ask this BA, but are these all one unit plays or just Army?  I usually wager $100 on your one unit plays and $50 on the smaller plays.  thanks man
 
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Posted: #53
BA is imo the best bowl game bettor on this forum, obviously every year is different, so youll have to decide where you back him, and where you lay off.  He's clearly been betting college football for years, recognizes patterns, and does the work.  If you have only been betting for a few years, or dont spend at least an hour figuring out why you like a certain team, you will probably be much better off just backing BA's picks.  
 
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Posted: #54
Quote Originally Posted by bookieassassin:

WARNING................................


I already see (many) handicapping these bowl games like a regular season game game.........

The FIRST question you ALWAYS ask yourself...
  *is THIS where they wanted to be...when the season began?....and you go from there

When Wisconsin reported for fall camp.........if told..... bust your azz for several months?.....your REWARD would be to play stinkin' W Michigan in the Cotton Bowl.............all good?...............NOPE

Again.....stop thinking GAME DAY......
   *hahaha BA you idiot.....oh they'll be fired up !!!.....you just wait !
HOW.....could they not?.............................


THINK 1st day / week of  bowl practice....just lost a really tough game.....your season is really OVER ain't it.....now you gotta start OVER again....for WHAT?.....to spend NYE in Arlington TX (actually Dallas / Fort Worth)  < not much better

  *getting in QUALITY work?...........no way

  ** can they get it together ENOUGH to win / cover? ............is their talent edge ENOUGH to overcome any of this?.....will their (leaving for ) NFL draft soon guys ....cruise here / not get hurt?????

A great example of this was Texas / TCU
  *especially since I made this mistake too...... 

Did Texas players REALLY want to send Charlie off with a W?............sure they did
  * plus you saw how bad TCU was at home vs Okie St / Kansas State

What happened ?.....most likely
 *were Horns focused during their week of workouts?.....were their minds on TCU.....or on something else?.............

They got ZERO quality work in no doubt....
  *FIRED UP?......like crazy..........immediately got pounded by a WEAK TCU team........who WERE focused like crazy ...all week you bet............



this is PURE gold 


may i copy this and put in it my BOWL THREAD ????
BEST OF HEALTH, HAPPINESS,WEALTH, BLESSINGS and LUCK TO ALL !!
 
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Posted: #55
Quote Originally Posted by dkite22:

Hey BA, thanks for your contributions regarding bowl games. I have never done with bowl games so hoping to match my plays against a few others. Has your bowl philosophy treated you well in the past? I'm guessing it has been profitable and I'm hoping it continues this year!


here's basically how I do it here......
   *kinda same as usual....just more emphasis on emotional stuff

1)    Am I getting a good deal?....or am I getting screwed?
           * LINE value

2)    MINDSET.....going into the game?
         *pre-season goal to be here?
        *what happened their last bowl (or 2)?
        *CONTENT?....or more work to be done?

2)    How has their HC prepared them for previous bowls?
          *and team's bowl history in general 

3)    Can they stop / slow down / DISRUPT... what their opponent likes to do? (offensively) 
           *and vice-versa

4)     THEN....other smaller stuff > injuries / crowd edge .........

5)     How will this game play out?
           *eg.    team A with the much tougher D (after a long lay-off) should control a lower scoring 1H...slow starter team B with top QB/running game...should take control 2H
                      $   maybe no play on the side.....but here maybe 1H under... 2H team B and/or OVER     


here were my plays last year.....
  *regression to the mean?.......> maybe FADE me this year ha

TOP PLAYS
1-1
Ole Miss -4       W
Oregon +1'        L

ONE UNIT 
  10-3
Duke  +3            W
Tulsa  +14          W
Wazzu -2'           W
Nebraska +7         W
Temple +1           L
USF  +3             L
Boise -3            W
BGreen -5           L
Baylor  +3           W
Wash -2'/LSU -1      W
WVirg  -1            T
ND +2' 2H            W
WV / Ariz St 2H over W
Bama +100 in-game    W


smaller  
  *14-8

WM -2'                   W
New Mexico  +10          W
La Tech -1'              W
USF / WKU 1H under 34    W
Akron +4' 1H             W
Ga Southern BG over 63'  W
Cinn   ML                L
UW / SMiss  OVER 51'     W
Navy -1 1H               W
CM +10' / over 42        L
NCSt +3 1H               L
USC -3                   L
Memphis +3               L
Hou +7                   W
Texas A&M +5             L
Clemson +4               W
NW +7                    L
Michigan -3              W
Penn St +7               T
Ohio St / ND over 55     W
WV / ASU 1H under 32     L
Oregon / TCU 1H under 38  W
Kan St / Ark over 55'     W
JSU +3                           L


really small 
  *13-2

BG-2' 2H            L
Neb +3 2H           W
USF / WKU over 2H   W
Tulsa TT over 2H    W
Akron / USU over 2H W
Pitt 3rd Q          W
Temple 3rd qtr      W
WM 4th qtr          W
App St 2H           W
AF 2H TT over       L
Miss St 4th Q       W
USC / Wisky 1H under W
USC -3 2H            W
Georgia 3Q           W
PSU 4Q               W
Clem  +4 1H          W
Clem/Bama 1H under   L

NDSU / JSU 1Q under  W
NDSU / JSU 2Q over   W
JSU 3Q               W
NDSU 4Q              W
Bama 4Q              W



 BOL DK.................................




The impediment to action advances action - what stands in the way becomes the way.
 
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Posted: #56
Bookieassassin.....Great work again this Season...and a Very Solid Bowl Season last Year...Love to Read your Posts and see what you are Thinking..Thanks for all the Info..I don't have as much Free time as in years past...So you help cut some of my Time down....Thanks and BOL.... Hammer em..
Lo, they do call to me. In the Halls of Valhalla! Where the Brave may live Forever
 
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Posted: #57
Quote Originally Posted by DoubleUp4Life:




this is PURE gold 


may i copy this and put in it my BOWL THREAD ????


sure man...............

yep I think that's a better way to look at motivation.....
  *  INSTEAD....of the ol' just being fired up!.......stuff
The impediment to action advances action - what stands in the way becomes the way.
 
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Posted: #58
Quote Originally Posted by JuiceBook:







The impediment to action advances action - what stands in the way becomes the way.
 
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Posted: #59
Quote Originally Posted by dkite22:



Sorry to ask this BA, but are these all one unit plays or just Army?  I usually wager $100 on your one unit plays and $50 on the smaller plays.  thanks man


sorry pal.....shoulda made a note

*all small stuff.....at the hated -120 juice it seems......'cept for Army and those derty Criminoles getting a big fat 8.....NW I don't really like that much ha......for some reason I like to bet them as a dog sight unseen (subconsciously....scrappy white boys like myself?......)

The reason why I don't worry too much about designating picks....is because recently my (a bit) smaller plays......(.50-.75 unit)....do better............ 
The impediment to action advances action - what stands in the way becomes the way.
 
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Posted: #60
Quote Originally Posted by bookieassassin:

Conf SU / ATS records for bowls last 5 years.....
   *think the SEC is overrated?......here's the time to step up > put some of that hard earned cash behind it > get RICH as helll

                     SU            ATS

 AAC          6-12             7-11
ACC          22-26           22-26
B10            19-25          20-24
B12            18-19         15-22
CUSA        18-8             17-9
IND              6-7               5 -8
MAC          12-16         13-15
MTW         13-18          14-17
P12           24-19          24-19
SEC          35-16          32-19
SUN            7-8              6-9

AAC with some Big East mixed in.....

B10 plays some tough bowl games every year vs the SEC.  P12's only really good Bowl game is the Rose Bowl.
 
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Posted: #61
guess it wouldn't kill me to start getting organized a bit....
  *added some to earlier smaller plays.....added Memphis



LIKE

Fla St  +8
WF  +14
Memphis  +5
Clemson +3'


smaller

Penn St  +7'
LSU  -3'
S Caro  +10'
Kentucky  +3
Vandy  +3
Minny  +7'


small

NW  +3


















The impediment to action advances action - what stands in the way becomes the way.
 
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Posted: #62
Quote Originally Posted by thorpe:


B10 plays some tough bowl games every year vs the SEC.  P12's only really good Bowl game is the Rose Bowl.


PAC12 gets screwed beyond belief......what p-u-s-s-y  agreed to the stinking ALAMO Bowl (a large toilet).....as their #2/3 whatever ?
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Posted: #63
bookie, I respect your handicapping a great deal sir. I am delighted to see we have come to the same conclusion on two games I picked before reading their excellent thread.

1. Clemson +3. I put this game at pick. Deshaun's run game will be unleashed and their offense is dynamic, and defense more than good enough. They are on a mission to meet Bama. Took them ML

2. Wake +14. Could not believe this line. I confidently took Temple against Navy SU and they easily delivered. However, Vegas has clearly overcorrected for their 10+ straight covers with this game. Their offense is not dynamic enough to be laying 2 TDs against a pretty good defense. More importantly, Wake has no pressure and will be very focused. Temple key players are seniors= content. They will not have to same preparation as Wake due to losing their father figure in Rhule. This is where Dave Clawson wants to be.
 
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Posted: #64
will look at the websites you posted as resources. hopefully we agree on the other games too
 
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Posted: #65
Quote Originally Posted by achirico2:

Bookie are those all your picks above?



Tell you what....................................

What I wouldn't give right now....... to be a redneck rooster on steroids.........and you were a hound dog chained up in my backyard......https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ocJ1GTnmO-w


Haven't even gotten started yet man c'mon................
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Posted: #66
Thanks for the replies above as your information and guidance is extremely helpful.  As mentioned before, this is the time of year when I typically give back all my winnings from the regular season.  It's just tough as hell to sit on the sidelines when there is a bowl game on every day!  I am committed to following your plays and am thankful for your contributions.  Most won't admit that they follow your plays but this old man is willing to admit it! 

Based on busy life schedule, there is no way I'll be able to catch all of the 2nd half plays and in-game plays but I feel confident just playing all of your full game selections for equal units per play.  You are correct, your smaller plays have been kicking behind here lately.  I figure I'll ride with all full game plays and I'm pretty confident I will come out a winner! 

Thanks again brother and can't wait for the first bowl game kick-off!
 
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Posted: #67
Good luck this bowl season, bookie. Wasn't around this season, but opened your thread first. Always a fantastic read and learned so much from you. Happy holidays.
 
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Posted: #68
Unbeeleevable CFB  bowl contribution 

COVERS appreciates all your hard  work and advice heading into another great bowl season 

but...where is the white/dark jersey angle 


 
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Posted: #69
Quote Originally Posted by firesox:

bookie, I respect your handicapping a great deal sir. I am delighted to see we have come to the same conclusion on two games I picked before reading their excellent thread.

1. Clemson +3. I put this game at pick. Deshaun's run game will be unleashed and their offense is dynamic, and defense more than good enough. They are on a mission to meet Bama. Took them ML

2. Wake +14. Could not believe this line. I confidently took Temple against Navy SU and they easily delivered. However, Vegas has clearly overcorrected for their 10+ straight covers with this game. Their offense is not dynamic enough to be laying 2 TDs against a pretty good defense. More importantly, Wake has no pressure and will be very focused. Temple key players are seniors= content. They will not have to same preparation as Wake due to losing their father figure in Rhule. This is where Dave Clawson wants to be.


LIKE THAT WAY OF THINKING FS........
  *don't like?......showing me up in my own thread.................



Because I was just gonna bring up another example of this.....

ALTHOUGH.....many here might laugh at this angle >>
  * a coach as a 'father figure'....(because like me...your father was around......a little TOO much ha)....for many of these young men their coach fills a huge VOID in their life...........SO when he LEAVES......BEFORE THE DAMM SEASON IS OVER.....
  **  it can be HUGE.......because essentially....they have been 'abandoned'.....yet again

note:    IF you think...."hey these are grown azz men....it's no big deal"......YOU ARE WRONG
   *and if you think having NO DAD around ....doesn't have a PROFOUND effect....on you.....forever....you are way wrong.....and lucky too BTW...

Which brings us to the ultimate HC / father figure.....
            Willie Taggart

  *as many kids he recruits... are from broken homes / old man long one .....this is no doubt his recruiting 'pitch'......as well....a promise to assume this role.....Charlie Strong does the same thing.....as many others do

SO NOW......he is GONE.......and USF is a 10' pt favorite vs S Carolina.................
  *not a very good team you're right......but looks like a REALLY tall order to me.....plus USF had ambitions of being in a top 6 bowl......rightfully so too......but here they are in Birmingham with no coach wtf

S Carolina?........no great thrill sure...but to lose here or get blown out....would be a huge step backwards......Muschamp and staff need this one in a big way
  *players know ......that the OFF-SEASON.....gets a (little bit) less miserable with a W here.....nasty loss?............

Match-up?.....not that bad
  SC offense of course stinks.....but so does USF's #100 D

USF O ?.....of course one of nation's most EXPLOSIVE....but SC D is tough vs that type of O.....#20..... ( #6 passing / #17 on early downs too.... but only # 70 running vs explosive plays.....but tough in making key stops (#5)......and closing out drives (#23)

ST are about the same (SC 46 to USF 41) .....SC does has a #9 to #26 edge in TO margin

As with any other angle......I wouldn't get too excited ....
       $  who TF knows Willie might stay tight with his players still >>  they understand it's all about money anyway   >>  SC shows up disinterested and gets pounded.....
     
BUT....to me looks like a great SPOT for S Carolina to come away with a nice W over a tough team....or certainly keep it tight.... 
The impediment to action advances action - what stands in the way becomes the way.
 
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Posted: #70
BA 
 
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Posted: #71
Quote Originally Posted by Crusher13:

Unbeeleevable CFB  bowl contribution 

COVERS appreciates all your hard  work and advice heading into another great bowl season 

but...where is the white/dark jersey angle 





......man those guys drive me nuts

BUT..............thinking back....man those cool dark jerseys always made me feel a bit better.....more 'battle ready' than the boring white ones.....
     *as FRAGILE as the human psyche is....it wouldn't surprise me at all....if teams in the dark jerseys win more games........but over a REALLY long haul .........

BOL man............................



The impediment to action advances action - what stands in the way becomes the way.
 
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Posted: #72
punk azz Lane K.....
* done deal at Houston supposedly
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Posted: #73
This is great stuff....man this must take you forever to compile???
 
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Posted: #74
Quote Originally Posted by achirico2:


When is your final list coming out my guy??


I'm gonna have them delivered DIRECTLY to you...........SOON
  *something like this

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P8ciVBQixpU
The impediment to action advances action - what stands in the way becomes the way.
 
 
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Posted: #75
Quote Originally Posted by bookieassassin:



LIKE THAT WAY OF THINKING FS........
  *don't like?......showing me up in my own thread.................



Because I was just gonna bring up another example of this.....

ALTHOUGH.....many here might laugh at this angle >>
  * a coach as a 'father figure'....(because like me...your father was around......a little TOO much ha)....for many of these young men their coach fills a huge VOID in their life...........SO when he LEAVES......BEFORE THE DAMM SEASON IS OVER.....
  **  it can be HUGE.......because essentially....they have been 'abandoned'.....yet again

note:    IF you think...."hey these are grown azz men....it's no big deal"......YOU ARE WRONG
   *and if you think having NO DAD around ....doesn't have a PROFOUND effect....on you.....forever....you are way wrong.....and lucky too BTW...

Which brings us to the ultimate HC / father figure.....
            Willie Taggart

  *as many kids he recruits... are from broken homes / old man long one .....this is no doubt his recruiting 'pitch'......as well....a promise to assume this role.....Charlie Strong does the same thing.....as many others do

SO NOW......he is GONE.......and USF is a 10' pt favorite vs S Carolina.................
  *not a very good team you're right......but looks like a REALLY tall order to me.....plus USF had ambitions of being in a top 6 bowl......rightfully so too......but here they are in Birmingham with no coach wtf

S Carolina?........no great thrill sure...but to lose here or get blown out....would be a huge step backwards......Muschamp and staff need this one in a big way
  *players know ......that the OFF-SEASON.....gets a (little bit) less miserable with a W here.....nasty loss?............

Match-up?.....not that bad
  SC offense of course stinks.....but so does USF's #100 D

USF O ?.....of course one of nation's most EXPLOSIVE....but SC D is tough vs that type of O.....#20..... ( #6 passing / #17 on early downs too.... but only # 70 running vs explosive plays.....but tough in making key stops (#5)......and closing out drives (#23)

ST are about the same (SC 46 to USF 41) .....SC does has a #9 to #26 edge in TO margin

As with any other angle......I wouldn't get too excited ....
       $  who TF knows Willie might stay tight with his players still >>  they understand it's all about money anyway   >>  SC shows up disinterested and gets pounded.....
     
BUT....to me looks like a great SPOT for S Carolina to come away with a nice W over a tough team....or certainly keep it tight.... 

Not trying to show you up man, just like when great minds think a like

Was looking at that game too as soon as the news broke. Muschamp is a real players coach, he will have them pumped and focused. But my worry is their offense with a rookie QB and having to face Quinton Flowers. I'm staying the hell away. Muschamp did wonders with that talent level this year
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