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BOWL GUIDE 2016-17

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Posted: #76
Any recommendation for an online book to make sure I can play quarters and in-game plays?  I have a local now and he only does full games. 

Thanks in advance. 
 
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Posted: #77
Quote Originally Posted by dkite22:

Any recommendation for an online book to make sure I can play quarters and in-game plays?  I have a local now and he only does full games. 

Thanks in advance. 


seems like quarter plays are coming out later / pulled earlier....
  * I've used 5Dimes for that stuff / Bookmaker for in-game
    there's maybe a better source?....only other book I use is BetOnline......they do both ............

The impediment to action advances action - what stands in the way becomes the way.
 
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Posted: #78
best in the business capping insight....good to be on 3 with you so far...great season and finish strong bud, BOL
 
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Posted: #79
 Great stuff BA.......always appreciate your work for this forum.
 
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Posted: #80
Thank you for the write up, sir!  
 
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Posted: #81
Quote Originally Posted by bookieassassin:

punk azz Lane K.....
* done deal at Houston supposedly
Kiffin not going to U of H. Applewhite promoted to HC per the U of H website and the Houston Chronicle
 
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Posted: #82
Good stuff BA...

Do you have your own lines for the bowl games? They were pretty useful last season
 
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Posted: #83
Any thoughts on Bama not winning the title?

Think I'm calling the sportsbook manager to put it in today.

Am I that crazy?
 
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Posted: #84
Love it! I'll defientely be using this on my 8 team bowl Parlay. Much appreciated BA!!!
 
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Posted: #85
BA I follow your forum every week. Outstanding job sir.
Hope you have a great bowl season and thanks for all the hard work.

 
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Posted: #86
Quote Originally Posted by bookieassassin:




Tell you what....................................

What I wouldn't give right now....... to be a redneck rooster on steroids.........and you were a hound dog chained up in my backyard......https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ocJ1GTnmO-w


Haven't even gotten started yet man c'mon................

On and off Covers for awhile but first time reading your threads.....H... S... this is good stuff....hilarious 
 
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Posted: #87
BA - as always

You mentioned Arkansas State twice in this thread; as a team to bet on, and that they maybe roll.  As the matchup is a virtual true road game against UCF, do you still hold that opinion?

Focus: seems like a wash.  Ark St got blown out last year by La Tech which fits your criteria, but UCF was 0-12 LY, and now gets a home bowl game.  Lost last 2 to good teams in Tulsa and USF, eventually seems like that solid D got tired, but now they get a long break?!

Coaches: Seems like a wash as well.  Both good ones IMO.

Conf strength: Not even close.  Neither is SOS overall.  UCF has played the much harder schedule, and plays in a much more difficult conference.  Look at Arkansas States wins - eek, cept for the Troy win (5-0 turnovers)

No Common Oppponets

Distractions: Havent heard of anyone looking at Frost, nor BA.

INJ/SUSP: UCF seems a bit healthier at this point

Crowd: Its in Orlando, in the stadium that used to be there home stadium (granted they stopped playing there in 2006), but you would have to assume a huge HF advantage.

Match-up:  Both play really good D on paper.  UCF offense has been pretty bad all year, but do tend to get TO and FP to push a few in.  Arky St must pass effectively to move the ball.  Not so easy vs. UCF  (#12)

Line: right on the metrics.  UCF -6 is the right line.

Due to SOS, CONF strength, and Crowd, I am leaning UCF in this one.  What did I miss, or misread?

GL with the bowls
 
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Posted: #88
I like UCF in that one... I am thinking about taking Lamar Jackson -2200 to win the heisman.  I obviously dont like risking $2200, but I cant see him losing the award, and think it's probably an easy $100, but i'm not sure... anybody have an opinion?
 
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Posted: #89
Dust off that large bank you have my friend, and load up on the  Houston Cougers this coming Saturday, as the Cougers are going to give Major Applewhite his first win AND COVER as a Head Coach.

It is my belief they will play there heart out for the guy to get him this win, and the defense will stop the ground attack of San Diego right in its tracks. I also do not feel the defense of the Aztecs can stop QB Ward the offensive of Houston.
SNITCHES end up being bitches, or end up with stitches, and in ditches! #REALITY
 
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Posted: #90
Dust off that large bank you have my friend, and load up on the  Houston Cougers this coming Saturday, as the Cougers are going to give Major Applewhite his first win AND COVER as a Head Coach.

It is my belief they will play there heart out for the guy to get him this win, and the defense will stop the ground attack of San Diego right in its tracks. I also do not feel the defense of the Aztecs can stop QB Ward the offensive of Houston.
SNITCHES end up being bitches, or end up with stitches, and in ditches! #REALITY
 
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Posted: #91
Sorry for the double posting as I am experiencing internet connection problems at the moment.
SNITCHES end up being bitches, or end up with stitches, and in ditches! #REALITY
 
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Posted: #92
added a few.........

like

Army  +10
S Caro  +10'
Memphis  +5
Fla St  +8
WF  +14
Clemson +3'
Houston  -3


smaller

N Mex  -1 / over 57
Penn St  +7'
LSU  -3'
Kentucky  +3
Vandy  +3
Minny  +7'
Georgia P
La Tech / Navy  OVER 66
WM / Wisky  OVER  54

small

NW  +3
NC / Tree  OVER   54



considering / waiting....

UCF
Tulsa
Mem/WKU  under (1H  likely)
TCU  / Ga  OVER  49 ?
Kan St +8 / over 50'
LT 
Troy
BYU / WYO  over
Tulsa
Indiana?
Ark
Col
Wash 1H
OU ????


Houston maybe best to stay away?......tough to tell how they play here

BUT...... 

*nice match-up edge on both sides of the ball for the Cougs
* SR QB likely playing his last game ever (as QB).....esp off loss last game.....tough to see Ward not wanting to finish strong here
 *continuity with OC MA now moving into HC role.....I esp like how DC TO staying ON for bowl....rather than leaving already for Texas (should get the DC job)
  *SDSU a team that REALLY picks their 'spots'....it seems.....Rocky not very good in bowl prep .......only won / covered 3 of last 10 bowls....> no covers as dog

New Mexico?......I think they win for sure + game is high scoring for sure......both bets not bad > teaser looks safe................
The impediment to action advances action - what stands in the way becomes the way.
 
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Posted: #93
Quote Originally Posted by Onthereal:

Any thoughts on Bama not winning the title?

Think I'm calling the sportsbook manager to put it in today.

Am I that crazy?


sorry man been BUSY.......
   * field....at +205 or so (last time I checked) ...not bad ??......

BEATABLE?.......until they replace the wacky humans with ROBOTS........sure
  *CAPABLE.....of having a bad game?.....sure

Maybe better to just bet Clemson?......I don't think Ohio State has much of a chance.....Huskies stay close for awhile maybe
  * maybe check out that boxscore from last year's game to build hope ha....DW shredded 'em pretty good ...............
 
The impediment to action advances action - what stands in the way becomes the way.
 
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Posted: #94
Quote Originally Posted by Urbanwildlife:

Dust off that large bank you have my friend, and load up on the  Houston Cougers this coming Saturday, as the Cougers are going to give Major Applewhite his first win AND COVER as a Head Coach.

It is my belief they will play there heart out for the guy to get him this win, and the defense will stop the ground attack of San Diego right in its tracks. I also do not feel the defense of the Aztecs can stop QB Ward the offensive of Houston.



yeah on that one too Urban.....................
  *waiting to see how things played out.....and for it to dip down to 3

Looks like DC Orlando will stay for the bowl (instead of leaving for Texas NOW) .......wonder what the hold up is ?.....Herman maybe looking / waiting for a 'bigger' name  

IMO.....the only way Cougs don't win / cover.....is a total no-show here......which makes little sense .....maybe they go crazy in Vegas tho.....ya never know............. 

The impediment to action advances action - what stands in the way becomes the way.
 
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Posted: #95
Quote Originally Posted by BandosWB:

BA - as always

You mentioned Arkansas State twice in this thread; as a team to bet on, and that they maybe roll.  As the matchup is a virtual true road game against UCF, do you still hold that opinion?

Focus: seems like a wash.  Ark St got blown out last year by La Tech which fits your criteria, but UCF was 0-12 LY, and now gets a home bowl game.  Lost last 2 to good teams in Tulsa and USF, eventually seems like that solid D got tired, but now they get a long break?!

Coaches: Seems like a wash as well.  Both good ones IMO.

Conf strength: Not even close.  Neither is SOS overall.  UCF has played the much harder schedule, and plays in a much more difficult conference.  Look at Arkansas States wins - eek, cept for the Troy win (5-0 turnovers)

No Common Oppponets

Distractions: Havent heard of anyone looking at Frost, nor BA.

INJ/SUSP: UCF seems a bit healthier at this point

Crowd: Its in Orlando, in the stadium that used to be there home stadium (granted they stopped playing there in 2006), but you would have to assume a huge HF advantage.

Match-up:  Both play really good D on paper.  UCF offense has been pretty bad all year, but do tend to get TO and FP to push a few in.  Arky St must pass effectively to move the ball.  Not so easy vs. UCF  (#12)

Line: right on the metrics.  UCF -6 is the right line.

Due to SOS, CONF strength, and Crowd, I am leaning UCF in this one.  What did I miss, or misread?

GL with the bowls


nice breakdown man........I like UCF a bit too.....most likely I'll make an in-game / halftime play here......> low scoring 1H....play team 2H that's clearly there to WIN.......and AHEAD probably
  * IF you look at their actual WINS.....it's kinda tough to tell how good UCF really is....

Ark St is capable here .....awesome group of transfers
  *you bet I mentioned them off a 40+ pt cover AT Troy....covering their last 6 or so (before ULL) by about 14 pts/g
 $  no bowl wins under HC BA.....so they'll be hungry here...
The impediment to action advances action - what stands in the way becomes the way.
 
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Posted: #96
Quote Originally Posted by alopez14325:

I like UCF in that one... I am thinking about taking Lamar Jackson -2200 to win the heisman.  I obviously dont like risking $2200, but I cant see him losing the award, and think it's probably an easy $100, but i'm not sure... anybody have an opinion?



yeah I saw that CRAZY thread you started ......
  * the boys actually gave you sound advice there   >  helll no

BOL buddy..................
The impediment to action advances action - what stands in the way becomes the way.
 
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Posted: #97
some conference ATS notes............


ACC       19-8 under in play-off / BCS games ( PO) games
                1-10 SU / 3-8 ATS vs P12
                8-9 / 10-7 vs SEC
                vs B10...the dog is 13-1-1 ATS

B10         PO games 10-6 / 11-4-1
               B12  5-16 / 12-9
               P12  4-4 / 5-3
               vs SEC  < 4 pt dog 4-16 ATS
                    *> 4 pt 14-10 ATS

B12         PO games 8-12 / 5-15
               12/25 > 1/1  25-9 under
              after 12/31   16-24 / 11-29
               < 9 pt dog  8-20 / 9-19....> 9    9-4 ATS
                $$$      SEC     5-21 / 5-20-1      $$$
               P12  13-7 / 12-8        

CUSA       19-7 / 17-8-1 run
                  UNDER  is 20-8 ATS
                   6-2 / 7-1 in Jan. bowls
                   as 7+ dog  13-7...< 7 dog  5-18 / 6-17
                   vs MAC   10-1 / 9-2
                      *fav in MAC games is 15-2 ATS

MAC         6-14 / 5-13 run
                   4-10 ATS in Jan bowls
                    < 12/25   12-10 / 13-9
                    > 12/25   7-20 / 5-22
                    10-2 over if favored
                    vs P5    0-12 / 2-10
                     vs SB  dogs are 10-2 ATS

MTW         < 12/25   9-14 / 10-13
                    as dog  23-12  OVER
                    vs P5  10-8 / 11-7
                     vs CUSA  13-2 under

P12              18-9 / 15-12 run
                    PO 14-8 / 16-6
                    < 12/25   10-15 / 9-16
                    4+ fav   24-9 ATS
                    4+ dog   19-5 ATS
                    < 3 dog  5-9 ATS

SEC              PO    16-7 / 15-8
                     if 3+ dog  22-15 / 25-12
                    12/25 > 1/1  13-11 / 10-14

SB                as dog   12-9 / 14-6-1
                     < 12/25   10-6 / 10-6
                     fav     3-7
                     under is 8-5-1
                         



The impediment to action advances action - what stands in the way becomes the way.
 
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Posted: #98
Quote Originally Posted by bookieassassin:

some conference ATS notes............


ACC       19-8 under in play-off / BCS games ( PO) games
                1-10 SU / 3-8 ATS vs P12
                8-9 / 10-7 vs SEC
                vs B10...the dog is 13-1-1 ATS

B10         PO games 10-6 / 11-4-1
               B12  5-16 / 12-9
               P12  4-4 / 5-3
               vs SEC  < 4 pt dog 4-16 ATS
                    *> 4 pt 14-10 ATS

B12         PO games 8-12 / 5-15
               12/25 > 1/1  25-9 under
              after 12/31   16-24 / 11-29
               < 9 pt dog  8-20 / 9-19....> 9    9-4 ATS
                $$$      SEC     5-21 / 5-20-1      $$$
               P12  13-7 / 12-8        

CUSA       19-7 / 17-8-1 run
                  UNDER  is 20-8 ATS
                   6-2 / 7-1 in Jan. bowls
                   as 7+ dog  13-7...< 7 dog  5-18 / 6-17
                   vs MAC   10-1 / 9-2
                      *fav in MAC games is 15-2 ATS

MAC         6-14 / 5-13 run
                   4-10 ATS in Jan bowls
                    < 12/25   12-10 / 13-9
                    > 12/25   7-20 / 5-22
                    10-2 over if favored
                    vs P5    0-12 / 2-10
                     vs SB  dogs are 10-2 ATS

MTW         < 12/25   9-14 / 10-13
                    as dog  23-12  OVER
                    vs P5  10-8 / 11-7
                     vs CUSA  13-2 under

P12              18-9 / 15-12 run
                    PO 14-8 / 16-6
                    < 12/25   10-15 / 9-16
                    4+ fav   24-9 ATS
                    4+ dog   19-5 ATS
                    < 3 dog  5-9 ATS

SEC              PO    16-7 / 15-8
                     if 3+ dog  22-15 / 25-12
                    12/25 > 1/1  13-11 / 10-14

SB                as dog   12-9 / 14-6-1
                     < 12/25   10-6 / 10-6
                     fav     3-7
                     under is 8-5-1
                         







MANY MANY THANKS FOR YOUR ART 
BEST OF HEALTH, HAPPINESS,WEALTH, BLESSINGS and LUCK TO ALL !!
 
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Posted: #99
The only thing that concerns me about Houston is that they were "relegated" to a bowl...
 
 
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Posted: #100
Quote Originally Posted by Sabanesque:

like

Army  +10   
S Caro  +10'
Memphis  +5
Fla St  +8
WF  +14
Clemson +3'
Houston  -3


Nice picks there, that I also like very much. Army is -10, not +10. Army was -17 and fumbled 7 times. No way they reset that debacle, but I think the line is sharp, and N. Texas in their home state will play them close. 

Clemson and Ohio State have both played close games with a majority of their schedule; since 3 is the most common scoreboard difference statistically, I am thinking of a large play on Clemson at that number--a game I think they win SU anyway. 

I like SDSU w/ Pumphries being a respected RB and getting a lot of attention--but we have seen Houston shut down great RBs--esp Cook of FSU. You don't seem to mind the change in HC (as you do in Temple. Maybe this is a positive change going w/ Applewhite who knows Texas players and coaches (?). I might skip this game, but You winning big wouldn't surprise, as SDSU too tentative.


they didn't play fsu.
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