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Bowl Season - Dec 19 to Dec 30

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Posted: #27
Raycom Mastercard Southwest Airlines CAMELLIA BOWL 

App St 7.5 Ohio (54)

Megalocks line 6

Sagarin 8

Very interesting matchup if you are a degenerate like us ...Ohio has battled a ton of injuries and unsettled QB situation and still managed to get 8 wins and a bowl invite....After a bowl snub last year they are probably going to be adequately motivated. App St won 10 games and is playing in their first ever bowl game. No doubt they will be happy to be there. Game on.

Ohio finished the season with 3 wins including an upset over NIU who "needed" the game and have managed to scrap stab and crawl their way to 8 wins...Balanced on offense and a decent D - really no gaping holes on this team so you have to show up to beat them they can be overwhelmed with firepower but App St strength in the running game and have no receiver with over 500Y and #1 is out. App St will have the 2 best offensive players on the field IMO in RB Cox and QB Lamb. Ohio going to find it tough to score on a 10-win team with the #1 RZ D.

App St only losses were to an Ark St team that ran the Sun Belt and Clemson. Our SUN BELT INSIDERS remind everyone that App St is on a 16-2 SU run the last 18 games  on average playing teams like Ohio so they are a TOUGH fade imo in this game. And remember - every website on the internet including tampons dot com will tell you JUST PICK THE STRAIGHT UP WINNER AND YOU WILL COVER THE SPREAD....well that is ROCKET SCIENCE is that ALL i have to DO ? pick the straigh up winner ??? WOW this is SOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO easy ! Reminds me of backfitting model guy who will tell you based on historical stats that bowl teams playing on a monday with a QB named Chet are 1890-1 ATS. 

Summary. Hard to pick a side in this one. Would have pounded App St -3 but obviously no go there - cannot lay 7+. Lean to the under at 53 or better.

mega


 
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Posted: #28
Quote Originally Posted by FoolishGame:

CAPPER OF THE YEAR




TY


thanks buddy !! BOL this bowl season....
 
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Zoot  legend ! always good to hear from you. Agree - this game has so many similarities to the Nevada/Az game...GL !

SCC - cannot argue with WK .....We think the Clemson line will close at 3 max but might be wrong. GL !

TAMU 

buckeye - .......New Mex can justify a small potatoes action play on NM at +10 now - will need to mull it over the next day or so to endorse for official play

Johnny  great to chat with you all year......Have a major lean on BYU game just waiting a bit before launch - GL !

Big Ern !!!!!!!!!!!!!

dish 

LV 

doggs 


 
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Posted: #30
Mega, I am definitely looking forward to your take on the sin city holy war. I had the fortune of participating in this rivalry in the early part of this century. I try to avoid betting BYU games, but might go with my gut, particularly if it aligns with your take.
 
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Posted: #31
Cadillac Jessica Alba Nude Photo Citibank NEW ORLEANS BOWL

La Tech 2 Ark St (67)

Megalocks line pk em

Sagarin Ark St 1.5 

Going to be honest. Hard to find a play in here. As much as the over looks tasty - we like betting overs as much as getting our nutsack stapled to a tree soooooooooooo.....may be laying off this one.

Ark St rocked through the Sun Belt and FINALLY get out 18 straight Go Daddy Bowls and coming off last yr bowl loss when they gave up over 60 have to think they will be at least a bit motivated.....LT did not get to their conf title game which was a disappointment and won their BG last year so not sure about their motivation?????

I know it is hard to get over a 36 yr old Driskel playing QB for LT after he ruined a decade of Gators football - but LT put together a decent 8 wins season. Like we said above however - not sure that this is what they wanted at the start of the season. They finished the season with a squeeker win vs UTEP followed by getting taken to the woodshed by S Miss....now this.....Think they have enough balanced and a good enough D to give Ark St trouble but just not sure?? FWIW Skipper is 3-3 SU in bowl games.

Ark St rolled thru the Sun Belt and we would not want any part of them right now.....scored 40 59 52 55 last 4 games and put up 37+ in 8 games this year...QB is healthy.

Summary. Lean Ark St but would want +3 for sure. Gonna pass for now.

mega



 
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Posted: #32
Quote Originally Posted by BYUdline56:

Mega, I am definitely looking forward to your take on the sin city holy war. I had the fortune of participating in this rivalry in the early part of this century. I try to avoid betting BYU games, but might go with my gut, particularly if it aligns with your take.

 i can give you a teaser - NO way i am playing Utah
 
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Posted: #33
Quote Originally Posted by MEGALOCKS:

Quote Originally Posted by BYUdline56:

Mega, I am definitely looking forward to your take on the sin city holy war. I had the fortune of participating in this rivalry in the early part of this century. I try to avoid betting BYU games, but might go with my gut, particularly if it aligns with your take.
 i can give you a teaser - NO way i am playing Utah

That is what I had hoped for!
 
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Posted: #34
Quote Originally Posted by MEGALOCKS:

Zoot  legend ! always good to hear from you. Agree - this game has so many similarities to the Nevada/Az game...GL !


Hahaha appreciate that my man

I saw your statement of No way you're playing Utah
Love to hear more on that as I was considering a Utes play 
 
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Posted: #35
Reminds me of backfitting model guy who will tell you based on historical stats that bowl teams playing on a monday with a QB named Chet are 1890-1 ATS. 


Brilliant haha
 
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Posted: #36
hey MEGA--

is this still a play at +2.5 or do u recommend buying to 3?

or just forget the spread and take ML @ +115?
 
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Posted: #37
^^^Dude, he said he would want 3 to even consider playing it AKA no way is he playing it at 2.5. If you think Ark St can/will win the game just bet them ML since spread rarely comes into play. Don't lose the juice that way either.

Mega, just curious as to why you don't like playing overs? Only been around your thread a month or so, so don't think I've seen the reason.
 
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Posted: #38
bol  thanks for everything pal.
 
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Posted: #39
BYU 

Zoot ....Gonna post that write-up later today been sitting on it waiting for line moves not gonna happen. 

Ken 

thaknuts - buckeye is right - as per my write-up its a pass at any number other than 3 BUT if you want some small potatoes degenerate action - sure take a small taste of the ML. GL 

buckeye......Well we have nothing against overs except that we are way better at picking unders so we play to our personal strength. Same thing with DD favs. Maybe play 1-2 a year. 

JVH .....glad somebody appreciated that gem....Hard to throw in modeling jokes and keep the attention of the masses - GL !
 
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Posted: #40
THREAD SUMMARY

picks

S Florida +3   

Game write-ups can be found here

USF/WK (post 3)
New Mex / Arizona (11)
App St / Ohio (27)
LTech / Ark St (31)


 
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Posted: #41
AutoNation Sham-Wow British Airways CURE BOWL

San Jose St 3 Georgia St (54)

Megalocks line 2

Sagarin 2.5

Seems like a real tough one to call to us. Of course you can solve everything by listening to Useless-System-Unless-You-Have-A-Time-Machine Guy.....just pick the straight up winner !! If you know THAT - you will win most bets. It's that easy !! oh wait ???

San Jose found their way into this game with 5 wins - but to be honest - they should provide an interesting matchup with Ga St....a team that WON their last FOUR games to get to this game including a SU win as a 20+ point dog vs Ga Southern in the last game of the season. A great accomplishment for this team IMO....one win last 2 seasons combined and now a bowl game. Very cool. Gotta be jacked up. Which also begs the question - yes SJ is thankful - but have to believe Ga St will have the motivational edge if indeed any team does. Will it matter? You never really know.

SJ has one of the best RB you do not get to see - Ervin has almost 1500Y and 13 TD....QB play is decent - Harry Potter can run a bit and MATRICULATE in the passing game....They are balanced on offense - and their weakness is run D (#108) but Ga St does not run the ball well and not often either (#123 rush O) so worried that this might be a bad matchup for Ga St....Now statistically SJ St very good vs the pass but they have not played many good passing QBs at all.....Ga St Arbuckle has over 4000Y and the Spartans will be tested......A minor note for the game - SJ does play smart - take very few penalties - and excellent at playing field position with punting game....Do not cause many turnovers tho.

Last 3 SJ St totals - 71(OT) 65 63...preceded by the snot bubbler one point loss to BYU 17-16.....Ga St last totals - 34 52 41. Having a hard time getting a handle on the total as well. 

Summary. No play on this one. Ga St D is underrated - if we had to make a correct pick or leave Covers forever after a Derek Jeter tour receiving countless worthless gifts and statues and decorative cakes - we would probably take the SJ TT under 29.5 for a small potatoes action play. Just don't know to be honest. Tough call.

mega 


 
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Posted: #42
Love the Ark St. write up. Might play that baby. I followed you on USF VS WK though so I'll either hate you for life or love you like you do (ELLEN GOULDING??).

Other games I'm looking at right now that I absolutely love:

SDSU -1.5 vs CINN (burned me last last week. They should've covered vs AirForce but they were just on cruise control entire game).
Michigan -4.5 vs Florida (Bounce back game for Michigan after getting shat on by Ohio State)
Stanford -6.5 vs Iowa. I know a TD is a lot to lay vs a previous undefeated team into the final week of the season that probably thinks they should be in the college playoff. But that's where I'm at. Mentally speaking they're probably not going to be in this game knowing they could've been in the Final Four instead only if they had beaten MSU. Plus as good as their defense was vs MSU, Stanford should be able to move the chains a lot easier with the Mccaffrey

These won't be until next next weekend so I can wait and do more research prior to making any plays. Including which I hope you get a chance to look at.
 
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Posted: #43
Quote Originally Posted by SCC:

Love the Ark St. write up. Might play that baby. I followed you on USF VS WK though so I'll either hate you for life or love you like you do (ELLEN GOULDING??).

Other games I'm looking at right now that I absolutely love:

SDSU -1.5 vs CINN (burned me last last week. They should've covered vs AirForce but they were just on cruise control entire game).
Michigan -4.5 vs Florida (Bounce back game for Michigan after getting shat on by Ohio State)
Stanford -6.5 vs Iowa. I know a TD is a lot to lay vs a previous undefeated team into the final week of the season that probably thinks they should be in the college playoff. But that's where I'm at. Mentally speaking they're probably not going to be in this game knowing they could've been in the Final Four instead only if they had beaten MSU. Plus as good as their defense was vs MSU, Stanford should be able to move the chains a lot easier with the Mccaffrey

These won't be until next next weekend so I can wait and do more research prior to making any plays. Including which I hope you get a chance to look at.

With you on Michigan.  

Careful with fading Iowa.  Not being a homer, but Iowa will come ready to play.  Don't get my wrong, the loss to MSU stings and I am sure bothers the guys.  But that will not be on their mind playing in the Rose Bowl.  It's been 25 years since Iowa has been to Pasadena.  They are excited and will be ready to play.  

McCaffrey will be hard to slow down, without a doubt.  I think Hogan will have some big plays as well.  I think both teams will put up numbers.  Remember this, Stanford gives up around 5 yards per rush.  Iowa has a strong offensive long and a stable of running backs to use.  Iowa will get their yards on the ground and score some points.  

I think the line is inflated a tad and feel it should be closer to 4/4.5.  It will be closer than people think.

BOL 
 
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Posted: #44
Quote Originally Posted by SCC:

Love the Ark St. write up. Might play that baby. I followed you on USF VS WK though so I'll either hate you for life or love you like you do (ELLEN GOULDING??).

Other games I'm looking at right now that I absolutely love:

SDSU -1.5 vs CINN (burned me last last week. They should've covered vs AirForce but they were just on cruise control entire game).
Michigan -4.5 vs Florida (Bounce back game for Michigan after getting shat on by Ohio State)
Stanford -6.5 vs Iowa. I know a TD is a lot to lay vs a previous undefeated team into the final week of the season that probably thinks they should be in the college playoff. But that's where I'm at. Mentally speaking they're probably not going to be in this game knowing they could've been in the Final Four instead only if they had beaten MSU. Plus as good as their defense was vs MSU, Stanford should be able to move the chains a lot easier with the Mccaffrey

These won't be until next next weekend so I can wait and do more research prior to making any plays. Including which I hope you get a chance to look at.

With you on Michigan.  

Careful with fading Iowa.  Not being a homer, but Iowa will come ready to play.  Don't get my wrong, the loss to MSU stings and I am sure bothers the guys.  But that will not be on their mind playing in the Rose Bowl.  It's been 25 years since Iowa has been to Pasadena.  They are excited and will be ready to play.  

McCaffrey will be hard to slow down, without a doubt.  I think Hogan will have some big plays as well.  I think both teams will put up numbers.  Remember this, Stanford gives up around 5 yards per rush.  Iowa has a strong offensive long and a stable of running backs to use.  Iowa will get their yards on the ground and score some points.  

I think the line is inflated a tad and feel it should be closer to 4/4.5.  It will be closer than people think.

BOL 
 
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Posted: #45
Quote Originally Posted by TDHAWKS:


With you on Michigan.  

Careful with fading Iowa.  Not being a homer, but Iowa will come ready to play.  Don't get my wrong, the loss to MSU stings and I am sure bothers the guys.  But that will not be on their mind playing in the Rose Bowl.  It's been 25 years since Iowa has been to Pasadena.  They are excited and will be ready to play.  

McCaffrey will be hard to slow down, without a doubt.  I think Hogan will have some big plays as well.  I think both teams will put up numbers.  Remember this, Stanford gives up around 5 yards per rush.  Iowa has a strong offensive long and a stable of running backs to use.  Iowa will get their yards on the ground and score some points.  

I think the line is inflated a tad and feel it should be closer to 4/4.5.  It will be closer than people think.

BOL 


. I will definitely wait till the day before I bet on Stanford. I think line moves closer to 5 prior to game, but we'll see. Lots of early bet seems to be towards Stanford. LOVING Michigan though for sure. Florida has just been terrible. I'm not sure if 2weeks rest would do anything for them but man, they were lucky to even cover vs Alabama (I bet Florida so I watched the game ). Michigan has the foundation for a bright future. Puts a stamp on that future against Florida with a Bowl win resoundingly. This is the same Michigan team that shut out 3 teams in 3 consecutive weeks. Not many teams can do that. Florida QB on the other hand is dumpster fire.
 
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Posted: #46
Quote Originally Posted by buckeyefan80:

^^^Dude, he said he would want 3 to even consider playing it AKA no way is he playing it at 2.5. If you think Ark St can/will win the game just bet them ML since spread rarely comes into play. Don't lose the juice that way either.

Mega, just curious as to why you don't like playing overs? Only been around your thread a month or so, so don't think I've seen the reason.



MEGA---


i was actually referring to your actual pick on USF when i asked my question...

it is currently +2.5, which isnt a line that comes into play that often so i was wondering if i should buy up to 3 or just roll the dice at the ML.....
 
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Posted: #47
thaknuts  i would just take shot on the ML buying to 3 is always expensive. GL pal !

SCC .....Have not looked at those games yet; SD St game tough due to the contrast in styles and Cincy's ability to point shave ....Not crazy about laying any points vs Florida but that is just me....If i was playing Stanford i might grab it now i think it might close at 7 but could be wrong....I would lean iowa at that number i think but need to dig. GL !

TDHawks  thanks for chiming in pal - enjoy the Rose Bowl !


 
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Posted: #48
Royal Purple Headed Warrior LAS VEGAS BOWL 

Utah 2.5 BYU 52

Megalocks line 3

Sagarin 4

Kinda got caught with our pants down here - were looking at a Utah TT under as a release - but it was only available at a small limit at one book - so we waited as usual until it was readily available for you guys - now that it is - not sure we are on board.....yet. Number too low.

Should be another emotion-filled version of the Holy War - this one is the very Utah/BYU bowl matchup with many interesting storylines. Do not need to get into them all - but Utah's offense is depleted with injuries. Is the HC on the hot seat? Is he leaving to go somewhere else? BYU HC and staff heading to Virginia after the game. Mendenhall did a very good job there and is very well respected for he work there for over a decade. The cool thing is that he has had his troubles vs Utah - but if he could get this one - it would be win #100 in a Holy War victory. Not sure if we heard this correctly - our MW CONFERENCE INSIDER told us that the players are going to have core values instead of names on the back of their shirts. Kinda neat.

We all know Utah started out very strongly - but sputtered down the stretch as injuries took hold and the inconsistent QB play was not enough. They have only covered 2 games since September. last 3 games lost to Az and UCLA and squeaked by Colorado...D still played well in those last 2 games but the offeense scored only 29 in those 2 games. They are decimated with injuries on offense. Top RB Booker is out - BUT we will say Williams had 121 187 in his 2 games so it would have been a classic - fade the perception of injury that does not matter BUT they will also be missing most of their top receivers and top 2 TE. Seeing how they are struggling to move the ball and how fired up the BYU D will be - hard to imagine them scoring many points. We will say they win with running, defense and special teams at that should all be fine.

BYU always frustrating to bet on. Somehow it is always closer than you want it to be. They have lost the last 4 to Utah and the key in those games as our MW CONFERENCE INSIDERS tell us is that BYU was -11 in turnover margin in those games. That is the key here. Can they not puke all over themselves with turnovers? Their QB is good. Can run a bit but not sure against utah. Their D will give Utah fits. They scored 103 pts last 2 games. Think they have a really good shot to win this one - especially with the depletion on Utah's side and their perceived emotional edge.

We cannot ignore Utah HC 7-1 record in bowl games. Only loss was as a 17 pt dog to Boise. That is an impossible fade right there. No? On the flipside - appears to us BYU has the opportunity and talent to get it done here. Hmmmm.

Summary. Game appears to be a tossup. No way can we touch Utah the way they are playing + injury cluster on offense. BYU ? Utah seems to have their number lately.and would want 4+ to take a shot with the. Lean to Utah TT under 27 (it was 28.5) if you can get it or under 52 but no lower. We might have just missed the train on this one. It happens.

BOL ! mega




 
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Posted: #49
Quote Originally Posted by MEGALOCKS:

THREAD SUMMARY

picks

S Florida +3   

Game write-ups can be found here

USF/WK (post 3)
New Mex / Arizona (11)
App St / Ohio (27)
LTech / Ark St (31)
SJ St / Ga St (41)
BYU / Utah (48)


 
 
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new mexico now +7,5 pinnacle 
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